No. 3 Ohio State plays host to No. 7 Penn State on Saturday in a battle of undefeated Big Ten East teams who are both trying to get one step closer to a conference title and earn a College Football Playoff spot. Other than the Buckeyes' annual rivalry with Michigan, this has become the division's -- and perhaps the conference's -- other top matchup. It's a game that's been circled on the calendar since the Big Ten first released its schedule, and both teams did their part to set the stage for this top-10 clash.
So far, the scare for either team was Ohio State's road win against Notre Dame when the Buckeyes needed a last-second touchdown to escape South Bend, Indiana. Otherwise, the they have won by an average of 31 points per game.
Then there's Penn State, which has cruised all year. The Nittany Lions have won their six games by an average of 36.3 points, with the closest contest being a 17-point road win against Illinois. That lack of close games has led to the Nittany Lions being one of only two teams that are undefeated straight up and against the spread (the other being Oklahoma). However, this will be the toughest test the Nittany Lions have faced so far.
We're going to learn a lot about both these teams Saturday.
How to watch Ohio State vs. Penn State live
Date: Saturday, October 21 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Ohio Stadium -- Columbus, Ohio
TV: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Ohio State vs. Penn State: Need to know
Ohio State's red zone struggles have lowered offense's ceiling: Ohio State is scoring 36 points per game, which is nothing to sneeze at, but the Buckeyes have averaged at least 40 points per game in each of the past six seasons. There are a lot of contributing factors -- injuries, turnover at quarterback and offensive line -- but the inability to finish drives has hurt. Ohio State has scored touchdowns on only 60.9% of its red zone possessions this season. That's below the national average (62.3%) and ranks No. 69 nationally. It hasn't cost them a game to this point, but it could easily against better competition. You know, like Penn State.
Nearly half of Penn State's defensive snaps have resulted in a loss or no gain: There are a lot of stats I could use to show how incredible the Penn State defense has been, but this one is my favorite by far. The Nittany Lions have stopped opponents for a loss or no gain on 46.4% of their defensive snaps. That's ridiculous! The second-highest rate is Utah at 43.3% and the national average is 33.6%. You aren't going to give up many points when your opponent barely manages to gain yards on half their plays.
History is not on Penn State's side: Penn State has lost 14 straight road games against AP top-five opponents; its last win was at No. 5 Michigan in 1994. Eight of those 14 losses have come against Ohio State, and the Nittany Lions have lost six straight games in this series. Making matters worse, three of those six have come when both teams were ranked in the top 10. Oh, and the Buckeyes have won five straight against Penn State in Columbus and 12 of the 14 meetings at Ohio Stadium since Penn State joined the Big Ten. The last time Penn State beat Ohio State as a top-five team in Columbus was 1964. What I'm saying is that Penn State will have to buck a lot of trends to pick up the win this weekend.
Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction, picks
Odds via SportsLine consensus
I picked Penn State to cover the spread in our expert picks, but that's more of a reflection of how I feel the game will be played than it is confidence in Penn State. I have far more confidence in both of these defenses than the offenses. My gut feeling is that this will be a close, low-scoring contest, and neither team will be capable of pulling away. If I'm betting anything here, it's the under. Pick: Under 45.5
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