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USATSI

In 1983, six quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Three of them are Hall of Famers in Dan Marino, John Elway and Jim Kelly, while the other three were less productive in Ken O'Brien, Tony Eason and Todd Blackledge. 

Fast forward 41 years later, and six quarterbacks were once again selected in the first round of the NFL Draft in 2024 with Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta), J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota) and Bo Nix (Denver). Will any of them be Hall of Famers? We'll find out down the road.

For now, we're more concerned about their Fantasy value -- in 2024 and for dynasty leagues -- and I love the first two picks in Williams and Daniels. Williams has an amazing receiving corps (D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet), and Daniels could be one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL.

I plan to draft both quarterbacks as No. 1 Fantasy options this year, with Williams (for now) slightly ahead of Daniels. And in rookie-only drafts for dynasty leagues, Williams and Daniels are first-round picks, with both potentially going first and second overall in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. 

My No. 3 quarterback is McCarthy, and he ended up in the best landing spot with the Vikings, who traded up to draft him at No. 10 overall. Playing for Kevin O'Connell and throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson is fantastic, and McCarthy could eventually become a Fantasy starter as the season goes on.

In redraft leagues, McCarthy is only worth a late-round pick, but he should be a starter in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. He's a borderline first-round pick in rookie-only drafts for one-quarterback leagues, but he could be a top-five overall selection in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.

Maye is my No. 4 rookie quarterback, but there's a drop-off after McCarthy. Even though Maye was the third quarterback selected in the NFL Draft, the weapons in New England are limited (Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hunter Henry), and Maye is not worth drafting in most redraft leagues this year.

In rookie-only drafts, Maye is a second-round pick at best in one-quarterback leagues. He's a first-round selection in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, and hopefully, he'll get better weapons by 2025.

I'll take Nix as the No. 5 rookie quarterback this season, but I'm not overly optimistic about his Fantasy value. The Broncos have limited weapons in the passing game (Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims and Josh Reynolds), and it felt like a stretch for Denver to draft Nix at No. 12 overall.

I doubt we'll see Nix selected in one-quarterback redraft leagues, and he's a late-round pick in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. In rookie-only, one-quarterback leagues, Nix is a second-round pick at best. In Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, Nix is a late first-round selection, but I'd prefer to draft him in Round 2.

And then there's Penix. The Falcons surprised everyone by selecting Penix at No. 8 overall since they just signed Kirk Cousins to a huge deal this offseason.

No one will draft Penix in one-quarterback redraft leagues, and he's just a late-round flier in Superflex and two-quarterback formats in case you want to handcuff Cousins, who is coming off a torn Achilles. And Penix's dynasty value is also limited.

Unless Atlanta plans to move on from Cousins before his four-year contract expiring, Penix will be buried on the depth chart, barring an injury. Penix will also be 28 when Cousins' deal is done in 2027.

Now, let's dive in-depth on the rookie quarterbacks from Chicago, Washington, New England, Atlanta, Minnesota and Denver.

Chicago Bears

  • New QB: Caleb Williams, USC, selected No. 1 overall
  • Running backs: D'Andre Swift, Rocshon Johnson and Khalil Herbert
  • Wide receivers: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze
  • Tight end: Cole Kmet

Outlook: Williams steps into a great situation with the receiving corps in Chicago, especially after the Bears added Odunze with the No. 9 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Moore, Allen, Odunze and Kmet should make plenty of plays for Williams, who should be drafted as a borderline No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues. He established himself as a star in college with more than 10,000 passing yards in three seasons, including 93 touchdowns and just 14 interceptions. And he could surprise us as a rusher with two seasons of at least 382 yards, along with 27 rushing touchdowns in his collegiate career. Now, while Williams benefits from Odunze also joining the Bears, his addition is a downgrade for Moore and Allen. I'm now viewing Moore as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver who should not be drafted until the end of Round 3 or early Round 4, and Allen is just a No. 3 receiver in all leagues, who should not be drafted until Round 6 at the earliest, even in PPR. The earliest you should draft Odunze is Round 8. Kmet is a No. 2 Fantasy tight end worth drafting with a late-round pick, but you shouldn't count on him as a starter prior to the season. As for the running backs, Swift is a low-end No. 2 Fantasy option in his first season in Chicago, and the earliest you should draft him is in Round 5. We'll see how Johnson and Herbert are used behind Swift, but this is a crowded backfield if all three remain on the roster in September.

Washington Commanders

Outlook: I'm torn on Daniels vs. Williams as the No. 1 rookie quarterback this season, and I'm giving a slight nod to Williams after Round 1 of the NFL Draft because of his weapons. But Daniels could easily be the better Fantasy quarterback because of his rushing ability, and he just ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns at LSU in 2023. He has three seasons in a row of at least 710 rushing yards, with 27 rushing touchdowns over that span. And he's a good passer also with 3,812 yards last season on 72.2 percent completions with 40 touchdowns and four interceptions. I'm going to draft Daniels as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues. McLaurin should be considered a borderline No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues as well, and hopefully Daniels leans on McLaurin as his go-to guy. This should be the best quarterback McLaurin has played with in his career, and I'll be drafting McLaurin in Round 5. Dotson struggled in 2023, but he has plenty of upside to rebound in 2024, which is his third season in the NFL. I love the setup for Dotson to be a post-hype sleeper, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 9 in all leagues. We'll see how Ekeler does sharing touches with Robinson, but Ekeler is worth drafting as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy running back. He should be a valuable weapon in the passing game, and I'll be looking for Ekeler in the Round 6 range. Robinson won't be far behind him, and I could see Robinson getting more carries and red-zone work. He's worth drafting as early as Round 7 in all formats. As for Ertz, I'm not planning to draft him in any leagues, but he could emerge as a bye-week replacement as the season goes on.

New England Patriots

  • New QB: Drake Maye, North Carolina, selected No. 3 overall
  • Running backs: Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson
  • Wide receivers: Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne and JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • Tight end: Hunter Henry

Outlook: There's a chance the Patriots start Jacoby Brissett and give Maye time to develop, and that might not be a bad thing. This New England offense, at least following the first day of the NFL Draft, doesn't appear to have much upside, especially in the receiving corps. Maye isn't going to be someone Fantasy managers covet in redraft leagues, and he's only worth drafting in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. Long-term, he will hopefully develop into a quality Fantasy option, but the Patriots will likely need to surround him with more talent. That said, I don't mind Douglas as a late-round pick, and hopefully he can emerge as a reliable target. Bourne is also worth a late-round pick, and hopefully he's healthy following last year's ACL tear. Smith-Schuster, at best, is a waiver-wire option, as is Henry at tight end. The best Fantasy asset in New England will be Stevenson, and he should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 running back in all leagues in the Round 5 range. Gibson is a late-round pick as a bench option, and we'll see what role he has in the passing game. New England hopefully found its quarterback of the future in Maye, but it might take some time to see just how good he is with the lack of premier playmakers on the Patriots in 2024.

Atlanta Falcons

Outlook: The strangest pick of the first round was Penix to the Falcons since they just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. His agent was surprised by the Penix pick, and Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot had a puzzling quote about the selection as well. "If you believe in a quarterback, you have to take him," Fontenot said. "And if he sits for four or five years, that's a great problem to have because we're doing so well at that position. So, it's as simple as, if you see a guy you believe in at that position, you have to take him." In four years, Penix will be 28 when the season starts, so this feels like a wasted pick if Cousins is healthy and the starter in Atlanta for the entirety of his contract. This draft pick did nothing to alter the Fantasy outlook for the Falcons since Cousins will start, and he's a borderline No. 1 quarterback in all leagues. Robinson is a No. 1 running back worth drafting in Round 1, and London is a borderline No. 1 receiver worth selecting in Round 3 in all leagues (I would draft him in Round 2). I also expect Pitts to re-emerge as a No. 1 tight end, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 6. As for Penix, he should only be selected in rookie-only drafts for dynasty leagues with one of your last picks because we might not see him on the field for several years.

Minnesota Vikings

  • New QB: J.J. McCarthy, Michigan, selected No. 10 overall
  • Running backs: Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler
  • Wide receivers: Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison
  • Tight end: T.J. Hockenson

Outlook: I'm not sure if McCarthy will become an elite talent, but I love this landing spot with the Vikings. With Kevin O'Connell calling plays, and the talent around McCarthy in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, the path to success is there. He just has to take advantage of it. In redraft leagues, McCarthy is worth drafting with a late-round pick in one-quarterback formats, and he should be a starter in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues. The Vikings aren't expected to shy away from throwing the ball -- Minnesota was No. 4 in pass attempts in 2023 -- and McCarthy has plenty of help to make plays. Jefferson loses some value going from Kirk Cousins to McCarthy, but he's still a top three Fantasy receiver in all leagues. I currently have Jefferson behind CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill, but I wouldn't argue with anyone drafting Jefferson first. Addison is a No. 3 Fantasy receiver coming into the season, but his value could increase if Hockenson (ACL) isn't ready for Week 1. I would draft Addison with a mid-round pick in all leagues. I'm probably out on Hockenson if he's being drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, but I'll draft him with a late-round pick if he falls. I'm not expecting a big season from him coming back from the knee injury he suffered in late December, and he didn't have surgery on his ACL until the end of January. As for the running backs, Jones should be considered a high-end flex. He can still be a starter in all leagues, but temper your expectations for Jones since he's 29 and could share work with Chandler throughout the year. And Chandler is only a late-round flier.

Denver Broncos

Outlook: Sean Payton wanted Nix, and he got him, even if it was surprising that the Broncos selected him at No. 12 overall. He should start ahead of Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham, but this isn't an ideal Fantasy situation for Nix. He's not worth drafting in one-quarterback redraft leagues, and he should be a reserve in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. Denver's receiving corps doesn't have the best playmakers with Sutton at the top of the depth chart. While he scored 10 touchdowns last season with Russell Wilson, it's hard to expect him to have that level of success with a rookie quarterback. I would only consider Sutton as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick in all leagues. I'm hopeful that Mims can emerge as a reliable target in his sophomore campaign, but he was limited as a rookie behind Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who is now in Cleveland. I'll take a late-round flier on Mims with the hope that he develops a rapport with Nix early in the year. Reynolds isn't someone Fantasy managers should covet, but he could become a waiver-wire option during the season. And the same goes for Dulcich, who has to prove he can stay healthy after playing in just 12 games in the first two seasons of his career. I am encouraged about Williams this season, and he could be a borderline starter in all leagues. He'll be two years removed from his ACL tear, and he should continue to be a factor in the passing game, even with McLaughlin and Perine still on the roster. Williams is worth drafting as early as Round 6, and I would take a flier on McLaughlin with a late-round pick.