Mariners vs. Rangers odds, line: MLB picks, predictions for May 22 from model on 12-5 roll

American League West teams conclude their three-game series on Wednesday when the Texas Rangers host the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Wednesday's first pitch is set for 2:05 p.m. ET. Each team leans on its offense as both clubs challenge for second place in the AL West behind the Astros. Texas ranks sixth or better in average, runs and home runs, while Seattle leads the majors in runs and homers. The latest Mariners vs. Rangers odds show Seattle favored at -120 on the money line (risk $120 to win $100), while the over-under is 12 runs. Before making any Mariners vs. Rangers picks of your own, listen to the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is off to a profitable start on its top-rated MLB picks in 2019. It also entered Week 9 on a strong 12-5 run on top-rated MLB money line picks. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Mariners vs. Rangers. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows the Rangers will go with Adrian Sampson (1-3, 4.79), who has five starts in 10 appearances. He has yet to go past six innings, but in seven of his appearances, he's allowed two runs or fewer. The Mariners may lead the league in homers, but they're a swing-and-miss bunch, too. Seattle hitters have struck out nearly 60 more times than their Texas counterparts, and the Rangers have a higher overall slugging percentage despite the Mariners' power numbers.

But just because Texas boasts a better slugging percentage does not mean it is the best value on the Mariners vs. Rangers money line.

That's because Marco Gonzales (5-3, 3.65) will go for the Mariners. Gonzales is only 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA in his last four starts, but the one outing before that, he mowed down the Rangers, tossing seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts on April 25. Over six career starts against Texas, Gonzales is 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA.

While Seattle is struggling lately, it is 8-2 in its last 10 road games against teams with a losing record, and the Mariners have won four of Gonzales' last five starts against AL West rivals. And they still have the more powerful team, with four players at 12 or more homers (Daniel Vogelbach's 14 and Edwin Encarnacion's 13 lead the way). Sampson is averaging more than one home run allowed per start. 

So who wins Rangers vs. Mariners? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rangers vs. Mariners money line you should be all over Wednesday, all from the advanced model that simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and find out.

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