The SMU Mustangs will try to build on their recent history when No. 16 Southern Methodist visits the Houston Cougars in an AAC West matchup on Thursday night. The Mustangs have lost 13 of the last 17 meetings with the Cougars, but defeated ranked Houston teams twice in the past three years. Now, the Cougars are the ranked team and unbeaten at 7-0 after rolling past Temple, 45-21. SMU boasts one of the top passing offenses in the nation and is strong on the other side of the ball as well. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at TDECU Stadium. The Mustangs are 13.5-point favorites in the latest SMU vs. Houston odds after the spread moved as high as 14.5, while the over-under is 65.5. Before entering your Houston vs. SMU picks, you should see the latest college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen huge returns. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread.

The model enters Week 9 of the 2019 season on a strong run, going 92-59 on its top-rated college football picks. It also called Illinois (+30.5) easily staying within the spread against No. 6 Wisconsin last week in one of the largest upsets of the entire season. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now, it has broken down SMU vs. Houston. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. That pick is only available at SportsLine. 

The model knows SMU quarterback Shane Buechele is seventh in the nation with 2,122 passing yards and threw for 457 yards and six touchdowns last Saturday against Temple. He has a pair of outstanding receivers in Reggie Roberson and James Proche. Roberson and Buechele hooked up for touchdowns of 33, 60 and 75 yards last week. Xavier Jones has 751 yards and 12 touchdowns to lead a rushing attack that averages 205.7 yards per game. 

The Mustangs' defense allows 370.1 yards, is tied for second in the nation with 29 sacks and has forced 14 turnovers. SMU has eight interceptions, led by senior safety Rodney Clemons' three. Sophomore cornerback Ar'mani Johnson has two and returned one for a 64-yard score. Safety Pat Nelson has 7.5 sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery.

But just because the Mustangs appear to be on cruise control doesn't mean they will will cover the SMU vs. Houston spread on Thursday.

The home team has won four straight and is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between the teams, and Houston will count on its defense. Nickel back Grant Stuard makes plays all over the field, leading the team with 63 tackles. Sophomore linebacker Donavan Mutin has contributed 33 tackles and an interception, while David Anenih has 5.5 sacks. 

With the quarterback situation unsettled with standout D'Eriq King redshirting following a 1-3 start and replacement Clayton Tune questionable with a hamstring injury, the Cougars will rely heavily on its running backs. Kyle Porter has run for 448 yards and three touchdowns, while Chandler Smith has run for 124 yards and averages 6.2 per carry.

So who wins Houston vs. Southern Methodist? And which side of the spread is hitting nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Houston vs. SMU spread to back on Thursday, all from the advanced model on a 92-59 run.