Kaseya Center hosts a pivotal Game 6 matchup on Friday evening. The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks with Miami leading the best-of-seven series by a 3-2 margin with a chance to close things out at home. New York extended the series with a 112-103 win on Wednesday but must win on the road to avoid elimination. Immanuel Quickley (ankle) is listed as doubtful for New York, with Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (Patellar) remaining out for Miami.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 6.5-point home favorites, while the over/under is 207 in the latest Knicks vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Knicks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Knicks vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Knicks:
- Knicks vs. Heat spread: Heat -6.5
- Knicks vs. Heat over/under: 207 points
- Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat -260, Knicks +210
- NYK: The Knicks are 28-17-1 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 19-26-2 against the spread in home games
- Knicks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Knicks can cover
The Knicks have taken things to another level on the defensive end during the playoffs. New York leaned heavily on a top-five offense during the regular season, but the Knicks have allowed fewer than 1.08 points per possession during the postseason run. Opponents are shooting only 43.9% from the field and 31.8% from 3-point range against New York, while averaging only 43.0 points in the paint per game. New York led the NBA in preventing points in the paint (45.9 per game) during the regular season, and the Knicks are also averaging 7.5 steals per game in the playoffs.
In the series, New York has held Miami to only 9.2 fast break points per game, thwarting transition opportunities on a regular basis, and the Knicks finished in the top five in fast break prevention and field goal percentage defense during the regular season. On the offensive end, New York carries an impressive 36.2% offensive rebound rate in the playoffs, and the Knicks are averaging well over 26 free throw attempts per game. Miami also has no answers for Brunson, who is averaging 29 points and seven assists per game in the series after an explosive 38-point, 9-rebound, 7-assist effort at home in Game 5 on Wednesday. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami's offense has been significantly better than New York's offense for the balance of the playoffs, with the Heat scoring well over 1.16 points per possession in postseason games. With that offensive edge and home-court advantage in Game 6, Miami is in a friendly position, but the Heat also have very strong defensive metrics to lean on against New York. The Heat are allowing only 108.7 points per 100 possessions so far in the series, and Miami is giving up only 44.6% shooting from the field and 30.1% from 3-point range to the Knicks.
New York is also generating only 20.4 assists per game against the Heat, and Miami leads the entire 2023 NBA playoffs in averaging 21.4 points per game off turnovers. The Heat also produced at a top-10 level on defense during the regular season, and Miami was excellent virtually across the board on that end of the floor. That includes top-four metrics in the NBA in free throw prevention, points allowed in the paint, fast break prevention, turnover creation, and defensive rebound rate. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with five players projected to score more than 18 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Knicks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Knicks vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that is on a 71-38 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
