The Seattle Mariners have put together three straight winning seasons for the first time since the early 2000s. However, only one of those three seasons -- 2022 -- has yielded a postseason berth. The organization aims to change that in 2024. Yes, there is a plain lack of commitment on the part of club ownership, but they have a true superstar anchoring the lineup and a crop of young pitching that's the envy of almost every other team in MLB. Now let's have a closer look at the 2024 Mariners.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 88-74 (third place in AL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 87.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +2000
Projected lineup
- J.P. Crawford, SS
- Julio Rodríguez, CF
- Jorge Polanco, 2B
- Mitch Garver, DH
- Cal Raleigh, C
- Ty France, 1B
- Luke Raley, RF
- Mitch Haniger, LF
- Josh Rojas, 3B
Last season, the M's on offense ranked 12th in the majors in runs scored and 16th in OPS. New to the scene in Seattle for 2024 are second baseman Jorge Polanco, DH Mitch Garver, outfielders Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, and bench pieces Luis Urías and Seby Zavala. With his elite quality-of-contact indicators and as he moves closer to what should be his prime seasons, you may consider Rodríguez a strong candidate for AL MVP honors in 2024.
Projected rotation
- Luis Castillo, RHP
- George Kirby, RHP
- Logan Gilbert, RHP
- Bryce Miller, RHP
- Bryan Woo, RHP
Seattle last season ranked a strong fourth in MLB in starters' ERA. The starting five from last season remains intact, and the unit once again figures to be a strength for the M's.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP Andrés Muñoz
- Setup: RHP Ryne Stanek, LHP Tayler Saucedo, RHP Gregory Santos
- Middle: LHP Gabe Speier, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP Matt Brash
- Long: RHP Austin Voth
The Mariners' bullpen in 2023 ranked fourth in MLB in relief ERA and fourth in relief FIP. Offseason additions to the relief corps include Santos, Stanek, and Voth, among others. Brash and Santos are presently sidelined with injury.
Will they score enough runs?
The figures above suggest that while the Seattle offense in 2023 was hardly a disaster, it also wasn't much of an asset. Yes, that OPS is not particularly encouraging for the M's, but it's worth noting that their xwOBA (what's this?) was tied for ninth in MLB. In terms of batted-ball quality, this was a solid unit. Therein lies some hope for improvement.
Last season, the second base position was the biggest weak spot for the M's, as those manning the position combined for an OPS of just .607. The addition of Jorge Polanco via trade with the Twins should help matters on that front. While Polanco is no stranger to injuries to his lower-half, he's quite productive when healthy, particularly by the standards of middle infielders. Over the last three seasons, Polanco boasts an OPS+ of 120 at the plate while averaging 30 home runs per 162 games played.
Elsewhere, Mitch Garver was signed to fill the DH role. Seattle DHs in 2023 combined to slash .207/.285/.392, which isn't what you want from a bat-only role such as that one. Garver has strong plate discipline, both in terms of his willingness to take a walk and his related capacity to lay off pitches out of the zone. As well, he squares the ball up, is back to crushing fastballs, and has drastically reduced his ground-ball percentage. He's very much a near-term upgrade for Seattle. At first base, Ty France was victimized by poor luck with the bat and is a bounce-back candidate for 2024. At third base, a Josh Rojas-Luis Urías appears to be the arrangement, and therein lies a risk of not getting what you need from a corner position.
Overall, though, there's reason to think the Mariners' offense may be improved in certain areas and more generally benefit from modest improvement on the luck front. It's hardly a juggernaut, but it may be enough given the M's likely excellence on the run-prevention front.
Can the rotation be baseball's best?
The short answer: Yes. This particular unit was indeed a strong one in 2023, and as noted above is intact for 2024. In addition to that fourth-best ERA noted above, the Seattle rotation last season ranked third in FIP, first in all of baseball in innings, and fourth in average fastball velocity. Stabilizing ace Luis Castillo has for the most part been a model of health and durability, and he's still at the top of his game. Behind him is an impressive assortment of high-ceiling young arms who have largely delivered at the highest level thus far. Of those young arms, Logan Gilbert is the oldest, and he doesn't turn 27 until May.
Looking forward, the ZiPS projection system available at FanGraphs pegs Woo as the only M's starter in 2024 to have an ERA above 4.00 (he's estimated at 4.11). Last season, this starting five -- Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, and Woo -- combined for an ERA of 3.69 and an FIP of 3.80, both of which are strong figures by contemporary rotation standards. Turning again to ZiPS, this quintet in 2024 is projected for a combined ERA of 3.60 and a combined FIP of 3.74. Even though projection systems are conservative by design, one of the best starting fives of 2023 is expected to be even better in 2024. Obviously, health can get in the way of all this (although the M's have a good depth in piece in former top-100 prospect and former No. 6 overall pick in 24-year-old Emerson Hancock), but right now this looks like an elite unit.
What would make for a successful season?
The task is a potentially onerous one considering the M's share a division with the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers and the modern dynasty Houston Astros, who have made at least as far as the ALCS in each of the last seven seasons. Even so, an AL West title is the standard for the 2024 Mariners. The M's have claimed just three division titles in their history and haven't hoisted the flag since their 116-win campaign of 2001. Obviously, a deep playoff run is also expected of the team that prevails in such a tough division, but first things first for Seattle. Overcome ownership's paltry commitment to the mission and best the Rangers and Astros for the AL West crown. The shimmering presence of Rodríguez plus all that pitching makes this a plausible objective.
