GLENDALE, Ariz. -- There seems to be a hint of a rivalry in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal. The last time these teams met, it was in this very location three years ago in the last Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
Clemson won 31-0 on its way to its first national championship. In 2014, Tajh Boyd threw five touchdown passes against the Buckeyes in a 40-35 Orange Bowl win. Overall, the Tigers have won all three meetings between these teams all-time.
In climbing to the top of the college football world this decade, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is 2-0 against Ohio State. Three in a row makes it more than a trend.
It would have to be a concern in Columbus, Ohio. You see, they're starting to whisper that it has been all of … five years … since Ohio State's last national title.
Either way, the result should be an outlier. The 10 previous CFP semifinals have been decided by an average of 21 points. This one is expected go down to the wire. Clemson enters as a 2.5-point favorite.
The Tigers have broken enough Buckeye hearts. Will the trend continue? Here are five things to watch in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday night.
1. Top-tier quarterback battle: Let's not complicate things. This game comes down to the quarterbacks. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley cut to the chase this week. "You want to talk about two special quarterbacks," he said. "This is the future of the NFL playing in this game." Never mind both Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State's Justin Fields have another year of eligibility left before they go to the NFL. Something has to give.
We're talking two elite quarterbacks against two elite defenses. Fields has a 40-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio; that might have never been accomplished before. After a slow start, Lawrence has not thrown an interception in the second half of the season. The first defense to slow down one of these star QBs gets a jump on what figures to be a tight game.
Advantage, Clemson: Fields revealed Tuesday he is "80-85 percent" 24 days after reinjuring a sprained MCL in the Michigan game. That has to be concerning to Ohio State. We know this because, at Thursday's media day, Fields suddenly said he couldn't talk about his injury.
2. Top-tier running back battle: Sensing a trend here? J.K. Dobbins has almost quietly become the No. 2 rusher in Ohio State history. That is bound to happen when you carry the ball 100 times for 583 yards in your last three games. Ohio State runs to set up the pass. Don't expect that to change against Clemson. As effective as Fields has been, he must have Dobbins churning out yards behind OSU's stellar offensive line in order for its spread and RPOs to work.
"There is a point where you should punch at your opponent's head. We try and do that," Dobbins said laughing. "We emphasize the point where you should punch. That's where we try to punch every time."
Thanks to Dobbins, Ohio State is in the top 10 nationally in runs of at least 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 yards.
Clemson types are still upset Travis Etienne wasn't even a Doak Walker Award finalist. In fact, Clemson was the only team not represented among the Heisman Trophy finalists. Which running back is better? Etienne was down slightly in rushing yards year-over-year (1,658 to 1,500), but he has never been more productive, averaging more than 8.2 yards per rush and producing almost 1,800 yards from scrimmage.
3. Clemson has to score first … because, when it does, it wins. Almost always. The Tigers have won 50 in a row when putting the first points on the board. That's more than a curious statistic. While that probably shouldn't be a surprise given the program's ascension to dominance, it is something to watch in a game that is expected to be close.
It's also an indicator that Clemson seldom gets punch back from its opponents. What happens if, say, Ohio State gets out to an early 10-0 lead? We simply haven't seen the Tigers in a crisis situation against an elite program since early last season. (North Carolina isn't an elite program. Both playoff wins last year came by a combined 55 points.)
4. Playing the disrespect card: Clemson has bought into coach Dabo Swinney's contention that it hasn't been properly evaluated this season. Let's face it. It's hard to judge Clemson in ACC play. By some metrics, the conference was rated below the Pac-12 and the AAC. The Tigers have won their last 28 games by an average of 33.3 points. They are 54-2 in their last 56 ACC games. It's one thing talking about it. It's another using that motivation. Ohio State isn't fooled.
5. The Chase Young Effect: The country's best defender hasn't been the country's best defender lately. I asked Ohio State's star defensive end how he keeps NFL riches out of his head at this point. "I still have a job to finish," Young told me. "We have a job to finish. We can't really look into the future until you have the task at hand."
The fact remains that Young is most likely going to be the No. 1 or No. 2 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. However, his last two games have not been great: zero tackles against Michigan, 1.5 tackles for loss against Wisconsin. No sacks since Nov. 23.
"It's a respect thing," Young said. "If you watch the game(s), I was getting double and triple teamed every play. It definitely gives my end on the other side a chance to make a play."
Young can change a game with his presence. If Lawrence is allowed time to set his feet and look downfield, he'll be the one changing the game.
So who will win the Fiesta Bowl between Clemson and Ohio State, and which side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up almost $4,000 on its top-rated picks.
