A possible Eastern Conference playoff preview unfolds Monday evening in Boston when the Celtics host the Heat. Miami is atop the NBA Eastern Conference standings at 32-18, while Boston sits in ninth place at 26-25. The Heat have some injury concerns entering this game with Jimmy Butler (toe), P.J. Tucker (knee), Omer Yurtseven (protocols) and Kyle Lowry (personal) out. Boston is expected to have all its key contributors active.
Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. The over-under for points is set at 209, the lowest NBA total on the board for Monday at Caesars. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 62-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,500. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -6.5
- Heat vs. Celtics over-under: 209 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -250, Heat +205
- MIA: The Heat are 15-11 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 11-141 against the spread in home games
Why the Heat can cover
This is a rare chance to get points with the top team in the East against an opponent that's barely above .500. Miami is a solid 29-21 against the spread overall this season. And when listed as underdogs, the Heat have thrived. They're a sizzling 14-3 ATS in that scenario, so there certainly could be value on Miami, even with some injury concerns.
Bam Adebayo is back after missing an extended stretch with a thumb injury, and he's one of the league's most versatile bigs. He's averaging 17.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Miami also has a couple knockdown shooters in Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson who can step in and help provide offense, especially with Butler out.
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston is very good on the defensive end of the floor, and that is reflected in the numbers. The Celtics are No. 4 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Boston leads the league in assists allowed, giving up only 21.7 per game, and the Celtics are in the top three of the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (43.7 percent), points in the paint allowed (42.0 per game) and blocked shots (5.8 per game).
Boston is above-average in preventing free-throw attempts (20.6 per game), and opponents are shooting only 34.2 percent from 3-point range against the Celtics. Boston is also good on the glass, allowing opponents to produce only 12.4 second-chance points per game, and Miami has ball security issues on offense. The Heat are No. 27 in the NBA in turnovers, allowing the Celtics to key on contesting shots and potentially create transition opportunities.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
