The Pittsburgh Pirates aim to win a road series on Thursday. Pittsburgh took the first two games against the Miami Marlins before dropping a Wednesday night contest at loanDepot Park. As such, the Marlins can split the four-game series with a win, and Miami is 42-45 this season. Pittsburgh is 38-51, though the Pirates have won four of the last five games.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the -170 money line favorite (risk $170 to win $100) for this 12:10 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 7.5 in the latest Pirates vs. Marlins odds. Before making any Marlins vs. Pirates picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 275-236 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $400 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Marlins vs. Pirates, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Pirates vs. Marlins:

  • Pirates vs. Marlins money line: Marlins -165, Pirates +143
  • Pirates vs. Marlins over-under: 7.5 runs
  • Pirates vs. Marlins run line: Marlins -1.5 (+122)
  • PITT: The Pirates are 23-24 in day games
  • MIA: The Marlins are 17-18 in day games
  • Pirates vs. Marlins picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Why you should back the Pirates

Pittsburgh is above average in a couple of power categories. The Pirates are in the top five of the National League with 15 triples, and Pittsburgh is also above the median with 97 home runs this season. On the pitching side, Zach Thompson brings confidence to Pittsburgh, and the 28-year-old right-hander has a 2.74 ERA in 11 outings since the start of May. 

He is limiting opponents to a .299 on-base percentage over that sample, and Thompson has a 3.76 career ERA since arriving in the majors. Thompson is also facing a vulnerable Miami offense. The Marlins are in the bottom three of the NL in runs scored, doubles, walks and on-base percentage, with bottom-five marks in hits, slugging percentage and OPS.

Why you should back the Marlins

MIami has tremendous team speed. The Marlins lead the National League by a comfortable margin with 72 stolen bases, and Miami puts pressure on the opposition as a result. The Marlins are also facing a vulnerable Pirates bullpen, with Pittsburgh's relievers posting a 4.69 ERA and an ugly walk rate of 3.95 per nine innings. 

Miami is also in a strong position with the pitching staff, as the Marlins will send 24-year-old left-hander Braxton Garrett to the mound. He is issuing only 2.0 walks per nine innings this season, and Garrett is holding left-handed hitters to a .617 OPS. Garrett has a 2.77 ERA in July, and Miami's bullpen is generating more than a strikeout per inning. The Pirates also rank dead-last in the National League in runs scored, hits, doubles, batting average, and on-base percentage.

How to make Pirates vs. Marlins picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 8.8 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Marlins vs. Pirates? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.