The Philadelphia Phillies will try to clinch the series win at home on Sunday when they take on the Miami Marlins. After dropping the opener on Friday, the Phillies stormed back to take a 7-1 win in Game 2 on the strength of four home runs, including two by Phil Gosselin and one each by Didi Gregorius and J.T. Realmuto. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 1:05 p.m. ET.
The Phillies are coming off an 81-81 season in which they faded in the second half, while the Marlins look to improve on a 57-105 campaign from a year ago. Philadelphia is the -150 favorite on the money line in the latest Marlins vs. Phillies odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total runs scored is 9.5. Before making any Marlins vs. Phillies picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which has simulated every pitch of Marlins vs. Phillies 10,000 times, is coming off a banner 2019 season. The model returned more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks, and anyone who followed it saw huge rewards.
- Marlins vs. Phillies money line: Miami +140. Philadelphia -150
- Marlins vs. Phillies run line: Philadelphia -1.5
- Marlins vs. Phillies over-under: 9.5 runs
- MIA: Sixth in the NL with a .984 fielding percentage in 2019
- PHI: Third in the NL in doubles a year ago with 311
Why you should back the Phillies
Hard work over the break will be rewarded when right-hander Vince Velasquez gets the start after learning a cutter and improving his change-up to compliment his fastball and curveball. He was 7-8 in 2019 with a 4.91 ERA, allowing 64 earned runs in 117 1/3 innings. Velasquez has had Miami's number. In 15 career starts, he is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA in 72 2/3 innings with 20 walks, 71 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP.
Offensively, shortstop Didi Gregorius has started the season red hot, going 3-for-7 (.429) with two home runs and a 1.286 slugging percentage. In 19 career games against the Marlins, Gregorius has hit well, with a .296 batting average, three doubles, two triples and four home runs.
Why you should back the Marlins
Right-hander Jose Urena takes the mound for the Marlins. He was Miami's Opening Day starter the past two years and is the team's most experienced starter. He had a solid spring training, posting a 1.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 17 innings. Although he was 4-10 with a 5.21 ERA in 84 2/3 innings in 2019, he fared well against Philadelphia, allowing just three runs in three games. In 15 innings against the Phillies last season, he had a 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
Shortstop Miguel Rojas has opened the season on fire with back-to-back 2-for-3 performances. In 68 career games against the Phils, Rojas is hitting .276 with 10 doubles, three home runs and 19 RBIs. Also having success at Philadelphia's expense is third baseman Brian Anderson, who is a lifetime .306 hitter against the Phils, including 12 doubles, six homers and 20 RBIs.
How to make Marlins vs. Phillies picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as the simulation says both starters combine for nearly 10 strikeouts. it also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Marlins vs. Phillies? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Marlins vs. Phillies spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that returned over $1,400 on MLB picks last year.