Golfers typically head out months in advance for scouting trips to prepare for majors like the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the United States, but most tend to have a general idea of what to expect once April rolls around and the azaleas are in full bloom. That's because Augusta National Golf Club is the only course in the world that hosts a major championship on an annual basis.
The 2023 Masters begins this week as it always does in early April, though there have been some course changes in recent years with the removal of some trees on the par-4 11th, lengthening of the par-5 15th in 2022, and most recently, lengthening of the par-5 13th ahead of the 2023 tournament. While most do take early looks at Augusta, the core concept of the golf course remains in tact.
You see it year over year with veterans seemingly finding form out of thin air. It's not that they are playing better than the stars of today; it's just that they have vast experience playing Augusta National, particularly more so than the younger generation. Freddie Couples and Tom Watson have made early week charges in their 50s. Bernhard Langer has beaten Bryson DeChambeau two of the last three years. Anywhere else on Earth, that probably doesn't happen. Once a player finds the key ingredient at Augusta -- it varies among them -- the recipe is as good as his.
Not only does one's course knowledge need to be expansive, so does their current skillset. While the ghosts of past Masters champions pop up on the leaderboard every now and then, only those truly comfortable with all facets of their game will have the staying power to see it through until Sunday evening. A player doesn't just fall into winning the green jacket (just ask Dustin Johnson), he often trends towards it and peaks at the precise right time. (You can also ask D.J. about this.)
With all this in mind, let's take a look back at the 10 most recent winners of the Masters and identify what trends exist between them as we attempt to whittle down the field of 88 players to pinpoint this year's champion.
Watch all four rounds of the 2023 Masters starting Thursday with Masters Live as we follow the best golfers in the world throughout Augusta National with Featured Groups, check in at the famed Amen Corner and see leaders round the turn on holes 15 & 16. Watch live on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+.
1. Official World Golf Rankings
It's a hot-button issue in 2023, and no matter what side of the aisle you stand, there is no denying OWGR matters at the Masters. Each of the last 10 Masters champions have resided inside the top 25 of the OWGR the week leading into the tournament. They've ranged from world Nos. 1 like Scottie Scheffler in 2022 and Johnson in 2020 to world No. 25 Hideki Matsuyama in 2021.
Eliminated -- Those outside the top 25 of the OWGR. Notables include: Joaquin Niemann, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer
2. Maybe don't remember your first time
Only three players have ever won the Masters in their first attempts: Horton Smith in the first Masters, Gene Sarazen in 1935 and (most recently) Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Jordan Spieth came close to joining this group in 2014 when he held a share of the 54-hole lead, and Will Zalatoris nearly accomplished the feat in 2021 when he fell just short of Matsuyama. Eliminated: Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama
3. It's a steady climb
They say Augusta National is an acquired taste. One may not understand the nuances the first or second time around, but once there is a game plan, all that's left on the table is execution. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket with all 10 having previously collected a top-40 result. Despite his improvement on golf's biggest stage, that knocks out world No. 5 Max Homa, whose best finish (T48) came last year as well as a couple other young Americans. Eliminated: Max Homa, Sam Burns, Cameron Young
4. What have you done for me lately?
Each green jacket winner since 2013 has notched a top-15 finish on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in a stroke-play event over the calendar year leading up to the Masters. Six of those had already entered the winner's circle on the year -- see Scheffler in 2022, Johnson in 2020 and Spieth in 2015 -- while eight had found a spot on the podium in the form of a top-three result. Eliminated: Billy Horschel
5. Major-championship pedigree
There have been a number of first-time major winners who have broken through at Augusta, but none have come without some prior experience on a comparable stage. Eight of the 10 most recent Masters champions had at least a major runner-up result already to their name with all 10 having a T6 finish or better. In the year prior to winning, five of the last 10 collected a runner-up finish in a major championship while eight had a top-10 finish. Eliminated: Tom Hoge
We are down to just 18 players who could possibly don the green jacket ...
6. Let's get technical
Strokes-gained data is a beautiful thing. In the calendar year leading up to their respective Masters coronations, all 10 champions were averaging at least +0.65 strokes gained per round with the mean of the group coming in at a whopping +2.14. Only nine players are currently averaging more than +2.00. It was not Scheffler (+2.50) or Spieth (+2.38) who boasted the most impressive metrics ahead of their victories but rather Watson (+3.02) and Johnson (+3.91) -- albeit it in an unconventional fashion given the November Masters -- who eclipsed the three-stroke hurdle. A pair of contenders from the 2022 tournament haven't looked like their usual selves in the early stages of 2023 and will graciously exit stage left. Eliminated: Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry
7. Speak softly and carry a big stick
Off-the-tee numbers are the most predictive indicator of success in the world of golf -- just look at the best players in the world at the moment, they are also some of the best drivers of the golf ball maybe ever. The same rings true at Augusta where the last 10 winners were averaging at least +0.10 strokes gained off the tee per round in the calendar year of their victory. Reed was the low man of this group with +0.14 strokes gained off the tee per round, 0.01 worse than Spieth's current average. The golden boy lives (for now), but a popular pick does not. Eliminated: Xander Schauffele
8. Iron it out
Augusta National has often catered to some of the best iron players in the world (like Woods). Over the last three months, Collin Morikawa has been the best in this category (+1.22 strokes gained approach per round), while a number of big names have struggled with their scoring clubs. The past 10 winners were averaging a minimum of +0.40 strokes gained approach per round -- a bar some historically strong approach players haven't come close to sniffing. Eliminated: Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama
9. There needs to be a Plan B
As they say, stuff hits the fan during major championships, and the Masters is no different. More times than not, there will be some sort of turbulence over the course of 72 holes, and a player's short game will be tested. Whether it was Scheffler's chip-in on No. 3 in the final round of 2022 or Danny Willett's up-and-down on the 71st hole in 2016, an around-the-green presence is required in some shape or form. This is where a bulk of potential winners simply fall short of the +0.20 strokes gained around the green clip from the prior 10 winners. Eliminated: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley
So where does that leave us?
From a field of 88 of golfers, only six -- Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth -- remain. Rahm has won the most events this season (three), while Cantlay has the best tee-to-green numbers of the bunch. Spieth easily has the history at Augusta National in his favor, while Scheffler (repeat champion) and McIlroy (career grand slam) have golf history staring them in their respective faces. And honestly, I expected Thomas would be eliminated by now, but he made it to the end as well. That's cool. He'll probably win, somehow.
