The Memphis Grizzlies host the Golden State Warriors in a prime time showdown on Thursday. Memphis is 38-26 overall this season, including a sparkling 26-5 mark at FedExForum. Golden State is 34-32 overall, including five wins in the last seven games, and the Warriors are 2-0 against the Grizzlies this season. Ja Morant (not with team), Steven Adams (knee), and Brandon Clarke (Achilles) are out for Memphis. Andrew Wiggins (personal) and Gary Payton II (adductor) are out for Golden State.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 2.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 235 in the latest Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds. Before making any Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 61-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,700. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Grizzlies and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Grizzlies vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies spread: Warriors -2.5
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies over/under: 235 points
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies money line: Warriors -140, Grizzlies +118
- GSW: The Warriors are 8-23 against the spread in road games
- MEM: The Grizzlies are 19-11-1 against the spread in home games
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State has clear and decisive strengths on offense. The Warriors are scoring more than 1.14 points per possession, and Golden State leads the league with 29.7 assists per game and a 69.2% assist percentage. Memphis is in the bottom five of the league in assists allowed (26.2 per game), with Golden State making more 3-pointers (16.5 per game) than any club in the NBA. The Warriors are shooting 38.3% from 3-point range, No. 4 in the league, and Golden State is shooting 56.1% inside the arc.
Golden State also takes advantage of its free throw attempts, converting at nearly an 80% clip, and the Warriors are also strong in key areas on defense. Golden State is in the top 10 in second-chance points allowed (12.7 per game) and 2-point percentage allowed (54.0%), with opponents shooting only 47.0% overall against the Warriors. Memphis has the worst free throw accuracy (72.5%) in the NBA, and the Grizzlies are in the bottom third of the league in shooting efficiency.
Why the Grizzlies can cover
Memphis puts constant pressure on opponents as it leads the NBA in points in the paint (58.8 per game), with top-six metrics in fast break points (17.6 per game), offensive rebound rate (30.9%), and second-chance points (15.4 per game). Memphis also generates nearly 25 free throw attempts per game, and Golden State is No. 28 in free throw attempts allowed per game. The Grizzlies are also excellent at home, out-scoring opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions, and the Warriors are out-scored by 6.6 points per 100 possessions on the road.
Memphis can also fall back on an elite defense, with the Grizzlies giving up only 109.7 points per 100 possessions. That places the Grizzlies in the top three of the NBA, and Memphis is in the top six of the league in field goal percentage allowed (44.9%), 2-point percentage allowed (51.2%), points allowed in the paint (47.3 per game) and turnovers created (15.4 per game). Additionally, the Grizzlies are very active defensively, ranking second in blocked shots (6.0 per game) and third in steals (8.4 per game).
How to make Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, with seven different players projected to score at least 16 points in the simulations. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
