The Denver Nuggets attempt to stave off elimination against the visiting Phoenix Suns in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal on Sunday. The Nuggets have dropped the first three games of the series and are fully aware that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series hole in the postseason. That being said, Denver did advance to the Western Conference finals a year ago and it had to erase a 3-1 deficit in each of the first two rounds to reach that point.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET from Ball Arena. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Suns as three-point favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 221 in the latest Suns vs. Nuggets odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. Suns picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference semifinals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Suns vs. Nuggets spread: Suns -3
- Suns vs. Nuggets over-under: 221 points
- Suns vs. Nuggets money line: Suns -145, Nuggets +125
- PHO: The Suns are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games
- DEN: The Nuggets are averaging 101.7 points per game in the series
Why the Suns can cover
Chris Paul is averaging 21.7 points per game in the first three contests of this series after posting 9.2 points in the first round. On the mend from a shoulder injury that hindered him vs. the Lakers, Paul is shooting 57.5 percent from the floor and is 6-of-8 from behind the arc. Those numbers are only part of the story for Paul, who has 34 assists while committing just two turnovers in the series.
Paul's re-emergence has taken some of the offensive onus off All-Star guard Devin Booker, who averaged 29.2 points in the opening round and is coming off a 28-point performance on Friday. As dominant as the backcourt has been for Phoenix, the forward line has held up their end, particularly center Deandre Ayton. Not only is Ayton tasked with guarding Nikola Jokic, but he has double-doubles in all six meetings vs. Denver this season after notching 10 points and 15 rebounds on Friday.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver presented Jokic with the NBA MVP trophy prior to Game 3 and he went out and delivered a magnificent performance, posting a triple-double with 32 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists. Jokic became only the third player to post a 30-20-10 stat line in the postseason, joining a pair of Hall of Fame centers in Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The problem for the Nuggets is that Jokic outscored the rest of the team's starters combined.
Michael Porter Jr. tweaked his back in Game 1 and is averaging 13.7 points in the series, a significant decline for a player who failed to reach 20 points only four times in a 23-game span down the stretch. Reserve guard Monte Morris broke out of his offensive funk by scoring 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting in Game 3 after hitting 2-of-17 in the previous two. Guard Will Barton, playing for the second time since April 23, collected 14 points and seven rebounds Friday.
How to make Nuggets vs. Suns picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Suns vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.