The PGA Tour season kicks off in myriad ways, but perhaps the most low-key opening day is headlined by the Farmers Insurance Open -- the first tournament to be broadcast on network television in 2022. It sports a loaded field at a golf course and area that feel like big-time tournament golf.
The list of winners is incredible, too. Tiger Woods (7x), Phil Mickelson (3x), Jason Day (2x), Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Davis Love III and Bubba Watson have all won titles here over the last 25 years, and there's a good chance that another star will add his name to the trophy this week at Torrey Pines.
Let's take a closer look at this week's contest with odds provided via Caesars Sportsbook.
Event information
Event: Farmers Insurance Open | Dates: Jan. 26-29
Location: Torrey Pines Golf Course – La Jolla, Calif.
Par: 72 | Purse: $8.4 million
Three things to know
1. Jon Rahm owns Torrey: The stories are true -- Rahm has been a menace on this golf course. There are a few dozen players in this field who have played at least 15 rounds on the South Course (which is used for three of the four rounds), and only four of them have a strokes gained number over 1.5 strokes per round (meaning they gain 1.5 strokes per round on the field on this course). Patrick Reed (1.55), Tony Finau (1.76) and Brandt Snedeker (2.11) are the first three, and Rahm (2.43!) is the other. In four tournaments -- 2017 Farmers, 2019 Farmers, 2020 Farmers, 2021 Farmers and 2021 U.S. Open -- he's lost to a total of 11 golfers and has two titles in that span as well. We're not at "Tiger at Torrey" threat levels quite yet, but we're also not that far off.
2. DeChambeau's dance: Bryson DeChambeau has not played the Farmers Insurance Open since 2018 when he missed the cut. Seven months ago, however, he led the U.S. Open after 63 holes before Rahm went on to win and DeChambeau went on to finish T26 alongside Rikuya Hoshino and Chris Baker. I'm fascinated to see what we get from him. That's true in most weeks, but maybe especially in this one at a place that does reward distance but also where there has not been a strong correlation between strokes gained and strokes gained off the tee in any of the last seven Farmers Insurance Opens. That's a very deep, detailed dive that we don't need to linger on, and it may or may not say anything about DeChambeau or his chances, but it's worth considering and thinking about as this event plays out. Overall, DeChambeau has played very average golf in his limited experience here (and well below what we would normally expect from him at a Tour event). I'm intrigued to see what happens, mostly in light of those wild final nine holes in the fourth round at last year's U.S. Open when he shot 44 on the back to completely eject from contention.
3. The anniversary: This week will mark exactly 12 months since Reed created probably the most controversial moment in golf in 2021. A convoluted, multi-tentacled mess that included him picking up a ball he presumed was plugged -- although video evidence revealed that the ball hopped in the air -- and asking a rules official to stick his fingers into the depression the ball apparently left behind (even though Reed himself said it was impossible for a ball that bounces to plug). Reed went on to win by five over five other golfers, including Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele. The moment won't -- and shouldn't -- be the primary storyline this week, but it will be revisited and replayed throughout.
Rick Gehman is joined by Kyle Porter, Doug Bell and Mark Immelman to preview the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Grading the field
This year's field strength of 499 falls just short of the opening Tournament of Champions (field strength: 514) but is slightly stronger than last year's edition, and it still includes several major winners and six of the top 10 players in the world. Rahm is the No. 1 player in the world, and he'll be playing for the third time in four weeks to start the year. He won the U.S. Open on this golf course last year and took this event in 2017. He's joined by Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, DeChambeau and last year's winner, Reed. Grade: A
2022 Farmers Insurance Open picks
| Winner (20-1): I'm all in on Berger this year. He's played quite well at this golf course -- 11th in the field in strokes gained of everyone with at least 10 rounds played -- and nobody has been a better ball-striker over their last 20 rounds. His short game, which, again, has had a high correlation to success here over the past half decade, is underrated, and he'll be afraid of [pulls up YouTube highlights from Ryder Cup] absolutely nobody in the field that he's paired with on Sunday. He's also playing at a clip that implies wins -- perhaps multiple -- over a wider arc of time, and I think one of those comes this weekend. |
| Top 10 (66-1 to win): Molinari is coming off a great week at the American Express last week, and he plays terrific golf on this course (seventh in the field in career strokes gained). This is a deviation from what I like to do, which is take a star in good form (like Rahm) and slot them into the pick here, and it's more of a play on the odds on the former Open Championship winner. |
| Sleeper (80-1): Hoge is another guy who not only played well last week but has been flushing it in general. Over their last 20 rounds, only three golfers have been better than him from tee to green (and three of them are Ryder Cup participants). He finished second last week to Hudson Swafford in Palm Springs, and only six golfers in this field outperform their expected strokes gained numbers on this course more than Hoge does. Still flying under the radar, but perhaps not for long. |
Who will win the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.
