A pair of familiar foes will square off in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs when the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks host the No. 6 seed Miami Heat on Saturday afternoon in Game 1 of the best-of-7 series. It will be a rematch of a second-round series from last season, when the Heat stunned the top-seeded Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo en route to advancing to the NBA Finals. While that series was played in the Orlando bubble, Milwaukee won two of the three meetings this season and has the home-court advantage this time around.
Tip-off is scheduled for 2 p.m. at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bucks as 4.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 227 in the latest Heat vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Bucks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Bucks vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -4.5
- Heat vs. Bucks over-under: 227 points
- Heat vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -190; Heat +170
- MIA: The Heat had the NBA's No. 5 scoring defense (108.0)
- MIL: The Bucks were No. 1 in scoring at 120.1 points per game
Why the Heat can cover
Forward Jimmy Butler led Miami in scoring (21.5 points per game), assists (7.1) and steals (2.1) but he missed all three matchups against Milwaukee this season. He averaged 23.4 points in the playoffs versus the Bucks last season and helped the Heat grab a 3-0 series lead with a 40 and 30-point game. Center Bam Adebayo had three double-doubles in that series but averaged only 13.0 points in three meetings this season, including five in last weekend's loss.
With Butler sidelined and Adebayo ineffective, Kendrick Nunn had a huge game at Milwaukee last Saturday, scoring a season-high 31 points and knocking down 4-of-5 3-point attempts. Miami also received 17 points apiece from Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic, who knocked down five 3-pointers apiece. Dragic was a nemesis against the Bucks in the postseason series, averaging 19.8 points, while Tyler Herro supplied an average of 13.2 points off the bench.
Why the Bucks can cover
Antetokounmpo had outings of nine and 15 points versus the Heat this season, but sandwiched between them was a triple-double when he had 26 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists. He was on his way to his best performance vs. Miami in the playoffs, scoring 19 points in 11 minutes before an ankle injury ended his series. Khris Middleton has been steely efficient against the Heat over the past two seasons, averaging 22.9 points over the last 11 matchups.
The Bucks averaged 10.8 made 3-pointers in the playoff loss to Miami, but they upgraded their perimeter shooting in the offseason and set an NBA record by burying 29 threes against the Heat in December. Jrue Holiday averaged 17.7 points during the season and was even better in the three meetings vs. Miami, averaging 19.0 points and knocking down 11-of-21 from long range.
How to make Bucks vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 219 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 99-66 roll on NBA picks.
