Hands down, the best closer on the free-agent market this offseason is five-time All-Star Josh Hader, most recently of the San Diego Padres. Hader had one of his best seasons in 2023, converting 33 of 38 in save chances while pitching to a 1.28 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. For his career, he has 648 strikeouts in 388 2/3 innings -- a 15.0 K/9 mark. Even in this high strikeout era, that's preposterous.
And yet, despite dominating for the better part of a decade, Hader's market has been quiet this offseason, at least publicly. Part of that is the market has been quiet for just about everyone, but teams are also beginning to steer clear of the dedicated closer bullpen model. They're instead relying on one or two (or three) high-leverage relievers who can pitch at any time rather than be married to the ninth.
There is something to be said for having a lockdown closer, however. A reliever like Hader shortens games and requires less mixing and matching. Hader's team can still employ those one or two high-leverage relievers who pitch at any time, except they won't have to worry about the ninth inning. Hader has that covered. The other top relievers can be deployed earlier in the game.
Last offseason, Edwin Díaz signed a five-year, $102 million contract to remain with the New York Mets. It is the largest contract ever given to a reliever both in terms of total guarantee ($102 million) and average annual value ($20.4 million). Not surprisingly, Hader is reportedly looking to break Díaz's record this offseason. From SNY:
The holdup (on Hader's market) is that, according to multiple other teams who have engaged on Hader, he is seeking the largest-ever contract for a closer in history -- more than Edwin Díaz's five-year, $102 million deal with the Mets. That is a reasonable ask given his historical levels of production, but it doesn't fit the budget of a team that needs to spend on innings.
Díaz was coming off one of the greatest relief seasons ever at the time -- he struck out 118 of the 235 batters he faced, or 50.2% -- though his track record with the Mets prior to 2022 was up and down. Hader himself struggled badly in the middle of the 2022 season, which contributed in part to his trade away from the Milwaukee Brewers.
Hader righted the ship later that season, though. Watch the ninth inning of the 2022 Division Series between the Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Hader blew past Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman on 10 pitches to close out the series. He overpowered three of the game's best hitters. There's not a single comfortable, competitive swing here:
Two contract records have already been set this offseason. Shohei Ohtani's $700 million contract is the largest contract in sports history (not just baseball history) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million contract is the largest contract ever given to a pitcher. Can Hader beat Díaz's contract to set yet another contract record?
Here are three reasons Hader could break Díaz's record, and also two reasons he might not do it.
1. He's actually a free agent
Díaz never became a true free agent last offseason, instead re-signing with the Mets during the five-day exclusive negotiating period at the outset of the offseason. That's very rare. Usually when a player gets that close to free agency -- only days away! -- he tests the market. Díaz reupped with the Mets without ever hearing what other teams would offer. There was no bidding war.
Hader is, obviously, an actual free agent who is able to negotiate with any and all teams. Things have been quiet, for sure, and only a few teams will offer big money for a reliever, but Hader can solicit multiple bids and leverage them against each other. Díaz was only days away from free agency, so he had leverage against the Mets, but not as much as he would have had with multiple offers in hand.
All it takes is two teams -- two interested teams competing for one player and driving up the price. Hader is free to talk with all 30 teams. Díaz, when he signed his record deal, was only able to talk to the Mets.
2. There are few high-end starters available
This free-agent class was thin on high-end starters to begin with and the options have since dwindled with Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola and Eduardo Rodriguez having already signed. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is available, as is World Series champion Jordan Montgomery. After them, you're looking at guys who are either coming off injury or are reclamation projects.
If the starting pitching help isn't there, teams could pivot to instead beef up their bullpen, thus improving their pitching staff that way. It's not a perfect plan -- poor rotation work will limit the usefulness of your top relievers -- but it is a plan, and at least one team is considering it. From The Athletic in December (before Yamamoto signed):
A rotation without Yamamoto would require at least one more starter, and the Yankees, at least internally, have discussed a reunion with free-agent lefty Jordan Montgomery. The team also could seek to build what one source described as a "super-charged" bullpen.
The Yankees did indeed miss out on Yamamoto and, if New York chooses to pivot to a "super-charged" bullpen, Hader would be an obvious target. Hader could assume ninth-inning duties and push incumbent closer Clay Holmes, a dominant ground ball pitcher, into a fireman role. Holmes could then face the other team's best hitters in the sixth, seventh, eighth, whenever.
The fact is, there are few true difference-making pitchers available right now, and Hader is one of them. He's a reliever who generally only pitches when his team is leading by no more than three runs in the ninth inning, but Hader is excellent, and would improve any bullpen. If the rotation help just isn't there, beefing up the bullpen with Hader is a viable alternative.
3. He's very durable
Hader throws hard -- his sinker averaged 96.3 mph and topped out at 98.6 mph in 2023 -- and there is some herky-jerkiness to his delivery. There's a lot of moving parts and it's easy to think deliveries like Hader's will lead to injury, but he's had no trouble in that department during his career. His only career injured list trip was a 10-day stint after testing positive for COVID-19 in 2021. That's all.
Pitchers are durable up until they're not (see: Sandy Alcantara's Tommy John surgery), though the best predictor of future injury is past injury, and Hader has no past injuries to speak of. Also, Hader's durability also extends to his ability to remain effective when pitching back-to-back days. Here are his career numbers:
- 0 days rest: .616 OPS allowed
- 1 day of rest: .612 OPS allowed
- 2+ days of rest: .504 OPS allowed
Every reliever is most effective when you give him multiple days of rest and Hader is no different. But, when you need him to pitch on back-to-back days or three times in four days, there's no drop off in performance. He's every bit as effective pitching the second straight day as he is coming off one day of rest. Hader is built to handle tough workloads.
The game is so bullpen-heavy these days that having a reliever -- your best reliever -- who doesn't wear down or otherwise have a slip in performance when pitching back-to-back days is a necessity more than a luxury. Still, you can only push Hader so far. After all, you don't want him making 85 appearances or anything like that, but he's been injury free and his arm bounces back well after multiple or consecutive appearances.
Why Hader won't break Díaz's contract record
There are two simple reasons Hader may not break Díaz's contract record. First and foremost, his age. Hader turns 30 in April and he is 16 days younger than Díaz, meaning he is a year older now than Díaz was when he became a free agent last offseason. Teams will pay more for 29-years-olds than 30-year-olds. As a result, Hader comes with one fewer peak season than Díaz did last winter.
And second, Hader is attached to draft pick compensation. Díaz was last offseason as well, though because he re-signed with the Mets, there was no draft pick forfeiture. Unless Hader goes back to the Padres (which would qualify as a surprise), the club that signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick(s) and international bonus pool money to sign him, and teams don't like doing that.
The exact compensation depends on the signing team's competitive balance tax and revenue sharing status, though it will be at least their second pick in the 2024 draft and $500,000 for the 2025 international signing period. For CBT paying teams like the Mets and Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, the penalty is even greater. The free-agent compensation rules will limit Hader's market.
Keep in mind free agents do not sign the fair offer or the average contract offer. They almost always sign the biggest offer. Sometimes, as we've seen already this offseason, that offer can sometimes far exceed expectations. My hunch is Hader will not break Díaz's contract record, but it only takes one desperate team to make it happen.