After a bit of a downturn in the PGA Tour schedule last week at the Honda Classic, this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill represents an intense two-week stretch tantamount to what just played out at the Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational to close out the West Coast swing. Bay Hill will be followed by the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, and those two events were an unforgettable fortnite a year ago.
Let's take a closer look at this week's contest with odds provided via Caesars Sportsbook.
Event information
Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational | Dates: March 3-6
Location: Bay Hill Club and Lodge – Orlando, Florida
Par: 72 | Purse: $12 million
Three things to know
1. Rahm breakthrough: We talk about it all the time, but I'm not sure we can overstate just how good Jon Rahm has been both in 2022 and over the last few years. An example of this emerged as I studied some of the numbers going into this week's event, which Rahm has never played. If you look at the last 20 rounds of ball-striking among players who are in this field, Rahm is peerless.
- Rahm: 2.7 SG
- Zalatoris: 2.0 SG
- Hovland: 1.7 SG
- Munoz: 1.7 SG
- List: 1.6 SG
Rahm is gaining four strokes on the third-best ball-striker in this field over his last five tournaments. What chance does a below-average player have to compete with this?! The flip side of this statistic is that, you know, Rahm hasn't actually won an event since the U.S. Open last year, which discloses how difficult it is to win and how seemingly due he is to doing so. Bay Hill, if it plays fast and firm like it apparently will, is a prime spot to do so.
2. Long iron play: In addition to the potential wind and firm conditions we've seen recently at this golf course, Bay Hill's other defense is the demand it places on long iron play. Because all four of its par 3s are 200 or more yards, it's the rare PGA Tour course that forces you to hit 4- or 5-iron in some uncomfortable situations. According to my colleague, Rick Gehman, 35% of shots at Bay Hill come from 200 or more yards (average is about 27%) and 19% come from 200-225 (average is 11%). This is certainly something to keep in mind when trying to determine a champion and in fact has greatly influenced my picks this week (more on that below).
3. Rory cruising: We haven't seen much of Rory McIlroy in the United States so far in 2022. It's already March, and he's played just four rounds on the PGA Tour (T10 at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago). Obviously, there are always questions about McIlroy during the lead in to the Masters, and while he hasn't been featured much, what he's done has been significant thus far. Three straight top 15s to open up 2022 (two in Europe), and his statistics are off the charts (1.3, 3.0, 2.4 SG respectively). Additionally, he absolutely destroys at Bay Hill. Of players in the field with at least 10 rounds played at this course, only two are above 2.0 strokes gained per round, and McIlroy is inching toward 3.0. His last five starts here have all been top 10s, but despite all of this, it feels a bit like he's coming in under the radar in a big moment where he's unquestionably thrived. Interesting week on deck for him.
Rick Gehman is joined by Kyle Porter and Jonathan Coachman to preview the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Grading the field
This is a terrific field with great international representation. In addition to top 15 players in the world Rahm, Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama, those outside the top 15 who have been playing more on the DP World Tour – like Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Pieters -- will tee it up this week. Throw in Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Adam Scott and Max Homa, and we have ourselves a big-time event that has a slightly better strength of field than even the Waste Management Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. Its strength of field of 534 is the second-best of the year thus far behind only the Genesis Invitational. Grade: A
2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks
| Winner (28-1): Zalatoris has played very little this year, especially for somebody who has never won a PGA Tour event. Normally, we see more established players play minimal schedules, but Zalatoris has just 12 PGA Tour rounds under his (very small) belt so far in 2022. He finished top 10 in two of those three events, but because he hasn't been at the forefront for over a month now, he's coming in on a pretty great number. Only Rahm has been a better ball-striker over his last 20 rounds of all the players in this field, and while I worry about the putter (because you've seen the clips), it's not as big of a liability as everyone thinks (slightly below average among players in the field this week). |
| Top 10 (+150): The numbers are just overwhelming for McIlroy at this golf course (I sketched most of them out above). My one concern here that McIlroy's iron play has been fine but not elite of late gets a little mitigated at a place like Bay Hill because it requires so many of those long irons, where he's still among the best (he was sixth in the field at Riviera in proximity from 200 or more yards). McIlroy will also be my one-and-done pick this week at an event with a major-like purse, partly because I'm desperate (last in our First Cut Podcast league currently) and partly because I trust him immensely on this golf course. |
| Sleeper (66-1): Not only was Kirk good last week with a T7 at the Honda, he also finished T14 at the Phoenix Open and has three straight top-15 finishes at Bay Hill. Statistically, he's a lesser version of Xander Schauffele or Patrick Cantlay in that he's a plus in every category and doesn't have any glaring holes. Obviously, he's not as good as either of those golfers, but I love his history here, his recent trajectory and a number that seems a bit too high. |
Who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up over $9,000 since the restart.
