The knock on Lamar Miller has always been that he was underutilized with the Dolphins during the first four years of his career. Well, that's about to change with the Texans.
Houston coach Bill O'Brien saw firsthand in 2015 what Miller is capable of when he had 14 carries for 175 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 61 yards and a touchdown against the Texans in Week 7. That helped Miller earn a four-year, $26 million contract, and he might be overused for the first time ever.
Miller could end up as the best Fantasy running back this season.
"From a skill-set standpoint, all you have to do is turn on the tape from our game against them," O'Brien told me this offseason. "Speed. Quickness. I think he's decent in the passing game, so we're going to be able to use him there. I think we've got a good player there."
Now, I don't have Miller ranked No. 1. He's actually No. 4 behind Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. But it wouldn't surprise me if Miller finished first based on O'Brien's offense.
O'Brien has coached the Texans the past two seasons, and Houston was No. 1 in rush attempts in 2014 and No. 5 last year. By comparison, Miami was No. 22 in 2014 and last in rush attempts last season.
Thankfully, the lack of rushing didn't crush Miller as a Fantasy option with the Dolphins. He finished as the No. 9 running back in standard leagues in 2014 with 216 carries for 1,099 yards and eight touchdowns and 38 catches for 275 yards and a touchdown, and he was No. 6 last year with 194 carries for 872 yards and eight touchdowns and 47 catches for 397 yards and two touchdowns.
But if you play the fun with numbers game, you could see the potential Miller has in Houston based on the past two seasons. For example, Miller had 54 percent of Miami's 399 rush attempts in 2014, and he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored a touchdown once every 27 rushes.
If he did that in Houston in 2014 based on 551 rush attempts, Miller would have had 1,520 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Only DeMarco Murray in Dallas had more rushing yards that season, and only Murray and Marshawn Lynch in Seattle scored more touchdowns.
In 2015, Miller had 63 percent of Miami's 310 carries, and he averaged 4.5 yards per carry and scored a touchdown once every 24 attempts. Again, if he did that with the Texans last year based on their 472 rush attempts he would have rushed for 1,337 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Only Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin had more rushing yards, and Miller would have led all running backs in rushing touchdowns.
It's obviously unfair to say Miller will perform at that level with the Texans, but you have to love the marriage of a talented running back, who just turned 25, going to a team that likes to run the ball. And Miller has improved as a receiver each year, which included finishing No. 10 in catches among running backs in 2015.
Miller's Average Draft Position on CBS Sports is No. 17 overall, but I expect him to be drafted closer to Round 1 -- if not in the first round. He's currently being drafted behind Devonta Freeman and Jamaal Charles, but I like the outlook for Miller better this year.
We'll see where he finishes by the end of the season, but it would be a huge disappointment if he went from No. 6 in 2015 with the Dolphins to a lower ranking with the Texans. His opportunity is better in Houston, and he should have the chance for the best year of his career.
It could even result in Miller being the No. 1 Fantasy running back in 2016.
