We can try to be as logical as possible, but nobody is perfect. You're going to hold on just a bit tighter to that hot starter you acquired for a pittance and you might be just a bit more willing to trade that slumping star if you reached for him in the first place. It's only natural.
Taking advantage of this is a smart thing to do, by targeting those early-round picks who are undoubtedly upsetting their owners with their early performance. There is no guarantee these players will turn things around and live up to their preseason expectations but if you can get them at a discount, they don't have to. So, here are my five favorite players to target in a buy-low deal and what I'd be looking to offer for them:
Manny Machado reminds me of where Anthony Rizzo was at this point last season. He has been an objectively disappointing player for a first-round pick, but there really aren't any warning signs to note; he is still hitting for power and actually has a better walk-to-strikeout ratio than he did last season. However, he hasn't had much success on balls in play, just like Rizzo, who was hitting just .239 on this date a year ago. Rizzo hit .312/.389/.557 from that point on, and there is every reason to believe the same will happen for Machado. I don't think you would get much of a discount for Machado, even amid a slow-ish start, but if I could swap Corey Seager or Xander Bogaerts -- both currently outscoring him – I would do it in an instant. I still have Machado as the top option at the position
Trea Turner doesn't have the track record of some other early-round picks, which is why he was significantly riskier than most people might have acknowledged. He was incredible last season – like, best player in Fantasy-good – but it was just one 73-game sample size that had plenty of red flags. A late-first round cost didn't price in enough risk, but that risk has almost entirely been absorbed by whoever drafted him. Turner still has 50-plus steal potential, and with just a .290 BABIP to his name – compared to a .388 mark last season in the majors, plus a .388 mark for his minor-league career – it's fair to expect plenty of regression on his batted balls. He might not return first-round value, but if I had a chance to swap him for Francisco Lindor, the current leader at shortstop in Fantasy scoring, I would do it. At a different position, I wouldn't hesitate to swap a quick-starting pitcher like Zack Greinke for him either.
By everything except results, Rougned Odor looks like pretty much the same guy he was a year ago. He is actually showing improved plate discipline, which is a nice sign, and his hard-hit rate stands at an identical 35.4 percent. The hot streak is coming, and you want to be there when it gets here – if I could swap someone like Dylan Bundy for him, I'd pull the trigger on it.
Something those last two players have in common is less-than-ideal plate discipline, and we'll just continue that trend with Khris Davis. Davis is always going to strike out a lot, but he is walking more than ever this season, and always hits for enough power to make up for it. He'll never win a batting title, sure, but a .219 average just isn't representative of his talent. Davis is ice cold right now, but still sports a massive 48.1 percent hard-hit rate for the season and is always on the verge of a hot streak, like Odor. I would still value Davis over someone like Marcell Ozuna, so put out some feelers for a sell-high/buy-low move like that.
You're hoping the last three will make up for their plate discipline deficiencies with some kind of elite skill elsewhere, but the opposite is true for Andrew McCutchen. He doesn't really stand out anymore, but his ability to draw a walk and put the ball in play should give him a nice floor, especially in H2H scoring. The problem is, his .214 BABIP is dragging everything else down with it. I wouldn't expect McCutchen to be an elite BABIP player like he was at his peak, but there's no real reason he can't get back to where he was last season. A .280 average is going to make him look a lot better, and I would see if I could move McCutchen for as cheap as someone like Adam Duvall.
| H2H Points Trade Chart | ||||||||
| Rank | Player | Team | Value | |||||
| 1 | Mike Trout | LAA (OF) | 48 | |||||
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt | ARI (1B) | 45 | |||||
| 3 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD (SP) | 45 | |||||
| 4 | Mookie Betts | BOS (OF) | 44 | |||||
| 5 | Bryce Harper | WAS (OF) | 43 | |||||
| 6 | Jose Altuve | HOU (2B) | 42 | |||||
| 7 | Nolan Arenado | COL (3B) | 40 | |||||
| 8 | Kris Bryant | CHC (3B) | 39 | |||||
| 9 | Manny Machado | BAL (3B) | 39 | |||||
| 10 | Joey Votto | CIN (1B) | 37 | |||||
| 11 | Anthony Rizzo | CHC (1B) | 36 | |||||
| 12 | Charlie Blackmon | COL (OF) | 36 | |||||
| 13 | Chris Sale | BOS (SP) | 33 | |||||
| 14 | Max Scherzer | WAS (SP) | 32 | |||||
| 15 | Josh Donaldson | TOR (3B) | 31 | |||||
| 16 | A.J. Pollock | ARI (OF) | 30 | |||||
| 17 | Carlos Correa | HOU (SS) | 30 | |||||
| 18 | Miguel Cabrera | DET (1B) | 30 | |||||
| 19 | Edwin Encarnacion | CLE (DH) | 27 | |||||
| 20 | Corey Seager | LAD (SS) | 27 | |||||
| 21 | Daniel Murphy | WAS (2B) | 27 | |||||
| 22 | Trea Turner | WAS (OF) | 26 | |||||
| 23 | Corey Kluber | CLE (SP) | 26 | |||||
| 24 | Jake Arrieta | CHC (SP) | 26 | |||||
| 25 | Nelson Cruz | SEA (DH) | 26 | |||||
| 26 | Matt Carpenter | STL (3B) | 26 | |||||
| 27 | Jon Lester | CHC (SP) | 25 | |||||
| 28 | Giancarlo Stanton | MIA (OF) | 25 | |||||
| 29 | Brian Dozier | MIN (2B) | 24 | |||||
| 30 | Francisco Lindor | CLE (SS) | 23 | |||||
| 31 | Robinson Cano | SEA (2B) | 23 | |||||
| 32 | Jacob deGrom | NYM (SP) | 23 | |||||
| 33 | Justin Verlander | DET (SP) | 22 | |||||
| 34 | Zack Greinke | ARI (SP) | 22 | |||||
| 35 | Kyle Seager | SEA (3B) | 21 | |||||
| 36 | Chris Archer | TB (SP) | 21 | |||||
| 37 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS (SP) | 21 | |||||
| 38 | Buster Posey | SF (C) | 21 | |||||
| 39 | Jean Segura | SEA (2B) | 21 | |||||
| 40 | Miguel Sano | MIN (3B) | 21 | |||||
| 41 | Ryan Braun | MIL (OF) | 20 | |||||
| 42 | Carlos Gonzalez | COL (OF) | 20 | |||||
| 43 | Kenley Jansen | LAD (RP) | 20 | |||||
| 44 | Johnny Cueto | SF (SP) | 20 | |||||
| 45 | Yu Darvish | TEX (SP) | 20 | |||||
| 46 | Jonathan Lucroy | TEX (C) | 20 | |||||
| 47 | Wil Myers | SD (1B) | 20 | |||||
| 48 | Eric Thames | MIL (OF) | 20 | |||||
| 49 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE (SP) | 19 | |||||
| 50 | Xander Bogaerts | BOS (SS) | 19 | |||||
| 51 | Dallas Keuchel | HOU (SP) | 19 | |||||
| 52 | George Springer | HOU (OF) | 18 | |||||
| 53 | Rougned Odor | TEX (2B) | 18 | |||||
| 54 | Carlos Santana | CLE (DH) | 18 | |||||
| 55 | Jonathan Villar | MIL (SS) | 18 | |||||
| 56 | Christian Yelich | MIA (OF) | 18 | |||||
| 57 | Wade Davis | CHC (RP) | 18 | |||||
| 58 | Gary Sanchez | NYY (C) | 17 | |||||
| 59 | Masahiro Tanaka | NYY (SP) | 17 | |||||
| 60 | Chris Davis | BAL (1B) | 16 | |||||
| 61 | Gerrit Cole | PIT (SP) | 16 | |||||
| 62 | Andrew Benintendi | BOS (OF) | 16 | |||||
| 63 | Jose Abreu | CHW (1B) | 16 | |||||
| 64 | Aaron Judge | NYY (OF) | 16 | |||||
| 65 | Salvador Perez | KC (C) | 16 | |||||
| 66 | Craig Kimbrel | BOS (RP) | 16 | |||||
| 67 | Willson Contreras | CHC (C) | 16 | |||||
| 68 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC (SP) | 16 | |||||
| 69 | Michael Conforto | NYM (OF) | 16 | |||||
| 70 | Yasmani Grandal | LAD (C) | 16 | |||||
| 71 | Andrew McCutchen | PIT (OF) | 15 | |||||
| 72 | J.D. Martinez | DET (OF) | 15 | |||||
| 73 | Jose Quintana | CHW (SP) | 15 | |||||
| 74 | Rick Porcello | BOS (SP) | 15 | |||||
| 75 | Justin Upton | DET (OF) | 15 | |||||
| 76 | James Paxton | SEA (SP) | 15 | |||||
| 77 | Roberto Osuna | TOR (RP) | 15 | |||||
| 78 | Brian McCann | HOU (C) | 15 | |||||
| 79 | Khris Davis | OAK (OF) | 15 | |||||
| 80 | Lance McCullers | HOU (SP) | 15 | |||||
| 81 | Carlos Martinez | STL (SP) | 15 | |||||
| 82 | Jose Bautista | TOR (OF) | 15 | |||||
| 83 | Dylan Bundy | BAL (RP) | 14 | |||||
| 84 | Adam Jones | BAL (OF) | 14 | |||||
| 85 | Jose Ramirez | CLE (3B) | 14 | |||||
| 86 | Trevor Story | COL (SS) | 14 | |||||
| 87 | Hanley Ramirez | BOS (1B) | 14 | |||||
| 88 | Ryan Zimmerman | WAS (1B) | 14 | |||||
| 89 | Danny Duffy | KC (SP) | 14 | |||||
| 90 | David Price | BOS (SP) | 14 | |||||
| 91 | Dee Gordon | MIA (2B) | 13 | |||||
| 92 | Ian Kinsler | DET (2B) | 13 | |||||
| 93 | Danny Salazar | CLE (SP) | 13 | |||||
| 94 | Michael Brantley | CLE (OF) | 13 | |||||
| 95 | Marcell Ozuna | MIA (OF) | 13 | |||||
| 96 | Matt Kemp | ATL (OF) | 13 | |||||
| 97 | Kyle Schwarber | CHC (OF) | 13 | |||||
| 98 | Ken Giles | HOU (RP) | 12 | |||||
| 99 | Cody Allen | CLE (RP) | 12 | |||||
| 100 | John Lackey | CHC (SP) | 12 | |||||
| 101 | Kenta Maeda | LAD (SP) | 12 | |||||
| 102 | Julio Teheran | ATL (SP) | 12 | |||||
| 103 | Jeff Samardzija | SF (SP) | 12 | |||||
| 104 | Adrian Beltre | TEX (3B) | 12 | |||||
| 105 | Mark Trumbo | BAL (OF) | 12 | |||||
| 106 | Aledmys Diaz | STL (SS) | 12 | |||||
| 107 | Jake Lamb | ARI (3B) | 12 | |||||
| 108 | Yoenis Cespedes | NYM (OF) | 12 | |||||
| 109 | Greg Holland | COL (RP) | 11 | |||||
| 110 | Michael Pineda | NYY (SP) | 11 | |||||
| 111 | J.T. Realmuto | MIA (C) | 11 | |||||
| 112 | Anthony Rendon | WAS (3B) | 11 | |||||
| 113 | Ian Desmond | COL (OF) | 11 | |||||
| 114 | David Robertson | CHW (RP) | 10 | |||||
| 115 | Aroldis Chapman | NYY (RP) | 10 | |||||
| 116 | Billy Hamilton | CIN (OF) | 10 | |||||
| 117 | Marcus Stroman | TOR (SP) | 10 | |||||
| 118 | Adam Duvall | CIN (OF) | 10 | |||||
| 119 | Neftali Feliz | MIL (RP) | 10 | |||||
| 120 | Noah Syndergaard | NYM (SP) | 10 | |||||
| 121 | Jose Peraza | CIN (SS) | 10 | |||||
| 122 | Luis Severino | NYY (SP) | 10 | |||||
| 123 | Raisel Iglesias | CIN (RP) | 9 | |||||
| 124 | Matt Shoemaker | LAA (SP) | 9 | |||||
| 125 | Jason Kipnis | CLE (2B) | 9 | |||||
| 126 | Dellin Betances | NYY (RP) | 9 | |||||
| 127 | Kelvin Herrera | KC (RP) | 8 | |||||
| 128 | Gregory Polanco | PIT (OF) | 8 | |||||
| 129 | Ben Zobrist | CHC (2B) | 8 | |||||
| 130 | Aaron Sanchez | TOR (SP) | 8 | |||||
| 131 | Ervin Santana | MIN (SP) | 8 | |||||
| 132 | Tanner Roark | WAS (SP) | 8 | |||||
| 133 | DJ LeMahieu | COL (2B) | 8 | |||||
| 134 | Jay Bruce | NYM (OF) | 8 | |||||
| 135 | Travis Shaw | MIL (3B) | 8 | |||||
| 136 | Mark Melancon | SF (RP) | 8 | |||||
| 137 | Addison Reed | NYM (RP) | 8 | |||||
| 138 | Justin Turner | LAD (3B) | 7 | |||||
| 139 | Cody Bellinger | LAD (1B) | 7 | |||||
| 140 | Matt Harvey | NYM (SP) | 7 | |||||
| 141 | Russell Martin | TOR (C) | 7 | |||||
| 142 | Addison Russell | CHC (SS) | 7 | |||||
| 143 | Lorenzo Cain | KC (OF) | 7 | |||||
| 144 | Robbie Ray | ARI (SP) | 7 | |||||
| 145 | Joey Gallo | TEX (3B) | 7 | |||||
| 146 | Seung Hwan Oh | STL (RP) | 7 | |||||
| 147 | Dexter Fowler | STL (OF) | 6 | |||||
| 148 | Todd Frazier | CHW (3B) | 6 | |||||
| 149 | Kendrys Morales | TOR (DH) | 6 | |||||
| 150 | Stephen Piscotty | STL (OF) | 6 | |||||
| 151 | Maikel Franco | PHI (3B) | 6 | |||||
| 152 | Brett Gardner | NYY (OF) | 6 | |||||
| 153 | Gio Gonzalez | WAS (SP) | 6 | |||||
| 154 | Madison Bumgarner | SF (SP) | 6 | |||||
| 155 | Aaron Nola | PHI (SP) | 6 | |||||
| 156 | Eduardo Nunez | SF (3B) | 6 | |||||
| 157 | Sonny Gray | OAK (SP) | 6 | |||||
| 158 | Yasiel Puig | LAD (OF) | 6 | |||||
| 159 | Alex Colome | TB (RP) | 6 | |||||
| 160 | Rich Hill | LAD (SP) | 6 | |||||
| 161 | Nicholas Castellanos | DET (3B) | 6 | |||||
| 162 | Jackie Bradley | BOS (OF) | 6 | |||||
| 163 | Ivan Nova | PIT (SP) | 6 | |||||
| 164 | Evan Longoria | TB (3B) | 5 | |||||
| 165 | Brandon Belt | SF (1B) | 5 | |||||
| 166 | Albert Pujols | LAA (DH) | 5 | |||||
| 167 | Felix Hernandez | SEA (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 168 | Victor Martinez | DET (DH) | 5 | |||||
| 169 | Drew Pomeranz | BOS (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 170 | Kole Calhoun | LAA (OF) | 5 | |||||
| 171 | Vincent Velasquez | PHI (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 172 | Josh Reddick | HOU (OF) | 5 | |||||
| 173 | Odubel Herrera | PHI (OF) | 5 | |||||
| 174 | Jon Gray | COL (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 175 | Ian Kennedy | KC (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 176 | Carlos Rodon | CHW (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 177 | Shin-Soo Choo | TEX (OF) | 5 | |||||
| 178 | Sean Manaea | OAK (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 179 | Zack Cozart | CIN (SS) | 5 | |||||
| 180 | Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 181 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY (SP) | 5 | |||||
| 182 | Edwin Diaz | SEA (RP) | 5 | |||||
| 183 | Brad Brach | BAL (RP) | 5 | |||||
| 184 | AJ Ramos | MIA (RP) | 5 | |||||
| 185 | Adrian Gonzalez | LAD (1B) | 4 | |||||
| 186 | Kevin Gausman | BAL (SP) | 4 | |||||
| 187 | Alex Bregman | HOU (3B) | 4 | |||||
| 188 | Francisco Liriano | TOR (SP) | 4 | |||||
| 189 | Michael Fulmer | DET (SP) | 4 | |||||
| 190 | Yasmany Tomas | ARI (OF) | 4 | |||||
| 191 | Michael Wacha | STL (SP) | 4 | |||||
| 192 | Zack Wheeler | NYM (SP) | 4 | |||||
| 193 | Cole Hamels | TEX (SP) | 4 | |||||
| 194 | Scott Schebler | CIN (OF) | 4 | |||||
| 195 | Devon Travis | TOR (2B) | 4 | |||||
| 196 | Jedd Gyorko | STL (2B) | 4 | |||||
| 197 | Chris Owings | ARI (SS) | 4 | |||||
| 198 | Byron Buxton | MIN (OF) | 4 | |||||
| 199 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN (3B) | 4 | |||||
| 200 | Eric Hosmer | KC (1B) | 3 | |||||
