SportsLine Projection: How Gordon Hayward decision affects Jazz, Celtics, Heat

The Jazz have the most to lose from missing out on Hayward

By Colin Ward-Henninger

Jul 4, 2017 at 7:27 pm ET • 1 min read

What was expected to be a fairly straightforward decision has become extremely complicated, as Gordon Hayward had reportedly decided on the Celtics but has now opened things back up.

While we await the final decision, SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh crunched the numbers to see which teams would benefit the most from Hayward's arrival and which will suffer the most if he signs elsewhere.

Utah Jazz

The data backs up common sense in this instance: The Jazz really need Hayward back. As the team's leading scorer last season at 21.9 points per game, Hayward was an integral part of the Utah offense. He also spaced the floor by knocking down 40 percent of his 3-pointers. According to Oh's data, if they lost Hayward the Jazz would go from a projected 46.2 wins to 38.9, and would drop from the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference to missing the playoffs entirely.

UTAH JAZZ	WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFFS	CONFERENCE SEED
w/ Gordon Hayward	46.2	56.30%	84.30%	5
w/o Hayward	38.9	47.40%	24.10%	10
Plus/Minus Difference	-7.3	-8.80%	-60.20%	-5

Boston Celtics

The Celtics, who were originally reported as Hayward's choice before the confusion began, would see an improvement, although not very dramatic. Should they acquire Hayward, Boston will go from a projection of 52.1 wins to 54.5, and would see its chances to win the NBA title increase by 0.6 percent.

BOSTON CELTICS	WINS	WIN%	PLAYOFFS	CONFERENCE SEED	CHAMPIONSHIP
Baseline	52.1	63.50%	99.80%	2	3.90%
w/ Hayward	54.5	66.50%	99.90%	2	4.50%
Plus/Minus Difference	2.4	2.90%	0.10%	--	0.60%

Miami Heat

While the Heat have reportedly been eliminated from contention, let's take a look at what they might be missing out on. According to the projections, Hayward would have added 5.7 wins and taken Miami from the No. 8 seed to the No. 5 seed in the East. The Heat's playoff chances would have gone from just around 50 percent to 85.5 percent.