The New York Jets will try to tighten up the AFC East when they host the Miami Dolphins in the first Black Friday NFL game in Week 12. The Jets (4-6) face Miami again on Dec. 17, but New York has lost three in a row. That's why Tim Boyle will be starting at quarterback in place of Zach Wilson in the NFL Black Friday matchup. The Dolphins (7-3) control the AFC East after beating the Las Vegas Raiders, 20-13, coming off their bye week. They have won five of the past six meetings.
Kickoff at New York's MetLife Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET. The latest Dolphins vs. Jets odds list the Dolphins as 9.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 40.5. Before you make any Jets vs. Dolphins Black Friday NFL picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Dolphins vs. Jets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Jets spread: Miami -9.5
- Dolphins vs. Jets over/under: 40.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Jets money line: Miami -484, New York +363
- MIA: Dolphins are 6-7-1 ATS on the road under coach Mike McDaniel (since 2022)
- NYJ: Jets are 10-12 ATS as the home team under Robert Salah (since 2021)
- Dolphins vs. Jets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Dolphins can cover
Miami has the league's best offense, scoring 30.5 points per game and producing 291 passing yards per contest. The Dolphins are second in rushing, averaging 143 yards. Receiver Tyreek Hill has been nearly unstoppable, piling up 1,222 yards in the first 10 games, most in that time frame in the Super Bowl era. He's a big reason Tua Tagovailoa is third in the NFL in passing yards (2,934), and Jaylen Waddle has 577 yards and averages 13.1 per catch.
If the Jets rely on the run game, Miami should be ready, as the defense allows 3.8 yards per carry, seventh in the NFL. The Dolphins had three interceptions against the Raiders last week and are tied for ninth in the league with 31 sacks, led by Bradley Chubb with six. Miami's defense allows just under 320 yards per game, 12th in the league, and the Jets have the NFL's third-worst offense. They average just 270 yards and 15 points per game, both 30th in the NFL. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Jets can cover
New York can play defense and has beaten both Buffalo and Philadelphia at MetLife Stadium. They are the only team to knock off the Eagles, picking off three passes in the 20-14 victory in Week 6. The Jets have 10 interceptions, four from safety Jordan Whitehead, and Tagovailoa has thrown eight. New York allows 4.9 yards per play (fourth in NFL), ranks fifth in the league against the pass (178.5 yards per game) and yields 20.4 points per contest (12th in NFL).
Boyle won't light up the scoreboard, but the Jets are almost sure to lean on the running game. They average 4.6 yards per carry, fourth-best in the league, but are 30th in attempts. Running back Breece Hall has big-play ability - he had an 83-yard run against the Bills - and has amassed 840 total yards. Boyle also has solid weapons in the passing game, with receiver Garrett Wilson (651 yards) and tight end Tyler Conklin (381) capable of helping him succeed. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Dolphins vs. Jets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting 41 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins the NFL Black Friday Dolphins vs. Jets matchup, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
