Frost Bank Center plays host to a Western Conference matchup on Friday evening. For the second time in three days, the San Antonio Spurs will host the Los Angeles Lakers. The Spurs have lost 18 straight games, the longest losing streak in the Western Conference, and San Antonio is 3-20 this season. The Lakers are 15-10 and 5-8 on the road, including a win over the Spurs in Wednesday's matchup. LeBron James (calf), Anthony Davis (adductor), and Taurean Prince (knee) are listed as questionable for Los Angeles.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Lakers as 7.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 234.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Spurs odds. Before making any Spurs vs. Lakers picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 97-51 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Spurs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Spurs vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Spurs spread: Lakers -7.5
- Lakers vs. Spurs over/under: 234.5 points
- Lakers vs. Spurs money line: Lakers -310, Spurs +248
- LAL: The Lakers are 5-8 against the spread in road games
- SAS: The Spurs are 5-7 against the spread in home games
- Lakers vs. Spurs picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers have two-way advantages on paper in this matchup, and that showed up during Wednesday's game. Los Angeles held San Antonio to only 1.08 points per possession in that game, forcing 17 turnovers and allowing only 18 free throw attempts. The Lakers also made great strides on offense, converting 54% of field goal attempts and 40% of 3-point attempts while producing 31 assists. For the full season, Los Angeles has top-eight metrics in several offensive categories, including field goal percentage (48.8%), 2-point percentage (56.1%), points in the paint (55.3 per game), and fast break points (15.9 per game).
The Lakers should also benefit from a below-average Spurs defense that yields more than 1.17 points per possession, and the Lakers have the superior defense. Los Angeles is giving up only 1.11 points per possession, a top-eight figure in the NBA. The Lakers lead the league in free throw prevention, and San Antonio's offense is struggling. The Spurs have the worst offensive rating (106.0) in the NBA, and San Antonio is in the bottom five of the league in free throw creation, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and turnover avoidance. See which team to pick here.
Why the Spurs can cover
The Spurs are on a long losing streak, but Victor Wembanyama provides optimism. The rookie big man generated 30 points, 13 rebounds, six blocked shots and three steals in Wednesday's game against the Lakers, and Wembanyama's debut season has been impressive. He is averaging 19.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game, ranking in the top eight of the league in rebounds and in the top three in blocks. Wembanyama is also averaging 20.6 points, 13.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks across the last eight games.
As a team, San Antonio is in the top five of the NBA with 28.7 assists per game, and the Spurs are No. 1 in the league in having only 3.7 shots blocked per contest. San Antonio is also facing a Lakers team that is No. 25 or worse in second-chance points allowed (15.8 per game) and fast break points allowed (15.4 per game) on defense this season. On the other end, San Antonio can benefit from the Lakers struggling on the offensive glass and from beyond the 3-point arc, with Los Angeles averaging only 10.0 second-chance points and 10.5 3-pointers per game. See which team to pick here.
How to make Lakers vs. Spurs picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 238 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Lakers vs. Spurs, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Spurs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 97-51 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
