We're into May now and working our way toward the one-quarter mark of the 2018 regular season. As such, why not check in with our compadres at SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter) and have a look at the latest playoff projections? Why not indeed.
First up, let's check out the American League ...
AMERICAN LEAGUE | POWER RANK | FULL SEASON PROJECTION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
RANK | SIM% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | ROS WIN | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | WIN AL ODDS | AL% | WORLD SERIES ODDS | WS% | |
New York Yankees (24-10) | 1 | 63.7% | 102.0 | 60.0 | 63.0% | 61.0% | 52.8% | 98.3% | 3/1, 25% | 32.08% | 6/1, 14.3% | 18.00% |
Boston Red Sox (25-9) | 2 | 63.4% | 100.9 | 61.1 | 62.3% | 59.3% | 46.5% | 97.5% | 7/2, 22.2% | 32.93% | 7/1, 12.5% | 17.08% |
Houston Astros (22-15) | 3 | 59.6% | 96.6 | 65.4 | 59.6% | 59.6% | 74.8% | 89.6% | 3/1, 25% | 14.45% | 9/1, 10% | 7.45% |
Cleveland Indians (17-17) | 5 | 58.4% | 96.2 | 65.8 | 59.4% | 61.8% | 95.6% | 96.2% | 4/1, 20% | 15.21% | 8/1, 11.1% | 8.51% |
Los Angeles Angels (21-13) | 9 | 54.6% | 87.2 | 74.8 | 53.8% | 51.7% | 15.3% | 44.8% | 6/1, 14.3% | 0.74% | 12/1, 7.7% | 0.24% |
Seattle Mariners (19-14) | 11 | 52.9% | 84.9 | 77.1 | 52.4% | 51.1% | 8.0% | 28.5% | 25/1, 3.8% | 2.98% | 50/1, 2% | 1.28% |
Toronto Blue Jays (19-16) | 13 | 52.5% | 84.7 | 77.3 | 52.3% | 51.8% | 0.7% | 26.1% | 25/1, 3.8% | 0.39% | 50/1, 2% | 0.18% |
Oakland Athletics (18-17) | 20 | 49.5% | 79.8 | 82.2 | 49.3% | 48.7% | 1.7% | 8.5% | 50/1, 2% | 0.69% | 100/1, 1% | 0.27% |
Minnesota Twins (14-17) | 21 | 48.3% | 78.8 | 83.2 | 48.6% | 49.4% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 10/1, 9.1% | 0.52% | 20/1, 4.8% | 0.17% |
Tampa Bay Rays (15-17) | 22 | 46.4% | 75.1 | 86.9 | 46.4% | 46.2% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 150/1, 0.7% | 0.01% | 300/1, 0.3% | 0.01% |
Texas Rangers (14-23) | 23 | 43.5% | 71.5 | 90.5 | 44.1% | 46.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Detroit Tigers (14-20) | 26 | 39.5% | 63.7 | 98.3 | 39.3% | 38.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Chicago White Sox (9-23) | 27 | 38.1% | 63.5 | 98.5 | 39.2% | 41.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1500/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 3000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Kansas City Royals (11-23) | 28 | 38.0% | 62.5 | 99.5 | 38.6% | 40.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1500/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 3000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Baltimore Orioles (8-26) | 30 | 34.8% | 58.3 | 103.7 | 36.0% | 39.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1500/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 3000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
So here's how the playoff field in the AL is currently forecast by the SportsLine Projection System ...
- Wild Card Game: Angels at Red Sox
- ALDS: Indians vs. Astros
- ALDS: Wild-card winner vs. Yankees
The first thing that jumps out is the clash of titans in the AL East. The Red Sox and Yankees are each projected to top 100 wins for the season, and the AL East race right now is expected to be determined by a single game. As such, every head-to-head game between Boston and New York figures to be of vital importance. (They play this week, you know.) Also note that it's quite possible the Yankees and Red Sox would be matched up in the ALDS. Speaking of which, the Yankees back when they were 8-8 had a 4.0 percent chance of winning the World Series. As you see above, that figure is now up to a healthy 18.0 percent.
Elsewhere, the Indians' relatively start hasn't affected their long-term outlook all that much. Meantime, the Angels, Mariners, and Blue Jays are all expected to be in the mix for that second wild-card berth. On the grim side of things, the poor Orioles are projected to finish more than 40 games (!) behind not one but two division rivals.
Now to the National League ...
NATIONAL LEAGUE | POWER RANK | FULL SEASON PROJECTION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
RANK | SIM% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | ROS WIN | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | WIN NL ODDS | NL% | WORLD SERIES ODDS | WS% | |
Washington Nationals (19-17) | 4 | 58.9% | 96.6 | 65.4 | 59.6% | 61.6% | 84.8% | 91.6% | 9/2, 18.2% | 11.62% | 10/1, 9.1% | 6.77% |
Chicago Cubs (17-15) | 6 | 57.7% | 94.3 | 67.7 | 58.2% | 59.5% | 56.4% | 81.8% | 9/2, 18.2% | 18.74% | 10/1, 9.1% | 10.07% |
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-11) | 7 | 57.2% | 90.9 | 71.1 | 56.1% | 53.0% | 48.7% | 71.7% | 9/2, 18.2% | 29.62% | 10/1, 9.1% | 12.81% |
St Louis Cardinals (20-13) | 8 | 56.5% | 90.8 | 71.2 | 56.1% | 54.9% | 36.2% | 68.0% | 9/2, 18.2% | 7.86% | 10/1, 9.1% | 2.79% |
Los Angeles Dodgers (15-19) | 10 | 54.5% | 90.1 | 71.9 | 55.6% | 58.7% | 29.6% | 57.4% | 7/1, 12.5% | 15.73% | 14/1, 6.7% | 8.76% |
San Francisco Giants (19-16) | 12 | 52.7% | 85.0 | 77.0 | 52.5% | 52.0% | 12.9% | 32.3% | 12/1, 7.7% | 5.87% | 25/1, 3.8% | 2.18% |
Colorado Rockies (20-15) | 14 | 51.6% | 82.5 | 79.5 | 50.9% | 49.2% | 8.8% | 22.2% | 15/1, 6.2% | 3.71% | 30/1, 3.2% | 1.20% |
New York Mets (18-15) | 16 | 51.0% | 81.9 | 80.1 | 50.6% | 49.6% | 5.9% | 17.8% | 9/1, 10% | 1.89% | 18/1, 5.3% | 0.59% |
Atlanta Braves (19-14) | 15 | 51.3% | 81.9 | 80.1 | 50.6% | 48.8% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 20/1, 4.8% | 2.73% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.86% |
Pittsburgh Pirates (19-16) | 17 | 50.3% | 80.8 | 81.2 | 49.9% | 48.7% | 4.2% | 14.2% | 30/1, 3.2% | 1.09% | 60/1, 1.6% | 0.34% |
Milwaukee Brewers (20-15) | 18 | 50.3% | 80.2 | 81.8 | 49.5% | 47.4% | 3.1% | 12.7% | 20/1, 4.8% | 0.67% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.25% |
Philadelphia Phillies (19-15) | 19 | 49.7% | 79.4 | 82.6 | 49.0% | 47.2% | 3.2% | 10.9% | 25/1, 3.8% | 0.48% | 50/1, 2% | 0.17% |
San Diego Padres (13-23) | 24 | 39.9% | 65.2 | 96.8 | 40.3% | 41.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Miami Marlins (13-21) | 25 | 39.6% | 64.4 | 97.6 | 39.7% | 40.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Cincinnati Reds (8-27) | 29 | 35.7% | 60.1 | 101.9 | 37.1% | 41.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1500/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 3000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
And the current project NL playoff field ...
- Wild Card Game: Dodgers at Cardinals
- NLDS: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
- NLDS: Wild-card winner vs. Nationals
The Nationals, despite the early-season fits and starts, are still projected to be top seed in the NL. The Cubs, also off to a slow start, are still expected to prevail in the NL Central by a reasonable margin.
As for the NL West, the Dodgers have dropped from a 21.0 percent chance to win the World Series before the season started to 8.8 percent as of Tuesday, while Arizona has gone from 2.0 percent to start the season to 12.8 percent presently. It's not all bad for the Dodgers, though. Yes, they're presently four games below .500, and they've been waylaid by injuries. However, SportsLine still expects them to get to 90 wins and make the postseason for a sixth straight year. The Giants and Rockies could put some heat on them for that second wild-card spot.
On the ugly end of the continuum, the Reds could challenge the aforementioned Orioles for the "honor" of top overall draft pick in 2019.
In all, it's looking like a good year for classic rivalries. The Sox-Yanks, Cubs-Card, and Dodgers-Giants could all be crossing swords down the stretch with playoff berths and seeding on the line. We'll sign up for some of that.
