The Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves for a matinee matchup on Saturday. The Marlins and Braves meet for Game 1 of a doubleheader with Atlanta winning the series opener on Friday. Atlanta is 67-46 this season and aiming for a repeat championship. Miami is 50-62 overall and looking to play a spoiler role down the stretch as it sets 12.5 games out of the. final NL Wild Card spot.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Atlanta as the -130 money-line favorite (risk $130 to win $100) for this 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5 in the latest Braves vs. Marlins odds. Before making any Marlins vs. Braves picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 299-254 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $800 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Braves vs. Marlins and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Marlins vs. Braves:
- Braves vs. Marlins money line: Braves -130, Marlins +110
- Braves vs. Marlins over-under: 7.5 runs
- Braves vs. Marlins run line: Braves -1.5 (+140)
- ATL: The Braves are 18-22 in day games
- MIA: The Marlins are 22-22 in day games
- Braves vs. Marlins picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Marlins
Miami has the edge in playing at home, and the Marlins have tremendous team speed. Miami leads the NL in stolen bases this season, and the Marlins also have a fully capable bullpen with stout metrics in key areas. Miami is also in a friendly position with its starting pitcher in this matchup with Jesus Luzardo taking the mound against Kyle Muller, who was just called up from Triple-A for Atlanta. Luzardo owns a 3.29 ERA this season, and he has 52 strikeouts in 41 innings of work.
Luzardo also enters Saturday with a 0.95 WHIP and opponents have a .551 OPS against him in 2022. On other side, Muller has a 5.49 ERA in his career and, in his lone start this season, Atlanta's starter allowed seven earned runs in 2.2 innings of work. Muller was not originally scheduled to start for the Braves on Saturday, and that is an edge for the Marlins.
Why you should back the Braves
Atlanta is in many ways the superior team in this matchup, as evidenced by its win-loss record this season. The Braves have numerous strengths, including a talented prospect on the mound in Muller. Though he doesn't have extensive Major League experience, Muller had a red-hot summer in Triple-A with a 1.87 ERA in June and a 2.95 ERA in July. He is backed by a lights-out bullpen.
The Braves rank No. 1 in the National League in wins above replacement from relief pitchers, and Atlanta is in the top three of the NL in bullpen ERA, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate. The Braves also outpace the Marlins on the offensive side, with Atlanta ranking in the top three of the NL in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases, OPS, doubles and runs scored.
How to make Marlins vs. Braves picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total, projecting 8.2 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Braves vs. Marlins? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.