For the next several days, we at Eye On Baseball will be breaking down the cases of each candidate on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for 2015. We'll present the pros and cons of each player as they relate to existing Hall of Fame standards and then wager a guess as to whether the candidate in question makes it in this time around by earning the necessary 75 percent of votes. Up now is Edgar Martinez ...
Seattle Mariners legend Edgar Martinez is on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for the sixth time, and, as ever, his offensive dossier remains deeply impressive.
Across parts of 18 seasons, Martinez batted .312/.418/.515 (147 OPS+) with 2,247 hits; 309 home runs; 514 doubles; 1,283 walks; 1,261 RBI and 1,219 runs scored. He ranks in the top 100 all-time in batting average (92nd), on-base percentage (20th), slugging percentage (70th), OPS (33rd), OPS+ (44th), walks (45th), doubles (51st), extra-base hits (95th), times on base (81st), intentional walks (95th), offensive WAR (68th) and WAR among position players (75th). As well, Martinez was a seven-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger, and twice he finished in the top 10 of the AL MVP balloting.
There's no doubt that Martinez, on a rate basis, is Hall-worthy -- properly weight his tremendous on-base skills, and he's perhaps one of the 30 greatest hitters ever (again, on a rate basis). Peak? He's got that covered, as well. From 1995-2001 -- a span that covers Martinez's age-32 through age-38 campaigns -- he put up an OPS+ of 164 and averaged 146 games per season (and keep in mind that strike-shortened 1995 drags down that games played figure just a bit). Over that same span, he authored an OBP of .446. Bottom line? For several years, Martinez was one of the very best hitters in the game.
If the story ended there, then Martinez would've been inducted by now. But it doesn't. The first thing working against Martinez is his (very relative) lack of playing time. By most benchmarks, he had a lengthy career. However, this discussion is about the Hall of Fame and the standards thereof. On that point, it's worth noting that Martinez ranks just 181st all-time in plate appearances and 208th in games played. Likely having more impact on his case is that Martinez was a primary designated hitter.
Martinez spent more than 4,500 defensive innings at third base in his career and another handful of frames at first base. However, in the end he spent 68.3 percent of his games played at DH. In a sense, though, the Rubicon has been crossed. Presumably, a few flinty traditionalists would prefer that no primary DH ever darken the Hall's door, but just last year Frank Thomas, who spent 56.4 percent of his career at DH, went in on the first ballot (and did so with 83.7 percent of the vote).
Given that, the argument is not whether a player who spends the majority of his career as a designated hitter can make the Hall -- he evidently can. The matter at hand as how high the bar is. Thus far, the answer seems to be "somewhere between Frank Thomas and Edgar Martinez."
If we reduce the argument to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which includes a "penalty" for time spent at DH, then we find that Martinez lags Thomas by a margin of 73.7 to 68.3, so five wins or so. To be sure, Thomas's 521 homers (and two AL MVP awards) succor his case, but in terms of overall value, the two players are not so far apart. (Note: This isn't to cite WAR as the unassailable final word, but it does a good job of capturing career value, particularly with bat-first sorts like Thomas and Martinez.)
But then there's this very relevant divide. Thomas's brief and successful history on the ballot is noted above. Here's how Martinez's BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot percentages have run ...
2010: 36.2 percent
2011: 32.9 percent
2012: 36.5 percent
2013: 35.9 percent
2014: 25.2 percent
If you're Martinez or one of his advocates, then those are very discouraging numbers. He made no discernible gains in his first four years on the ballot, and then last year he dropped significantly. With half of his BBWAA ballot eligibility exhausted, it's hard to envision his ever getting to 75 percent. A borderline candidate in the best of times, Martinez now sees his support being eaten alive by a ballot swollen with worthies.
In the end, it seems Martinez's career lacks the signature hook -- 3,000 hits or 500 homers -- needed to overcome any hang-ups about his, well, DH-ness. But what a hitter he was.
