New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton launched his 400th career home run on Tuesday night in a 5-1 victory against the Detroit Tigers (box score). Here's a look at the blast, measured at 116.8 mph, in all its video glory:
A 451-ft blast for Home Run No. 4⃣0⃣0⃣@Giancarlo818 💪 pic.twitter.com/fXgulppxh2
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 6, 2023
Stanton is the 58th player to clear the 400-homer threshold. He required just 1,520 games to do it, making him one of the quickest to the mark. Indeed, according to Baseball Reference's research, only three players have recorded more home runs in their first 1,520 big-league games: Mark McGwire (449), Babe Ruth (422), and Alex Rodriguez (407). That's good company to keep.
With Stanton's 400th home run out of the way, it's fair to wonder about his chances of joining an even more select group: the 500-homer club. Only 28 players have earned access in Major League Baseball history. With Nelson Cruz's career seemingly over, Stanton is best positioned to become No. 29.
Below, we've highlighted three things worth knowing about Stanton's pursuit of No. 500.
1. Stanton's longest trek between milestones
Stanton's 400th home run came more than five years after his 300th. The gap between those milestone blasts happens to be the longest stretch of his career, and by more than a whopping 700 days at that. You can blame the delay on various factors, including the global pandemic that forced a truncated season in 2020 and a slew of injuries that we'll cover in more detail later on.
Here's a look at Stanton's journey through time and space:
No. 1: June 18, 2010
No. 100: June 17, 2013 (1,095 days)
No. 200: July 6, 2016 (1,115 days)
No. 300: August 30, 2018 (785 days)
No. 400: Sept. 5, 2023 (1,832 days)
If Stanton were to require another 1,832 days to clobber his 500th home run, he would hit it on Sept. 10, 2028. Stanton would be a few months shy of his 39th birthday. It's worth noting that the guaranteed portion of his contract expires at the end of the 2027 season. It's possible, then, that he would be working on his next contract unless his play between now and then convinces the Yankees to exercise the club option they hold on his services for the 2028 campaign.
2. Statistically on pace
At the risk of stating the obvious, Stanton has been a home-run-hitting machine throughout his career. He's averaged a long ball every 3.8 games. For context, Major League Baseball's all-time home run king, Barry Bonds, averaged one every 3.92 games. (To be fair, Stanton's rate is unlikely to remain quite as good if he plays through his age-42 season, as Bonds did.)
Here's how many games Stanton would require to hit another 100 home runs if he maintains that pace, or if he slows down a bit as he continues to age:
| Every x games | Games needed | Full seasons |
|---|---|---|
3.8 | 380 | 2.3 |
4 | 400 | 2.5 |
4.5 | 450 | 2.8 |
5 | 500 | 3.1 |
Have to love it when the math is so simple. There is a catch, however, and it entails how many seasons Stanton will need to reach 380-plus games played.
3. Injuries will be x-factor
As noted in the first section, the global pandemic is one reason that Stanton took a relatively long time between home run Nos. 300 and 400. Injuries, as you may have gathered, also played a role in slowing his progress.
Stanton appeared in just 41 games combined between the 2019-20 seasons. He's since racked up triple-digit appearances in each of the last two seasons, and he should push that streak to three consecutive barring an unexpected development. Stanton needs 14 more appearances to cross the 100-game threshold this year, and the Yankees have 24 contests remaining.
| Date | Injury | Days missed |
|---|---|---|
4/16/2023 | Hamstring | 47 |
7/26/2022 | Achilles | 31 |
5/25/2022 | Ankle | 11 |
5/14/2022 | Quad | 15 |
8/9/2020 | Hamstring | 38 |
6/26/2019 | Knee | 85 |
4/1/2019 | Biceps | 79 |
Above, you can see all of Stanton's notable injuries since 2019, according to Spotrac. Many of them have been lower-body injuries, and five of the seven have caused him to miss at least a month's worth of action. Players don't often find it easier to stay on the field as they age, which complicates everything.
There's no doubt that Stanton has the strength to launch another 100 home runs if his body affords him the opportunity. (He's averaged a home run every 3.96 games since 2019.) The question is whether or not he'll be permitted enough games to make it happen. Durability is, ultimately, the great invisible factor in any pursuit of a large number.
Here's hoping, for history's sake, that Stanton can find a way to stay on the field so that he can properly place his name in the history books.
