NFL projections about the college football quarterback prospects have been all over the place this year. Early in the season, when competition level was diminished, there was conversation that five or six signal-callers could be taken in the first round. As the season has progressed, those expectations have been tempered a bit, but there is still a high level of confidence in the overall depth at the position.
Here is a look at five top quarterback prospects and grading them relative to expectations:
Caleb Williams, USC: B+
Stat line: 166 of 237 passes completed (70.0%), 2,277 yards, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions; 61 carries, 143 yards, 7 touchdowns
CBSSports.com overall rank: No. 1
There has been a lot of criticism toward Williams lately. While he has not played up to his usual standard, the bar has been so high that his critics took the first opportunity to pretend he is the most overhyped quarterback in college football history. The reality is that USC has allowed 38.4 points per game over the last five. The margins have been very thin for Williams and the offense. The Trojans are riding a two-game losing streak and it could have easily been three in a row had they dropped the triple-overtime thriller to Arizona. Williams had a throw in that game that should have been intercepted but he got away with it.
In the Notre Dame game, it was the first time where the quarterback looked uncomfortable in the pocket. He was looking to bail early, throwing off-platform unnecessarily, brought his eyes down and simply did not notice zone coverage help in the area. One defensive back got him with a sail technique.
It does not change the fact that the Washington D.C. native offers a skill set so that no other quarterback prospect in this class can match. He does a good job of manipulating the pocket and evading the rush, which allows him to extend plays. He has great foot speed and mobility to get chunk yardage on the ground when it is given to him. It has not soured me on his future prospects and he is still the top quarterback prospect eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Drake Maye, North Carolina: B-
Stat line: 170 of 260 passes completed (65.4%), 2,249 yards, 14 touchdowns, 5 interceptions; 68 carries, 201 yards, 5 touchdowns
CBSSports.com overall rank: No. 5
Maye has all of the physical traits that NFL franchises look for in a potential first-round pick. He has a big arm, big frame and enough mobility to extend plays or get yardage with his feet when the play breaks down. Maye ranks No. 36 in completion percentage (65.4) and No. 96 in yards after catch per completion (4.99). The North Carolina native makes big-time throws but struggles to find that down in, down out consistency. On one play, he can drive a ball into the second window and on the next play throw it behind his intended receiver.
On this particular play, the play has broken down and he has stepped up in the pocket after evading pressure, but his arm strength provides him with more opportunities than most. It was only at the last second that his eyes diverted to the opposite hash and he rotated his hips to find his intended receiver.
One of my remarks on Maye coming into the season was his inclination to throw prayer balls or jump-ball passes where he has to cross his fingers and hope it is a player in Carolina Blue coming down with it. Former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman argued on the 'With the First Pick podcast' that it was a quarterback giving his receiver a chance to make a play down the field. The personnel on last year's Tar Heels roster was not filled with jump-ball savants in my eyes. I say all that to say this: Maye may have that player now in Kent State transfer Tez Walker, who made his debut against Syracuse after a lengthy eligibility battle with the NCAA. In three games together, Walker has 23 receptions for 321 yards and four touchdowns.
It boils down to this: The sophomore passer has as much talent as any other in the class but he has yet to reach that final form. The 21-year-old will go early in the 2024 NFL Draft if he declares because teams are going to gamble on him reaching that potential in their organization, similar to the Chargers and Justin Herbert. Maye has shown more with the Tar Heels than Herbert was able to in that Oregon offensive structure, however.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: B+
Stat line: 132 of 169 passes completed (78.1%), 1,799 yards, 18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions; 33 carries, 168 yards, 3 touchdowns
CBSSports.com overall rank: No. 19
An NFL quarterback needs to be able to make NFL throws; that is the baseline for whether a college quarterback is capable of playing at the next level. McCarthy checks that box. There are moments when he is throwing into really tight windows that will not be open in the NFL, but teams want to see a player with that level of confidence in himself. Every player faces an adjustment from the college game to the professional ranks and McCarthy will be no different. I could stand fewer designed runs and under-handed flip passes under duress just because those hits will take a toll at the next level and those types of passes turn out poorly more often than not.
Outside of the Bowling Green game, which is a tough taste to get out of my mouth, McCarthy has been sensational for the No. 2 Wolverines. In the first two games against East Carolina and UNLV, the Illinois native was operating as if he had the answers to the test. The ball rarely touched the ground and he was carving up zone coverage with ease. McCarthy has looked more like pre-Bowling Green in conference play. He is completing 78.1% of his passes, which is the second-highest rate in college football despite averaging 10.4 air yards per target, which is No. 24 in college football, according to TruMedia.
He is the third-ranked quarterback prospect for me personally.
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: B-
Stat line: 219 of 303 passes completed (72.3%), 2,420 yards, 21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions; 73 carries, -23 yards, 3 touchdowns
CBSSports.com overall rank: No. 18
Colorado has not taken the easy way out in Coach Prime's first season. The Buffaloes have played Power 5 competition in six of their seven games. There can not be many other programs able to say as much. In the first three games, which were all wins, he completed 78.7% of his passes. Over the past four games, he has completed 67.1% of his passes. The Jackson State transfer has been a consummate leader and he was surgical in the way that he attacked the opposition during the win streak.
Sanders is being sacked on 9.8% of drop backs this season, which is the highest of any prospect on this list. Williams is the second highest at 8.1% and Michael Penix Jr. is the lowest. He is holding onto the ball longer as a result of being blitzed on just 20.3% of dropbacks. Teams are sitting back in coverage against him.
There has been a lot of buzz suggesting that the junior will return for another season in Boulder.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington: A-
Stat line: 182 of 257 passes completed (70.8%), 2,576 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions; 11 carries, 3 yards
CBSSports.com overall rank: No. 65
Penix's time with the Huskies has been important. Torn ACLs ended the Indiana transfer's seasons in 2018 and 2020. He has yet to miss a game since arriving in Washington. Furthermore, his 1.5% sack rate is the third lowest in college football -- behind Western Kentucky's Austin Reed and Ohio's Kurtis Rourke -- according to TruMedia. The Florida native is a pocket passer first and does not often look to run. He is taking care of his body and making good decisions with the football. There is a quality about him where it looks as though he is going to have the ball stripped from him during his release and he still finds a way to power through and deliver a pass.
Blessed with a trio of pass-catchers as talented as Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan, Penix will give his teammates a chance to make plays down the field but his ball placement is sensational. He either throws it away or puts it in a position where only the intended receiver can break it up or come down with it. Knowing when to throw it away is an indicator of a mature, experienced quarterback. Penix has taken snaps back to the 2018 season. He has taken 2,386 offensive snaps in his career.
Oregon-Washington has been one of the games of the year and it was Penix doing enough late to push the now-No. 7 Huskies over the edge. The left-hander was a bit off on his downfield accuracy early but responded in a big way. He is a gamer and professional in the sense that he can be trusted to learn and execute any offense at a high level.
