Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks look to right the ship on Friday in a New Year's Day clash against the Miami Heat. The Mavericks are a disappointing 1-3 so far this season, with Miami sitting at 2-2 after reaching the 2020 NBA Finals. Maxi Kleber (ankle) is listed as questionable for Dallas, with Kristaps Porzingis (knee) ruled out. Jimmy Butler (ankle), Kelly Olynyk (knee) and Gabe Vincent (knee) are officially listed as probable for Miami.
Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Dallas. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Mavericks as 1.5-point favorites at home, holding steady from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 222.5 in the latest Heat vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Dating back to last season, it is on a stunning 62-36 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,200 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Mavericks. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Mavericks vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -1.5
- Heat vs. Mavericks over-under: 222.5 points
- Heat vs. Mavericks money line: Dallas -120, Miami +100
- MIA: The Heat are 2-2 against the spread this season
- DAL: The Mavericks are 1-3 against the spread in 2020-21
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat are a talented team, and the projected return of Butler from an injury-driven absence gives Miami even a better recipe for success. The Heat are a top-five shooting team in the league in both true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, and Miami is also a top-five team in assist rate at 65.0 percent. The Heat finished second in the NBA in free throw rate last season, and they are still effective in that area, landing in the top-10 so far in 2020-21.
Defensively, Miami is above-average in turnover rate (16.1 percent), and Bam Adebayo is an elite and versatile defensive anchor. Defensive rebounding is not necessarily a strength for Miami, but Dallas is the worst offensive rebounding team in the league so far this season, grabbing only 18.1 percent of its misses, and that should help the Heat maintain defensive efficiency on Friday.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Though he is off to a slow start by his lofty standards, Doncic is a tremendous offensive force for Dallas. Doncic is averaging 23.8 points, 6.3 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game despite shaky shooting efficiency this season, and he is flanked by Tim Hardaway Jr., who is converting 40.7 percent of his three-pointers on the way to 14.5 points per game.
Dallas remains a potent offensive team, scoring 1.13 points per possession this season after leading the NBA in offensive efficiency in 2019-20, and the Mavericks are the No. 1 team in the league in avoiding turnovers. Given that MIami currently has the worst turnover rate in the NBA offensively (21.2 percent), Dallas projects to win the possession battle, which is a substantial advantage in any matchup.
How to make Heat vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with nine players projected to score in double figures. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
