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USATSI

So I'm supposed to be giving you some picks for Week 6 right now, but before that can happen, I need to make sure that the NFL hasn't banned me from making picks after the what happened in Week 5. 

I had my worst week of the season and it wasn't close. I went 6-8 with my picks. I choked harder than the Cowboys, which is saying a lot, considering they lost 42-10. Over the past 24 hours, I've completely re-evaluated my process for picking games. I've fired three of my friends (they were distractions) and I'm no longer going to automatically pick every cat team to win every week. That's just not working as well as I thought it would. Thanks for nothing, Panthers. Also, I will no longer be eating waffles prior to making my picks, because picks and waffles just don't mix. 

So will any of this make things better for me iin Week 6?

Let's get to the picks and find out. 

Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. If you don't click over, I won't be offended. However, I will be offended if you don't sign up for CBSSports.com's NFL newsletter, which I'm in charge of writing. 

If you do sign up, it's like an early Christmas present for both of us: I get more sign-ups and you get an email from me every weekday, which means it's really more like five presents and everyone loves getting five presents in October. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. I promise that takes you to a newsletter and I'm not actually trying to get you to sign up for a pyramid scheme. 

Alright, let's get to the picks. 

NFL Week 6 picks

San Francisco (5-0) at Cleveland (2-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

If you love drama, then you immediately need to become a Browns fan, because there is no team in the NFL that does drama quite like the Cleveland Browns. The drama right now revolves around Deshaun Watson, who decided not to play in a Week 4 loss to the Ravens even though he was medically cleared to be on the field. 

When you give someone a fully guaranteed contract worth $230 million, I'm guessing you expect them to play when they're medically cleared to play. However, I can't say that for sure, because I've never given someone a $230 million contract. 

The only good news in all of this for the Browns is that they did get a bye in Week 5, which means Watson's shoulder injury got an extra week to heal, which means he'll surely be able to practice this week and play on Sunday.... or maybe not. 

Just as a refresher, Watson was medically cleared to play in Week 4 but he still wasn't able to suit up for practice as we head into Week 6. I'm telling you, the drama never ends in Cleveland. 

The problem for the Browns is that they have two options this week and neither option is good: They can throw Watson out there with an injured shoulder against a 49ers defense that will likely eat him alive or they can start rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against a 49ers defense that will likely eat him alive. They could also roll with PJ Walker, but that doesn't change my point: Somebody is going to get eaten alive in this game and it's most likely going to be whoever is under center for the Browns. 

Although the Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL, I'm not sure that's going to be enough to keep them in the game against the 49ers, who have scored at least 30 points in every game they've played this season. Also, Kyle Shanahan spent one season in Cleveland and I'm pretty sure he hated it, so I feel like he's going to be pretty hellbent on beating the Browns this week. 

The pick: 49ers 31-20 over Browns

Seattle (3-1) at Cincinnati (2-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

After spending three straight hours staring at this week's NFL schedule, I think I've convinced myself that this is my favorite game taking place in Week 6. I'm also oddly fascinated by Colts-Jaguars and I'm even a little curious about 49ers-Browns, but if you locked me in the trunk of a car -- I'm not sure why you would, but let's say you did -- and I had a phone that could stream just one game, then I'd stream this game. 

For the Bengals, Joe Burrow is finally starting to look like Joe Burrow, which is good news for him, but bad news for the Seahawks. After throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals, Burrow now gets to face a Seahawks defense that is surrendering 280 passing yards per game, which is the third-worst number in the NFL. Burrow might throw for 500 yards. 

The fact that Burrow's calf is looking better is a huge advantage for the Bengals here, because it means he can avoid the pass-rush and he can also beat the blitz, which is something he couldn't really do during the first four weeks of the season.

Although the Seahawks have struggled against the pass, they've actually done a solid job of rushing the passer. They're averaging four sacks per game this season, which is tied for the second-best number in the NFL. If this game had been played two weeks ago, the Seahawks probably would have sacked Burrow 19 times, but with Burrow showing improved mobility, he should be able to do a much-better job avoiding the pass-rush. 

Although the Bengals will likely be able to throw the ball, the Seahawks offense could also find some success, especially on the ground. Through five games, the Bengals are giving up 154 rushing yards per game, which is the SECOND-WORST number in the NFL. The Seahawks might rush for as many yards as Burrow throws for. 

The Seahawks will be coming into this game off a bye, which is usually an advantage for most teams, but not them. The Seahawks are 0-3 coming off their bye since 2020, so I'm going to say the bye week curse continues for Seattle. 

The pick: Bengals 30-27 over Seahawks

New England (1-4) at Las Vegas (2-3)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I don't want to say that the Patriots have a problem, but I'm starting to think that the Patriots have a problem. Their quarterback is struggling, their offensive line is bad, their receivers are below average and their kicker can't make any kicks. Going into the season, it felt like their only chance of being good was if they had a dominating defense, but that has about a zero percent chance of happening now that they've lost two of their best defensive players to injury (Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez). 

When you are completely devoid of talent, that's usually when you start to look to fire your general manager, but the Patriots can't exactly do that because Bill Belichick is essentially their general manager. Belichick the general manager has built a team that's so bad that not even Belichick the coach can bail him out. 

I didn't think it was possible for Belichick to be on the hot seat, but I also didn't think it was possible to microwave an entire Thanksgiving turkey and I did that once in college, so maybe it is possible for Belichick's seat to be warming up. 

Over the past two weeks, Belichick has suffered the two worst losses of his career (38-3 to the Cowboys, 34-0 to the Saints) and if that's capped off by a loss to the Raiders, I have to think Robert Kraft will start thinking seriously about moving on (For the record, I don't think Kraft would fire Belichick during the season, but I could see them sitting down together at the end of the year and deciding that a breakup would be mutually beneficial for both sides). 

The Raiders are coached by a former Patriots assistant (Josh McDaniels), they're led by a former Patriots QB (Jimmy Garoppolo) and half the roster played for New England at some point. Also, TOM BRADY IS IN THE PROCESS OF PURCHASING A MINORITY STAKE IN THE RAIDERS. The beginning of the end for Belichick as a coach came when he decided to move on from Brady at QB and a loss to the team that Brady now partially owns would definitely bring everything full circle.

Also, there need to be a camera on Robert Kraft at all times in this game, because I have to think that Belichick losing to a team of Patriots cast-offs won't go over well with the Patriots owner. 

The pick: Raiders 19-16 over Patriots

I only make straight-up and against-the-spread picks, but the Sportsline Projection Model closely examines the totals for each game in Week 6. Check it out to see which side to bet.

Dallas (3-2) at L.A. Chargers (2-2)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)

I've seen Revenge of the Sith, Revenge of the Nerds and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, so I know a revenge game when I see one and I feel like we have a revenge game here with Kellen Moore. The Chargers offensive coordinator used to be the Cowboys offensive coordinator, but then the two sides mutually agreed to part ways at the end of last season, even though we all know there's no such things as "mutually" parting ways. 

With Moore out, Mike McCarthy decided to take over play-calling duties for Dallas and if you want to know how things are going so far, just go re-watch the Cowboys 42-10 loss to the 49ers. I'm guessing Moore will be re-watching that game a few times, just to see how the 49ers offense attacked the Cowboys defense. 

The fact that the Chargers have Moore should be a huge advantage. He knows what McCarthy likes to do on offense, so he can share that information with the Chargers defense. Also, he knows what Dan Quinn likes to do on defense, so he should have some success attacking it with Justin Herbert.  

If the Cowboys have learned one thing over the past five weeks, I'm guessing that it's the fact that Kellen Moore wasn't the problem in Dallas. Right now, it seems like the problem is either Mike McCarthy's play-calling or Dak Precott's execution of those plays. I'll let you decided which one it is. OK, did you decide? Because whatever you picked is going to be the thing that lets the Cowboys down on Monday.

The pick: Chargers 30-27 over Cowboys

London special

Baltimore (3-2) vs. Tennessee (2-3) in London

9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)

We're six weeks into the season and I still have yet to pick a Titans game correctly. I rambled about this last week, but I have to do it again as punishment for missing ANOTHER game.

Through five weeks, I'm 0-5 picking their games and every week I get more irritated by the fact that I whiff on them every week. I've picked them to win three times this season and they lost all three times. I've picked them to lose twice this season and they won both of those games. At this point, If I predicted that they'd have Taco Bell for breakfast, they'd go to a place that doesn't have tacos or bells. 

I've accepted the fact that I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to picking Titans games. No matter what I predict, it ends up being wrong. If I predicted the Titans to lose this game by 14 this week, they would win by 41.

That being said, I think I finally have a chance to end the drought this week: I'm 0-5 picking Titans' games that are played in America, but this game is NOT being played in America. It's being played in London and I visited that city once, so there's no way I'm getting this pick wrong. 

The thing about the Titans is that their biggest defensive weakness is the secondary, which is one weakness Baltimore might not be able to take advantage of based on what I've seen from their receivers this season. 

That is a video of Baltimore's receivers dropping every pass that was thrown to them in Week 5. On the other hand, it's highly unlikely that the Ravens receivers drop seven passes for a second straight week, so maybe I should just go ahead and assume that they're going to go off this week. Another problem for the Titans is that the Ravens are coming into this game with the second-best defense in the NFL. They've given up the second-fewest points and second-fewest yards through five weeks. 

So who am I taking here? 

Since the opposite of what I predict always seems to happen when the Titans play, I've decided to take that into account and I'm going to predict the opposite of what I think is going to happen. My gut originally told me to take the Ravens, because they're a slightly better team that would have steamrolled the Steelers in Week 5 if their receivers didn't drop every pass that was thrown to them, but I'm ignoring my gut and going with the Titans.

The pick: Titans 19-16 over Ravens. 

NFL Week 6 picks: All the rest

Chiefs 27-17 over Broncos
Commanders 22-19 over Falcons
Bears 27-24 over Vikings
Dolphins 34-16 over Panthers
Jaguars 24-17 over Colts
Saints 20-16 over Texans
Rams 30-23 over Cardinals
Eagles 27-17 over Jets
Lions 20-17 over Buccaneers
Bills 30-20 over Giants

BYES: Packers, Steelers

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Jets would help Nathaniel Hackett get revenge on the Broncos and guess what happened? The Jets helped Nathaniel Hackett get revenge on the Broncos. This pick was the easiest one to make last week and that's mostly because of how easy it is to get revenge on the Broncos. I mean, literally everyone who has ever tried to get revenge on the Broncos has succeeded this season. 

Let's take a look at the list: 

The main takeaway here is that if the Broncos ever fire you, the good news is that there's an 85% chance that you'll coach against them one day down the road and beat them. 

Worst pick: There are two undefeated teams in the NFL, and for some reason, I thought it would be smart to pick against BOTH of them in Week 5, and let me just tell you, that did not go well. When I have a grandma roasting me on Twitter for my picks, I know it's been a bad week. 

If my picks are terrible again this week, I might have to start letting Beth's 12-year-old grandson make my picks 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got five full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I'm 5-0 picking this year (Straight up): Jets, Giants, Panthers, Packers
Teams I'm 4-1 picking this year (Straight up): Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, Buccaneers (3-1)

Teams I'm 0-5 or 1-4 picking this year (Straight up): Titans (0-5), Texans (1-4). 

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 5: 6-8
SU overall: 49-29 (1-9 picking the Titans and Texans, 48-20 picking everyone else)

Against the spread in Week 5: 6-7-1
ATS overall: 40-35-2

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably trying to book a flight to London so he can watch the Titans play in-person knowing that he'll never return to America because he'll be too embarrassed to show his face if he gets another one of their picks wrong.