Lamar Jackson opened as a 1-50 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy entering Week 12. He was the lock of all locks, but then came Thursday night in Houston when the Cougars' defensive front rag-dolled Jackson on national television in primetime.
Jackson's final stat line -- 20-of-43 passing for 211 yards and one touchdown, 25 rushes for 33 yards -- is not terrible, but considering the stage and how bad it looked for the Cardinals scoring only 10 points at Houston in a big loss, the Heisman favorite might have left the door ajar just a bit.
Now, a couple quick disclaimers before you come yell at me on Twitter. I firmly believe Jackson will still win the Heisman. And I absolutely believe Jackson should win the Heisman. His numbers are ridiculous, I don't think anyone was close to him coming into this week, and I don't think the gap got all that much closer with this performance.
That said, we know how the Heisman voting works, and Jackson is missing one key element. To win the award without being on a national title contending team requires not only special numbers -- which he has -- but to also have a special, season-defining performance in a big game late in the year.
The last two quarterbacks to win off of teams not in contention for the title had those moments. Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel had it with his upset win over No. 1 Alabama. Baylor's Robert Griffin III had it with his upset win over No. 5 Oklahoma. Jackson's best performances were in a win early in the year over Florida State (no longer fresh in voters minds) and in a loss against Clemson (he'll get docked by some, stupidly, for it coming in a loss).
Houston was his last chance to impress on a national stage as the Cardinals are unlikely to make the ACC title game -- Louisville is rooting hard for Wake Forest this week -- and their final game is against Kentucky. Now, had Jackson demolished Houston, folks would have talked about how Houston was in a down year. However, he still would have kept the award on lock.
Now, even though his performance wasn't even that bad and the offensive issues were far from his fault (the offensive line was atrocious), the perception will be that he had a huge letdown in a big spot. That opens the door just a bit for the possibility of another player making a case.
There are probably three players that have the chance to take votes away from Jackson in my estimation. Here they are (along with what they need to do to steal the Heisman from Jackson).
1. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: Barrett can potentially check all the boxes for the Heisman voters. First, he's a quarterback -- eight of the last 10 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks. Second, he is the quarterback of a possible national championship winning team -- Ohio State, if it beats Michigan, will be as close as a team gets to being a playoff lock. Third, he still has a chance at the late season signature performance/moment.
That final point is key. Barrett still gets to play Michigan and the vaunted Wolverines defense. A massive game -- and I'm talking massive, like 300 yards and four or more touchdowns -- and all of a sudden the Buckeyes' quarterback will be getting Heisman chatter. His numbers aren't anywhere near Jackson's, but if he has a huge game against Michigan, I would bet most anything that there will be voters that lean Barrett over Jackson for being on a title contender and winning "the big one" in the regular season.
What could hold him back the most is that, barring some help coming from Rutgers or Michigan State beating Penn State, Barrett wouldn't be able to put a cherry on top in the Big Ten title game even with a win over Michigan. If that were to happen, though, and Sparty beats Penn State, Barrett would have a very real shot at taking down Jackson with back-to-back huge games.
2. Jabrill Peppers, LB/DB/PR/WR/RB/Everything, Michigan: Peppers needs to have the most dynamic performance of any player this season against Ohio State in the regular season finale to win the Heisman, but it is possible.
Think about it. If Michigan gets him 10-plus touches on offense, including at least one electric play and a touchdown (preferably on the same play), he has an huge impact on defense (maybe an INT or fumble recovery and some big tackles for loss), and he gets that signature moment on special teams (Desmond Howard style), the Peppers4Heisman train will get moving.
I know that's asking a lot, but just wait for him to have a game-winning touchdown in some form and make some massive defensive plays. People will start talking. Also, he'd have the Big Ten title game to make a final impression, which Jackson and Barrett won't have.
3. Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama: Like Barrett, Hurts can check all the boxes. His final game is against Auburn, and he's guaranteed to play in the SEC Championship Game. He pretty much has to close with three games like he had last week against Mississippi State -- 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards -- to get attention.
However, if he were to post those numbers against Auburn and a good Florida defense (or if he destroys Tennessee, again), he'll get Heisman talk as well on an undefeated, SEC title-winning Alabama team.
Note: The player that should get Heisman consideration from Alabama is Jonathan Allen, but it's too hard for a defensive lineman to have the stats needed to win the award as it's handled and voted on now.
The Heisman Trophy is still most likely going to Lamar Jackson -- as I believe it should be -- but there will be a push, if nothing else than in an effort to make it interesting, for others to be considered. And there will be voters that go against the grain on Jackson.
