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The 2022 PGA Championship heads to Round 4 on Sunday with a clear leader and a new favorite. While many of the top contenders entering the weekend struggled on Saturday, Mito Pereira shot a steady third-round 69, and he heads into the final round at 9-under par, three strokes ahead of the field. Matthew Fitzpatrick shot a 67 on Saturday and he joins Will Zalatoris, who stumbled with a 73 on Saturday, at 6-under. Tiger Woods shot a 79 on Saturday, his worst round ever in the PGA Championship, and he has withdrawn from the tournament ahead of the fourth round as he clearly was dealing with some pain throughout the event.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Pereira as the 3-2 favorite in the latest 2022 PGA Championship odds for Sunday. Fitzpatrick is next on the PGA odds board at 7-2, while Zalatroris is 4-1. Other notable golfers in the top 20 entering Sunday include Justin Thomas (28-1), Bubba Watson (80-1) and Rory McIlroy (100-1). Before making any 2022 PGA Championship picks for Sunday, be sure to see the PGA Tour predictions from the proven golf projection model at SportsLine

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up almost $9,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend. In addition, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2022 PGA Championship heads for Sunday, SportsLine simulated the final round 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2022 PGA Championship predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2022: Cameron Young, who has shot back-to-back 67s and is four shots off the lead at 5-under, stumbles and barely finishes inside the top five. Young has pieced together an impressive tournament thus far, and he came into this week with a lot of momentum after finishing in the top three in his last two events.

But his overall major track record isn't impressive. He's failed to make the cut in his three previous attempts, including shooting a pair of 77s at the Masters earlier this year. He ranks 68th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting this season and he's 151st in greens-in-regulation percentage, so the model doesn't project that he'll be able to climb the leaderboard on Sunday.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 28-1 long shot, makes a surprising run into contention. He has a better chance to win than his odds imply, making him a great PGA Championship Sunday sleeper pick. After opening the tournament with a 67 on both Friday and Saturday, Thomas struggled his way to a 74 on Saturday. That dropped him to T7 and seven shots off the lead.

But things could change quickly if Pereira drops a few shots early. Thomas won the PGA Championship in 2017 and finished T6 in 2018, so he knows what it takes to contend. He also ranks second on the PGA Tour in birdie average (5.11), so he is one of the golfers who is best equipped to make a Sunday run. 

How to make 2022 PGA Championship picks

The model is targeting three golfers with triple-digit odds who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.

So who will win the PGA Championship 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2022 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including this year's Masters.

2022 PGA Championship Sunday odds, field

Mito Pereira 3-2
Matthew Fitzpatrick 7-2
Will Zalatoris 4-1
Cameron Young 9-1
Abraham Ancer 18-1
Justin Thomas 28-1
Seamus Power 40-1
Bubba Watson 80-1
Rory McIlroy 100-1
Sam Burns 125-1
Gary Woodland 150-1
Stewart Cink 150-1
Max Homa 150-1
Xander Schauffele 200-1
Davis Riley 200-1
Chris Kirk 250-1
Webb Simpson 250-1
Lucas Herbert 300-1
Cameron Smith 400-1
Tommy Fleetwood 400-1
Tom Hoge 500-1
Adri Arnaus 750-1
Ryan Fox 750-1
Joaquin Niemann 750-1
Patrick Reed 1000-1
Kevin Na 1000-1
Tyrrell Hatton 1000-1
Brendan Steele 1000-1
Matt Kuchar 1000-1