The Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks meet on Thursday afternoon in an intriguing Western Conference tilt. While the Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed, the Suns enter Thursday's game with a great deal of pressure, needing to pick up a win to stay in contention for the NBA's inaugural play-in tournament for the final playoff spot. For Dallas, Kristaps Porzingis (heel) and Seth Curry (leg) are questionable to play, with Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) and Maxi Kleber (knee) listed as probable and Courtney Lee (calf) ruled out. On the Phoenix side, Cameron Johnson (patella) is probable and Kelly Oubre (knee) is doubtful.
Tip-off is at 4 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists Phoenix as the 8.5-point favorite. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is 235 in the latest Suns vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Suns picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Suns. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Suns vs. Mavericks:
- Suns vs. Mavericks spread: Suns -8.5
- Suns vs. Mavericks over-under: 235 points
- Suns vs. Mavericks money line: Suns -380, Mavericks +310
- PHX: The Suns are 7-0 against the spread during the NBA's restart
- DAL: The Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Suns can cover
The Suns are playing at a high level and that is evident in their statistical trends during the NBA's restart. In addition to being the only undefeated team in the bubble, Phoenix owns top-five marks in both offensive and defensive efficiency, leading to the league's best net rating in Orlando.
For the full season, Phoenix also has defined strengths offensively, including a top-five mark in free-throw rate. From there, the Suns are merely league average in avoiding turnovers offensively but, against a Mavericks team that ranks last in the NBA in forcing turnovers, that is a potential advantage to exploit. From there, Dallas has nothing to play for in terms of seeding, while Phoenix should be properly motivated in a must-win scenario.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Though the Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed in the West, Dallas still has a high-powered offense and Luka Doncic is expected to play. The second-year star is averaging 29.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game this season, and Doncic is the centerpiece of the NBA's best offense.
Dallas leads the league in points scored per possession, and the Mavericks also rank in the top four of the NBA in effective field-goal percentage and turnover rate. Dallas is also above average in offensive rebounding and free-throw creation, putting pressure on the Suns, even with Phoenix holding the motivational advantage.
How to make Suns vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Doncic and Aron Baynes both projected to fall short of their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Suns vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Suns spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
