Playoff Picture: Scenarios, notes and anecdotes for Week 14

UPDATE after Thursday night game and added elimination scenrios:

Arizona's win over Minnesota on TNF gave the Cardinals a playoff spot and means they can capture the NFC West title with a Seattle loss or tie. The Vikings loss also trimmed the Panthers chance to get a 1st Round Bye with either a Win or Tie OR a Packers loss or tie.

NFC Elimination Scenarios:

CHI cannot be eliminated from the playoffs after MIN loss THursday, but can be eliminated from division title contention with:
1) CHI loss/tie
2) GB win/tie

DET eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) DET loss + SEA win/tie
2) DET tie + SEA win

NO eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) NO loss
2) NO tie + SEA win/tie

SEA can be eliminated from division title with:
1) SEA loss/tie

STL eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) STL loss + SEA win/tie 2) STL tie + SEA win

SF eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) SF loss
2) SF tie + SEA win/tie

AFC Elimination Scenarios:

TEN eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) TEN loss/tie
2) IND win
3) HOU win
4) IND tie + HOU tie

JAC eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) JAC loss + NYJ win/tie
2) JAC loss + BUF win/tie
3) JAC loss + HOU win
4) JAC loss + PIT win/tie
5) JAC tie + numerous scenarios

SD eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) SD loss/tie
2) PIT win/tie
3) OAK win
4) SD loses SOV tiebreaker to KC

BAL eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) BAL loss + KC win/tie
2) BAL loss + PIT win/tie
3) BAL loss + OAK win
4) BAL tie + numerous scenarios

MIA eliminated from the playoffs with:
1) MIA loss + NYJ win + KC win
2) MIA loss + NYJ tie + KC win + BUF win

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Week 13 of the 2015 NFL season provided quite the rollercoaster ride, starting with an unlikely Hail Mary win for the Packers over the Lions on Thursday and ending with an improbable finish on Monday Night Football that gave the Cowboys a 19-16 win over the Redskins. Let's hope there's more craziness and wild endings in store during the final four weeks ahead.

This past week also saw the Carolina Panthers clinch the NFC South division title due to the Falcons’ loss to Tampa Bay right before the Panthers took the field in New Orleans. We also saw Cleveland eliminated from playoff contention. Thirty-one teams are still alive a playoff spot, the most with four weeks to play in NFL history. The previous high was 30 of 32 teams in 2006 and 2007, and also in 1995, when all 30 teams were alive with four weeks to play.

As I noted last week, this preponderance of teams in Super Bowl contention is due to a great many teams in the middle of the pack in each league. In the AFC, the fourth-best team is 7-5 and there are 10 teams between 4-8 and 7-5. On the NFC side it's even more crowded, with 11 teams between 4-8 and 6-6. It should be an interesting final four weeks for playoff scenarios.

As for Week 14, we have five teams that can clinch various playoff spots, with the Panthers already in as division champion and at least a No. 3 playoff seed.

Let's start with the NFC and the undefeated Panthers. Sitting at 12-0 and holding a two-game lead over the Cardinals in the NFC, Carolina, with two games left against the struggling Falcons, one trip to the 5-7 Giants and a Week 17 tilt hosting the Buccaneers, is in great position to secure home-field advantage and a No. 1 seed this year. For Week 14, the Panthers can secure a first-round bye and at least the No. 2 seed with a win or tie against Atlanta OR a Vikings loss or tie and a Packers loss or tie. If the Panthers win only two of their final four games and get to 14-2, Arizona would have to win out against a tough schedule (MIN, @PHI, GB, SEA) to deny Carolina the No. 1 seed.

The undefeated Panthers are in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed. (USATSI)

Speaking of the Cardinals, they have a three-game lead over the Seahawks (10-2 vs. 7-5) and in effect have a magic number of 2 to win the division (any combination of Cardinals wins and Seahawks losses that totals 2). This week, Arizona can clinch the NFC West title with a win over Minnesota and a Seattle loss or tie at Baltimore OR a tie and a Seattle loss. If the Cards don't win the division this week, they can secure a playoff spot with a win or tie OR both Tampa Bay and Atlanta have a loss or tie OR, in the case of an Atlanta win, with a Tampa Bay loss or tie plus a Green Bay win or tie.

The Green Bay win/tie scenario probably seems odd since the Packers are trying to reel in the Cardinals, but it has to do with avoiding a three-way wild-card tie at 10-6 between Arizona, Atlanta and Green Bay. Arizona has tiebreaker advantage over Atlanta at 10-6 based on common opponents (3-2 to 2-3) and both would be at 7-5 in the conference. Atlanta would have to use either Green Bay or Minnesota to create a three-way tie and advance on Strength of Victory. It can't be Minnesota in this scenario, since the Vikings would be beating Arizona and would have a sweep of the Cardinals and Falcons, allowing them to advance as the No. 5 seed and leaving the Cardinals at No. 6 and in the playoffs due to a tiebreaker over Atlanta.

As for the Packers, they could get to 10-6 and 7-5 in the conference (they are 6-3 currently). However, since they have to beat Arizona in Week 16, which would give them a seventh conference win, a Packers win or tie this week against Dallas (rather than a win against an AFC team, Oakland, in Week 15) gives Green Bay more than seven conference wins and avoids the three-team tie Atlanta needs at 7-5 in the conference. Green Bay would advance as No. 5 seed based on conference record, and then Arizona is in the playoffs as the No. 6 seed with the tiebreaker over Atlanta. Thus, a Green Bay win or tie this week paired with a Tampa Bay loss or tie gets the Cardinals in the playoffs.

We have a crowded and murky NFC East with three teams at 5-7 and the Cowboys just a game back at 4-8. Washington and Philadelphia control their own fates for the division title; the Redskins winning out would give them a win over Philadelphia and they would beat the Giants at 9-7 on division record (4-2 to 3-3), and the Eagles would win the division on overall record at 9-7 by winning out and beating the Giants and Redskins. The Cowboys do have the best division record now at 3-2 and could win the division if they can gain on the leaders, including a win over the Redskins in Week 17.

In the NFC North division, Green Bay and Minnesota are tied at 8-4, with the Packers having a head-to-head win in hand over the Vikings. Both teams control their own fate for the title with a Week 17 clash at Lambeau Field on the docket. The Packers will have swept the Vikings if they win in Week 17. However, the Vikings can lose this week at Arizona, which seems like a good possibility, and still control their own fate, since they can win out to get to 11-5 with a 5-1 division record, and their Week 17 win over Green Bay would give them a season split and a better division record. Whichever team does not win the division is in the driver's seat for the No. 5 seed, but the Seahawks are coming on strong and just beat the Vikings, although the Packers beat Seattle in Week 2.

Over to the AFC, where the Bengals are currently the No. 1 seed based on conference record over the Patriots and Broncos. The Bengals have a three-game lead over the Steelers and can clinch the AFC North with a win or tie this week against Pittsburgh at home. If they lose to the Steelers, Cincinnati can clinch a playoff spot this week with EITHER a Jets loss (Cincy would have the advantage in conference record) OR a Chiefs loss (Cincy beat Kansas City).

Will the Bengals emerge from a three-way battle for the No. 1 seed? (USATSI)

The Steelers did strengthen their shot at the playoffs with a big win over the Colts Sunday night, but they are currently the No. 7 seed since they have a 4-4 conference record (the Chiefs are 6-2 and the Jets are 5-4) and they have a head-to-head loss to the Chiefs. The Steelers have a tough two-game stretch with a road game at the Bengals this week followed by the Broncos at home.

In the AFC East, the Patriots have lost two straight games but are still in their familiar catbird seat in the division with a three-game lead over the Jets. New England is extremely close to locking up the division as they only need a win at Houston plus a Jets loss or tie against Tennessee OR a tie plus a Jets loss to clinch the title. In addition, the Patriots could win the division this week with just a win OR a Jets loss if they clinch a tie in the Strength of Victory tiebreaker (record against teams you've beaten). That can happen with any two or more of the following results occurring: Steelers win, Bills win, Browns loss, Dolphins loss.

If New England delays winning the division yet another week, they can clinch a playoff spot with EITHER a win OR a Pittsburgh loss OR a Jets loss and some tie scenarios. There's some extremely complicated reasoning behind the Jets loss giving the Patriots a playoff spot if they don't clinch the SOV tiebreaker this week, and it involves a Steelers loss being good for New England but also the Steelers winning being good for New England to clinch SOV over the Jets. I'll explain more in the comments section below if you are interested.

Both the Jets and Bills are still in the wild-card hunt, although the Jets appear to have a tougher road. Buffalo has a unique late-season three-game stretch against NFC East opponents before they host the Jets in Week 17. Keep an eye on the Bills.

Denver is another team that can clinch playoff positioning this week. The Broncos need a win plus a Chiefs loss or tie OR a tie and a Chiefs loss. Just a win won't do it for Denver as Kansas City can beat the Broncos on division record at 11-5 (5-1 to 4-2). If Denver doesn't win the division, they can make the playoffs with a win plus either the Jets or Steelers losing or tying OR a tie plus either a Jets or Steelers loss.

The Chiefs are currently the No. 5 seed and have a strong 6-2 conference record with key wins over Houston, Pittsburgh and Buffalo along with a relatively weak remaining schedule (SD, @BAL, CLE, OAK). If Denver beats Oakland this week and then loses at Pittsburgh and versus Cincinnati the next two weeks, all while Kansas City will likely be winning out, that will require Denver to beat or tie San Diego at home in Week 17 to win the division. Just sayin'.

In the AFC South, the Colts and Texans are headed towards a Week 15 battle in Indianapolis, and Houston has a tough game at home this week against the Patriots. The Colts have a 3-0 division record and a head-to-head win over Houston in hand as the Matt Hasselbeck train keeps rolling along.

Here's how I see the final seeding playing out based on team strengths, remaining schedules and tiebreakers:

AFC: