Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks welcome Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat to town for a nationally televised matchup on Tuesday. The Mavericks are 4-2 overall and 3-0 at home this season, with Miami entering at 5-1 overall and 2-1 away from home. Kristaps Porzingis (back) and Maxi Kleber (back) are ruled out for the Mavs, while Bam Adebayo (knee) is questionable to play for the Heat.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 2.5-point road favorite. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 209.5 in the latest Heat vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model finished up almost $600 on its top-rated picks last season and enters Week 3 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 106-71 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Mavs and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's NBA picks. Here are several NBA odds and trends for Mavericks vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Mavericks spread: Heat -2.5
- Heat vs. Mavericks over-under: 209.5 points
- Heat vs. Mavericks money line: Heat -145, Mavericks +125
- Miami: The Heat are 5-1 against the spread this season
- Dallas: The Mavericks are 2-4 ATS in 2021-22
Why the Heat can cover
Miami has been thoroughly dominant this season, leading the NBA in net rating by out-scoring opponents by 16.7 points per 100 possessions. The Heat also lead the NBA in defensive rating, giving up 95.5 points per 100 possessions, and Miami's resistance is impressive. The Heat have allowed 103 points or fewer in each game this season, with opponents posting a bottom-three mark in shooting efficiency. Miami is grabbing 79.7 percent of available rebounds on the defensive glass, and the Heat lead the NBA in points allowed in the paint, giving up just 39.3 per game.
On offense, Miami is scoring 114.6 points per 100 possessions during a four-game winning streak, and the Heat are grabbing nearly 35 percent of their own missed shots in that sample size. Even away from home, Miami is dangerous, and the Heat have the defensive firepower to slow Doncic.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is off to a bit of a slow start, but the Mavs have been an upper-echelon offensive team for multiple seasons. Doncic is one of the best offensive creators in the NBA, and he is averaging 22.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game despite an early shooting slump. Dallas takes care of the ball well, committing only 12.8 turnovers per game this season, and the Mavericks can take advantage of Miami's weaknesses in free-throw prevention (21 attempts allowed per game) and blocked shots (2.2 per game).
Defensively, Dallas is above-average in 2-point efficiency allowed (51.1 percent), and the Mavericks rank in the top seven in free throw attempts allowed (17.7 per game) and fast-break points allowed (10.0 per game) this season. Miami is also facing ball security issues, committing a turnover on 15.5 percent of offensive possessions this season.
How to make Heat vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 208 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavs vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
