The Phoenix Suns have had the Dallas Mavericks' number, and they hope to continue that success when they pay a second consecutive visit to American Airlines Arena on Monday night. The teams squared off Saturday night, and the Suns (10-8) rallied from a 15-point deficit for a 11-105 victory. It was the fifth straight loss of the season for Dallas (8-12) and also its fifth in a row against Phoenix. Dallas forward Luka Doncic has scored 60 points in the two meetings, but he hasn't gotten much help against a Phoenix team that allows just 107.5 points per game.
Tip-off from Dallas is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite in William Hill Sportsbook's latest Suns vs. Mavericks odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 217.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Suns picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 69-40 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Suns. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Suns vs. Mavs:
- Suns vs. Mavericks: Dallas -2.5
- Suns vs. Mavericks over-under: 217.5
- Suns vs. Mavericks money line: Phoenix +125, Dallas -145
- PHX: F Jae Crowder has scored at least 14 points in four straight games.
- DAL: G Luka Doncic has scored at least 25 points in 15 of the 18 games.
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix is 21-7 against the spread in the last 28 meetings between the teams, and the Suns rallied Saturday despite missing their top scorer. Devin Booker (22.9 points) is questionable for Monday with a hamstring injury, but Chris Paul can pick up the slack if he isn't ready. The 10-time All-Star scored 16 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter Saturday night, and he also had 12 assists and four steals. He ranks third in the NBA with 8.7 assists per game and averages 15.6 points.
The Suns are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games overall, and they have been playing strong defense. They rank fifth in scoring, and Mikal Bridges is an excellent perimeter defender who should be able to frustrate Doncic. Deandre Ayton, the top overall pick in the 2018 draft, always has something to prove when he's on the floor against Doncic, who was taken third. Ayton ranks fourth in the league in rebounds (12.6) and blocks more than a shot a game.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is 26-19-1 against the spread following a loss since 2019, and Doncic has proven he can carry the team. He scored 18 of his 29 points in the third Saturday night, and the Mavs led by 15 with six minutes left in the quarter. The forward is seventh in the league in scoring at 27.4 points per game and ranks second in assists (9.4). He also leads the team in rebounding with 9.4 per contest, 8.2 coming on the defensive end, and posts a steal a game.
Forward Kristaps Porzingis has been slow to bounce back from offseason knee surgery, but he is still averaging 18.6 points and 1.6 blocks. He sat out Saturday's game in the second game of a back-to-back, but he is expected to play Monday. Willie Cauley-Stein scored 14 in his absence. Dallas will need a big game from Tim Hardaway Jr., the team's main 3-point shooter. He hits at a 38.8-percent clip, while Doncic (29.4) and Porzingis (28.6) also can get hot.
How to make Suns vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with with teams projected to combine for 222 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Suns vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Suns vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
