The 2014 regular season just ended, but it's already time to look ahead to 2015. Hey, the NFL season never stops, so why should we? With that in mind, here's your first look at the first round for next season in standard leagues.
A lot will change between now and August. Free agency, the draft and a general change of opinion will alter this list at least a dozen times.
But based on what we just saw for 16 games over a four-month period, along with what could occur in the offseason, here are your top 12 picks for 2015.
1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers
As long as Bell doesn't have a serious knee injury -- he missed the Wild Card round of the playoffs against Baltimore -- then he should be a lock for a top three overall pick. Keep an eye on his health and you'll also have to monitor a potential suspension stemming from his August arrest for possession and driving under the influence of marijuana, which could drop him a spot or two on this list, depending on the outcome. The Steelers will likely add a running back to lighten the load for Bell, but he should once again be a workhorse for this offense. He has everything you look for in rushing prowess, the ability to catch the ball and plenty of touchdown potential. He was awesome in 2014 with double digits in Fantasy points in 14 games and at least nine points in 15. He scored 20 or more points five times and should continue to thrive entering his third year in 2015. One downside for Bell could be facing the NFC West next year, but we expect him to overcome that hurdle based on his ability.2014 stats: 290 carries, 1,361 yards, eight touchdowns; 83 catches, 854 yards, three touchdowns
2014 Fantasy points: 287
2. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
Lacy got off to a slow start in 2014, which was partially due to a concussion in Week 1, with 10 combined Fantasy points in his first three games, but he was amazing from that point forward. In his final 13 games he had just one outing with single digits in Fantasy points and scored all 13 of his touchdowns. He finished as the No. 6 running back in standard leagues, but if you give him the average of his final 13 games (15.8 Fantasy points) over the course of the season he would have finished two spots higher. Barring an injury in the playoffs, we hope Lacy won't have to deal with any slow starts and take off right away like we saw in Week 4 on. He doesn't have much competition for carries, and even with Aaron Rodgers the Packers still rely on him as a focal point of the offense. Like Bell, he also has to deal with facing the NFC West, but he should still do well in those matchups. I would also have no problem with Lacy at No. 1 overall if Bell is suspended.2014 stats: 246 carries, 1,139 yards, nine touchdowns; 42 catches, 427 yards, four touchdowns; two fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 229
3. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
Murray might drop from this spot for a couple of reasons. The biggest would be he's a free agent, and if he leaves the Cowboys and that stellar offensive line then I want no part of him in 2015. But I also might stay away from Murray based on his workload from 2014. Running backs with at least 370 carries have a horrible history of breaking down, which we'll get into more this offseason, and Murray is at 393 and counting heading into the playoffs. He also has a history of injuries, which makes him even more of a risk. But that offensive line is amazing, and it's a big part of Murray being the No. 1 running back in 2014. We'll dig deeper into Murray's outlook for 2015 as the offseason goes on, but it's hard to overlook his performance from this past year. He had one game this season with single digits in Fantasy points, which was eight in Week 9 against Arizona, including playing the final two games of the season following hand surgery. And a big positive for his outlook next year is facing the NFC South, which makes his schedule that much more favorable.2014 stats: 393 carries, 1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns; 57 catches, 416 yards; five fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 293
4. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
I toyed with the idea of putting Gronkowski at No. 1 overall, and I would have no problem with anyone taking him in the top three spots. He's that good and that much of a difference maker at his position when healthy. And he proved his health in 2014 by playing in 15 games (he was a healthy scratch in Week 17), and it appears like he's over the back, elbow and knee problems that plagued him the past two years. Gronkowski had double digits in Fantasy points in eight games and at least nine points in four others. He was 30 Fantasy points better than Antonio Gates and 40 points better than Jimmy Graham for the season. The last time he was fully healthy, which was 2011, he was 45 Fantasy points better than Graham as well. While Graham is awesome, he's the No. 2 tight end behind Gronkowski, and I like Gronkowski as a Top 5 overall pick.2014 stats: 82 catches, 1,124 yards, 12 touchdowns
2014 Fantasy points: 184
5. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
Charles wasn't the same running back in 2014 as he was in 2013 when he was the No. 1 player at his position, and he dropped off by 83 Fantasy points. He struggled in the beginning of 2014 and the end with 16 Fantasy points combined in the first three games of the season and the final three. But in the 10 games in the middle of the year he was amazing with at least 11 Fantasy points in nine outings, and he averaged 18.1 Fantasy points over that span. If you project that over 16 games he would have scored 289 Fantasy points and been second behind Murray. There's a good chance you'll see more of Knile Davis in 2015, but the Chiefs offensive line, which was revamped this past year, should be better. Charles is a do-it-all running back and easily the best offensive player on his roster. He could return to the No. 1 spot, and I have no reservations about drafting him in the Top 5.2014 stats: 206 carries, 1,033 yards, nine touchdowns; 40 catches, 291 yards, five touchdowns; three fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 210
6. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
McCoy was awful in 2014 compared to his standout season in 2013 when he scored 263 Fantasy points and finished second behind Charles. He had the exact same amount of carries in 2013 as 2014, but he managed 1,607 yards and nine touchdowns. He also had 52 catches for 539 yards and two touchdowns, so the addition of Darren Sproles clearly was problematic. We're expecting a rebound season in 2015 as the Eagles should improve on the offensive line and also address their quarterback situation after Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez struggled. McCoy, with four more touchdowns to match his 2013 total, would have gone from the No. 12 running back in 2014 to No. 9, so he's not far off from where he should be. He's only 26 years old and just entering his prime, so McCoy could end up being a steal at No. 6 overall if he plays as expected next season.2014 stats: 314 carries, 1,319 yards, five touchdowns; 28 catches, 155 yards; three fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 170
7. Matt Forte, RB, Bears
Forte is clearly better in PPR leagues than standard formats since his reception total was No. 1 among running backs by 19 over Bell and 45 over Murray. But in any format, 1,800 total yards and 10 touchdowns is impressive, and Forte had 10 games with at least 15 Fantasy points in standard leagues. We think Forte, 29, has one more good season left, but the Bears are looking for a new head coach, which could impact his outlook in a number of ways. Jay Cutler also might not return, and we don't love the idea of Forte with a rookie quarterback if that's the route Chicago goes. But his overall ability, as long as another running back isn't brought in for competition, should allow Forte to excel in any system with any quarterback. He's still a Top 10 overall pick next season with Top 5 upside.2014 stats: 266 carries, 1,038 yards, six touchdowns; 102 catches, 808 yards, four touchdowns; two fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 243
8. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
Coming off his back injury in 2013, I was surprised by Foster's success in 2014. He was able to fight through hamstring and groin problems, which cost him three games, and finish No. 5 in Fantasy points at running back behind Murray, Bell, Marshawn Lynch and Forte. He had 10 games with double digits in Fantasy points and two others with nine, which was impressive since he played 13 games. Like Forte, we think Foster, 28, is near the end of his run as an elite Fantasy option, but this offense is designed for him to dominate when healthy. You'll just have to realize he struggles with soft tissue injuries and could miss a game or two during the season, but in 13 games he's clearly a special talent. I was hesitant to draft him in 2014, but I'll have no hesitation to draft him toward the back end of Round 1 in most leagues in 2015.2014 stats: 260 carries, 1,246 yards, eight touchdowns; 38 catches, 327 yards, five touchdowns; two fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 236
9. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
Brown was the No. 1 receiver in standard leagues by 23 Fantasy points over Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson, and he led the NFL in receptions by 18 over Thomas. He had 182 targets, which was second behind Thomas, and he also was 2-of-2 passing for 20 yards and a touchdown with four carries for 13 yards. This is now two years in a row with at least 110 catches and 1,500 total yards, so his production isn't a fluke. And the Steelers will continue to lean on him in the passing game. There are a lot of great receivers to chose from, and Brown might not be the first name you settle on, but he should be considered the best based on his past success and future possibility.2014 stats: 129 catches, 1,698 yards, 13 touchdowns; two fumbles
2014 Fantasy points: 252
10. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
Thomas was the No. 1 receiver in 2013 and No. 2 in 2014. He had 219 Fantasy points in 2013, so his production is consistent year over year. He's a free agent this offseason, but it's unlikely the Broncos let him leave. You'll also have to monitor what happens with Peyton Manning, especially if Denver wins the Super Bowl, but Manning has said he will return. Thomas had 13 games with double digits in Fantasy points, and even though Manning struggled to close the season, Thomas was still solid with at least 11 Fantasy points in the final three games of the year. Keep an eye on what happens to Thomas and Denver in the playoffs and the offseason, but if he's back with the Broncos and has Manning throwing him passes, draft him as a Top 10 overall pick in all formats.2014 stats: 111 catches, 1,619 yards, 11 touchdowns
2014 Fantasy points: 229
11. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
Johnson was the No. 1 receiver in 2012, the No. 3 receiver in 2013 and No. 14 this past year. He struggled with an ankle injury and was limited to start the year. But once he got healthy, he looked like the same dominant receiver we've come to expect for most of his career. After sitting out three games prior to Detroit's bye in Week 9, he had double digits in Fantasy points in five of his final eight outings and averaged 13 Fantasy points over that span. If you project that over 16 games, Johnson would have been the No. 5 receiver behind Brown, Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant. This is likely the spot where other receivers will come into the conversation like Nelson, Bryant and Odell Beckham, but I'll still take Johnson with the chance he'll rebound as the potential No. 1 receiver once again.2014 stats: 71 catches, 1,077 yards, eight touchdowns
2014 Fantasy points: 155
12. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
Bryant has been a stud for the past three seasons with at least 192 Fantasy points in each year. This was his best season, and it came at the right time since he's a free agent this offseason. There's no way Dallas lets Bryant leave, and he should have another big season with Tony Romo depending on what happens during the playoffs. Bryant is a touchdown machine with 41 over the past three years, and he had double digits in Fantasy points in 10 games in 2014. You can make an easy argument for him as the No. 1 receiver, and he's a slam dunk as a first-round pick in all formats next season.2014 stats: 88 catches, 1,320 yards, 16 touchdowns
2014 Fantasy points: 228
Other candidates to consider ...
Here are five players who could also be considered as Top 12 selections in 2015.
Odell Beckham, WR, Giants Victor Cruz's return could hold
him back.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
He could easily be a Top 10 overall pick.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints He's still a stud at a thin position.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks A return to Seattle keeps him at the
top.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
If you want a quarterback, he's the one to get.
