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All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Vikings at Seahawks, 10 p.m. | TV: NFL Network
- The Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-110)
- Key trend: This newsletter is undefeated in preseason NFL bets in 2023.
Did you think we were going to stop betting on NFL preseason games? Well, we might eventually, but after winning our Browns +2 play last week in the Hall of Fame Game, it'd be irresponsible to step away now. Not while we're hot. You can't abandon an undefeated record like the one we have.
Tonight, we're returning to the same philosophy that brought us a win last week. Preseason NFL games are largely a crap shoot and cannot be predicted, so taking points when you can get them is generally the advisable option. It becomes even more enticing when you get more than a field goal like we are tonight.
You have to remember: While the starters decide regular-season games, early preseason games are more often decided by third- and fourth-stringers who won't be on the roster when the real games start. We saw this play out last week. The Jets jumped out to an early lead, and then the reserves came in for the second half and the Browns "depth" won out.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a similar game tonight. Seattle is at home, and it'll be the debut of first-round picks Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon. The energy will definitely be in Seattle's favor before everybody remembers it's a preseason game, and things die down. And that's when the Vikings will strike! Maybe. Hopefully. I don't know. Remember, it's a preseason game. We shouldn't take any of it seriously.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Josh Nagel is 22-8 ATS in his last 30 plays involving the Seahawks, and he's siding with us tonight, too.
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💰The Picks
⚾ MLB
Nationals at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. | Watch: MLB.tv
The Pick: Phillies (-250) -- Don't look now, but the Phillies have begun to play like the team most anticipated they would be before the season began. After starting the season 25-30, the Phillies have gone 38-22 since the beginning of June and enter tonight's contest as winners of seven of their last 10. They've been obliterating the ball in that time, scoring at least four runs in 11 of 12 games while averaging 5.3 runs in that span.
Tonight, they send Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola's been somewhat unlucky this season with a 4.58 ERA, while other metrics suggest it should be lower. The Phillies ranking 27th in defensive runs saved has played a role in that. Still, things are heading in the right direction, and the Nationals have been trounced by NL East division rivals all year. They're 11-21 in the division, and while they're 5-6 against the Phillies, they've been outscored 65-33 in the first 11 games.
⚽ Premier League
Burnley vs. Manchester City -- Friday, 3 p.m. | TV: USA Network
The Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (-120) -- The Premier League season kicks off Friday afternoon, and considering how much success we had betting on the league last year, it seems fitting that we take a side on the first match. Now, this comes with the caveat that we don't have as clear a picture of who teams are at this point, particularly when one of the teams playing is newly promoted. Still, we do know Manchester City. It's the team that's won three straight Premier League titles (and five of the last six) along with the Champions League last season.
Burnley is managed by former City captain Vincent Kompany, who has tried to mold Burnley in City's image as far as playing style. That's all well and good in the lower league when there isn't nearly as wide a gap in talent on the rosters. There's a massive gap between the talent City will roll out there and what Burnley has on its roster. Yes, newly-promoted teams tend to surprise in their first matches back, but those surprises rarely come against powerhouses like the one Burnley will run into tomorrow.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: If you're looking for another MLB play tonight, SportsLine's Mike Barner is up 14.57 units on his last 74 MLB moneyline plays, and he's posted a play in tonight's game between the Rays and Cardinals.
