Super Bowl LIV is finally here! The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are set to battle for the NFL championship on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. I feel so confident in my best bets for the matchup that I locked them in a week ago, which means there's no way they can lose, right?
To help you bide your time until kickoff, I have a play on the spread, total, and a player prop to boot. It's the Super Bowl, after all. You can't just bet one thing.
The Pick Six Podcast featuring Will Brinson broke down the gambling angles for the Super Bowl on Friday's blowout episode, with spread, total and prop picks from Pete Prisco and R.J. White, fun prop talk with Ryan Wilson and John Breech, plus DFS tips from Heath Cummings. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:
1. 49ers +1
Patrick Mahomes is the star of this game. He's one of the quarterbacks that the league hopes will become the future of the NFL. All of this is for a good reason, as Mahomes is awesome, and does incredible things regularly. He's the biggest reason the Chiefs have ended their AFC title drought, and if the Chiefs are going to win this game, it will be because of Patrick Mahomes.
But you know what? I don't think Mahomes is going to have a great game. You will be shocked to learn that Mahomes is still a human quarterback, and like nearly all quarterbacks, he does not perform nearly as well under pressure as when he has time to find his target. Well, there is no defense better at getting pressure on the QB than San Francisco, and the Chiefs have not had to deal with a pass rush like the one they'll be facing in the Super Bowl. The San Francisco defense, combined with an offense that can control the clock, will limit what the typically explosive Chiefs offense can do, and the 49ers will win this game -- and cover -- because of it.
Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what's the exact final score? Visit SportsLine now to see their Super Bowl cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.
2. Under 54.5
Obviously, based on what I wrote with my spread pick, I believe this is going to be a lower-scoring game. Frankly, if the 49ers are going to win, I think it needs to be. San Francisco can't afford to get into a shootout with the Chiefs because it doesn't have the depth of weapons in the passing game that Kansas City does.
So, as I said above, the Niners defense will pressure Mahomes, while their offense will play the possession game. All of which will lead to a lower score.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Chiefs 21
3. Damien Williams Under 21.5 receiving yards
Damien Williams comes alive in the playoffs. For those dumb enough to draft him early in their fantasy leagues this season, like myself, it's been a painful few weeks watching him score all of those touchdowns he didn't score during the regular season. This is a bad matchup for him, however. San Francisco isn't just great at stopping opposing ground attacks, but they're one of the best defenses in the NFL at limiting backs in the passing game as well. Plus, with the amount of pressure San Francisco will be bringing, Chiefs backs will have to spend more time picking up blitzes than running routes. All of which will limit Williams' output in the game.