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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Heat at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ABC
- Key Trend: Gordon is averaging 24 points and rebounds per game in the series
- The Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 19.5 Points & Rebounds (-129)
I fully expect the NBA season ends tonight with the Denver Nuggets as your champion. I just don't know how many the Nuggets will win by or what the total points will be, so I have no traditional play to offer you for the evening.
However, I know that one of the reasons the Nuggets have been so good in this series is the play of Aaron Gordon. Gordon has been a major part of Denver's success all season long, but for whatever reason (my lean is his defensive assignments), he wasn't as strong in the Phoenix or Los Angeles series. He had a few big games but, for the most part, struggled.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Propstarz, Sia Nejad and Jon "Buckets" Eimer to dish out Monday's best bets!
He's found himself again in the NBA Finals. Not only has he been a serious headache for Jimmy Butler, but the basket looks as wide as the Casa Bonita cliff-diving pool outside Denver. He's shooting 67% in the series and 71% from three. He's also been a monster on the boards, using his size advantage against a Miami team that hasn't been big enough to keep him out of the lane.
As a result, Gordon has averaged 24 points and rebounds per game in the series. The only time he finished below this total of 19.5 was in Game 2, when he finished with 19. Had he simply made one of his two free throw attempts that night, he'd have also cashed the over that night.
While I don't anticipate Gordon finishing with the total of 34 as he did in Game 4, he's been consistent enough in every phase of the game during the series that he should get us over the 19.5 one last time.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: As has been the case most of the series, the Projection Model has a healthy lean to one side of the total, and there are a plethora of props our Sportsline experts love tonight.
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💰The Picks
🏀 NBA Finals Props
The Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (-120) -- In Friday's letter, we took Bam Adebayo to finish with over 20.5 points and lost. He finished with 20. It was his lowest-scoring output of the series. So when I see that they've dropped his points prop to 19.5, I will gladly make the same play because it was the right play then, and it's even better now.
As I wrote last week, Bam has taken a lot more shots in this series than during the Eastern Conference Playoffs. He averaged 13.8 field goal attempts per game against Milwaukee, New York and Boston. He's averaging 19.8 in this series. He's only shot 37.5% from the floor in the last two games and still finished with at least 20 points in both of them.
The Pick: Max Strus Over 2.5 Rebounds (-129) -- This was another prop we bet for Friday night's Game 4, and it cashed early in the second quarter. Max Strus has been much more active on the glass in this series than at other times of the season. After averaging 3.2 rebounds per game during the regular season and 3.3 in the first three rounds, he's at 4.0 per game in the series.
I have some slight concern about Strus' minutes tonight because Tyler Herro is expected to give it a go, seeing as how Miami's life is on the line, and while Strus has been helpful on the boards, his three-point shot has been off in this series. So Herro may take some minutes, but I still like our chances.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Since I know you're not all NBA fans, here's a baseball play for you. The Projection Model and two of our experts are on the same side of tonight's moneyline between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels.
