The Cowboys lost to the Packers in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs because Aaron Rodgers was just too good. It's obviously not that simple, but it's an easy way to explain the outcome of the game.
And while everyone will talk about Rodgers and how well he played in the 34-31 Green Bay victory, our hope is that Fantasy owners paid attention to the Cowboys, especially Dez Bryant. He reminded all of us that he's still an elite Fantasy receiver.
When the 2016 season started, there was plenty of concern about Bryant's status. He was coming off an injury-plagued 2015, and Fantasy owners were worried about his production, especially with a rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott.
Bryant then had a good but not great regular season. He finished as the No. 19 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues with 50 catches for 796 yards and eight touchdowns, but he missed three games with a knee injury. The good thing was of the 12 games he played (we'll throw out Week 17 at Philadelphia where he barely saw the field), he had seven outings with double digits in Fantasy points, which might have been overlooked.
And against the Packers he was a star. Bryant had nine catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets, and he goes into the offseason still in the conversation as one of the top-tier Fantasy receivers for 2017.
My early rankings at receiver for next season are Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson and Bryant. I can see that changing numerous times between now and August because all of them are elite talents in great situations, including Bryant.
His rapport with Prescott increased over the season, and in three of his final four full games (again removing Week 17) Bryant had at least nine targets. He was drafted in Round 2 at No. 19 overall in our early mock draft for 2017, and if you can get Bryant at that spot next season, that's tremendous value. He's still among the best players at his position, and he proved that against the Packers.
Let's look at some other players from the divisional round of the NFL playoffs who helped or hurt their Fantasy value heading into the offseason.
Falcons 36, Seahawks 20
The Seahawks have plenty of prominent Fantasy options heading into 2017, including Russell Wilson, Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. And aside from Rawls, the other three had productive Fantasy outings in this matchup with the Falcons.
Wilson finished the game with 225 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions and six carries for 49 yards. Despite being the No. 14 Fantasy quarterback during the season, he ended his year with at least 20 Fantasy points in four of his final five games, including the playoffs. We hope that carries over to 2017, and Wilson should still be considered a top-10 Fantasy quarterback worth drafting with a mid- to late-round pick.
Rawls was Seattle's star in the wild-card round against Detroit with 27 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown, but he failed to follow that up with a strong performance against the Falcons with just 11 carries for 34 yards. The score didn't help Rawls when the Falcons pulled ahead 19-10 at halftime, but he will remain Seattle's starter heading into 2017.
The Seahawks still need to fix their offensive line, and C.J. Prosise will remain a significant factor in the backfield. But Rawls should still be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in standard leagues.
Baldwin had his second quality playoff outing in a row with five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on nine targets against the Falcons, and he had 16 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns on 21 targets in the postseason. He was the No. 10 Fantasy receiver in 2016, but he had six games with at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league and nine games with six points or less. With more consistency, Baldwin can be a Fantasy star, but he remains a solid No. 2 option worth drafting in Round 4 in most formats.
Graham actually had his first touchdown on the road this year against the Falcons with three catches for 22 yards on three targets, but he was a standout Fantasy tight end in 2016 and finished No. 2 at the position behind Travis Kelce. He should play well again in 2017 and is worth drafting in Round 5 or 6 in all leagues.
The top three Fantasy running backs heading into 2017 are basically set with Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott in some order. But No. 4 is where the debate starts, with guys like LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard and DeMarco Murray in the discussion.
I'm leaning toward Freeman at No. 4 as of now, and he continues to play great game after game, essentially for the past two years. He had 125 total yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, which was his ninth game in 2016 with double digits in Fantasy points. He also had four games with at least eight points, and he finished as the No. 7 running back in standard leagues after coming in at No. 1 in 2015.
Freeman has to share work with Tevin Coleman, which is a problem, but he now has consecutive years with 1,500 total yards, 13 total touchdowns and at least 50 catches. He's a stud, and he's worth drafting in the first round in all leagues.
Coleman also had a solid game against Seattle with 11 carries for 57 yards and three catches for 22 yards and a touchdown. He was the No. 18 running back in standard leagues and had nine games with double digits in Fantasy points, including the playoffs, despite missing three games with a hamstring injury. He doesn't need to be just a handcuff for Freeman, and you can draft Coleman in Round 6 in most leagues.
Julio Jones (toe) was hurt against Seattle, but he still finished with six catches for 67 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. He is expected to play against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, and if he stays healthy he will once again be drafted in the first round in all leagues in 2017.
Mohamed Sanu (four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on five targets) and Taylor Gabriel (four catches for 71 yards on six targets) played well against Seattle, but both are late-round picks in most leagues in 2017. Even though Gabriel proved to be more explosive in 2016, Sanu is the better Fantasy option because of his consistent production, especially in PPR.
As for Matt Ryan, he carved up the Seahawks for 338 passing yards and three touchdowns, and he should win the NFL MVP award. He was the No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in 2016 behind Rodgers, and he should be a top-five quarterback next season. Look for Ryan to be drafted in Round 4 or 5 in all leagues.
Patriots 34, Texans 16
It's hard to envision Brock Osweiler as a reliable Fantasy quarterback in 2017, and he showed his flaws in the divisional round at New England with 198 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, although Will Fuller dropped what should have been a 45-yard touchdown pass. We hope there's a scenario where Osweiler is competing for his job because a quarterback upgrade in Houston would likely help Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins.
Miller was somewhat of a disappointment in 2016, and he ended his season with 19 carries for 73 yards and four catches for 16 yards against the Patriots. He was the No. 6 running back drafted on average on CBS Sports, but he finished as the No. 17 running back in standard leagues with 268 carries for 1,073 yards and five touchdowns and 31 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown.
We expected more than 4,0 yards per carry (he averaged 4.8 over his previous two years in Miami), and we thought the bump in workload with a career-high in carries would make him elite. There's still plenty of potential with Miller, and he's worth drafting in Round 2 in all leagues in 2017. He's a good rebound candidate next year.
The same goes for Hopkins, who had six catches for 65 yards on nine targets at New England. He had double digits in Fantasy points in his previous two games, but he finished the year as the No. 38 receiver in standard leagues, which was beyond disappointing. Osweiler was an obvious reason why, but Hopkins also had to share targets with Fuller and C.J. Fiedorowicz, including Miller being an upgrade at running back.
Hopkins will likely be drafted in Round 3, but hopefully he'll get an upgrade over Osweiler at quarterback. If Osweiler does return as the starter, just realize Hopkins is more of a No. 2 receiver than an elite option like we saw in 2015.
As for Fuller, his fate is also tied to Osweiler. Fuller got off to a hot start with three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his first four outings, but he failed to score more than six points in a standard league in any game for the rest of the season. He'll be worth a late-round flier in all leagues in 2017, and his value can definitely improve if Osweiler is replaced.
The star for the Patriots against Houston was Dion Lewis, who had 64 total yards and two touchdowns, and he had 15 total touches compared to just eight for LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 31 yards. Now, Blount was limited all week in practice due to an illness, but Lewis' workload has been increasing over the past month.
This is now four games in a row with at least 13 total touches, and he could be a popular Fantasy option next year. Blount, 30, is a free agent, and if he leaves, Lewis can be the starter. He just has to stay healthy, which will likely determine his Fantasy value in 2017.
Tom Brady didn't have the ideal first playoff game with 287 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against Houston, but he's now another game closer to the Super Bowl. We hope he finishes strong because despite turning 40 when next season starts, he remains a top-five Fantasy quarterback worth drafting with a mid-round pick.
Julian Edelman will also be a standout Fantasy option, and he's clicking right now with eight catches for 137 yards on 13 targets against the Texans. He now has 16 catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns on 26 targets in his past two games, and you see his upside when healthy with Brady.
Now, these last two games coincide with Rob Gronkowski (back) and Malcolm Mitchell (knee) out, so take that into account. But Edelman will again be a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver, especially in PPR, and he's worth drafting in Round 4 in those leagues. In standard leagues, Edelman will likely be drafted in Round 6.
We'll see if Chris Hogan (thigh) can play in the AFC Championship Game against the Steelers, and he had a nice game against Houston with four catches for 95 yards on four targets. If he's out, look for Michael Floyd to be more involved, although he had only one catch for 9 yards on three targets against the Texans.
It's doubtful Floyd is back with New England next year, but Hogan will again be worth a late-round pick. He finished the 2016 season with 38 catches for 680 yards and four touchdowns on 57 targets.
We hope Martellus Bennett does more against the Steelers because he was non-existent with one catch for 4 yards against Houston. Part of that was the matchup since the Texans defend tight ends well, but Fantasy owners in daily leagues are hoping Bennett can play at a high level in the AFC Championship Game.
Packers 34, Cowboys 31
Rodgers carried the Packers in this game with 356 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception and two carries for 16 yards, but you know he's a Fantasy stud. He was my No. 1 quarterback in 2016, and he will be my top guy again next season. Rodgers should be drafted toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all leagues.
Nelson was out with the rib injury, but several other players stepped up for Green Bay, notably Ty Montgomery and Jared Cook. Montgomery had 81 total yards and two touchdowns, and Cook had six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets, which led the team.
We'll see if Montgomery will be the No. 1 running back for the Packers in 2017, and if that happens he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick as a low-end starter. You see how this offense wants to operate with Montgomery in the backfield, which is to spread teams out with his receiving potential, and he had three games with double digits in Fantasy points in his final six outings, including the playoffs.
Cook is one of the ultimate Fantasy tease players, especially at tight end. He's oozing with potential, and we thought he'd play well this season being paired with Rodgers. He again battled injuries and had just three games with at least eight Fantasy points, including the playoffs, so don't fall for this trap in 2017. He's only worth a late-round flier as a No. 2 Fantasy tight end.
Davante Adams (five catches for 76 yards on 10 targets) and Randall Cobb (seven catches for 62 yards on eight targets) played well with Nelson out, but neither had a dominant game. And Geronimo Allison only had modest stats with three catches for 46 yards on five targets. We'll evaluate these guys for 2017 after the NFC Championship Game to see if Nelson is able to return against the Falcons.
Prescott finished his rookie season as the No. 9 Fantasy quarterback with 3,667 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and four interceptions and 282 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He should continue to get better heading into next season, and his solid outing against the Packers is proof of his upside. He's an excellent quarterback to wait on with a mid- to late-round pick in all leagues.
Elliott was again dominant against the Packers with 22 carries for 125 yards, and he finished his rookie season with 100 total yards or a touchdown in every game, including the playoffs. He should be a top-three pick in all leagues, and I would draft him at No. 2 overall behind Bell in standard formats. In PPR, he's behind Bell and David Johnson.
We covered Bryant at the top, but there isn't another must-start Fantasy option for the Cowboys heading into 2017. Cole Beasley (four catches for 45 yards on six targets) is worth a late-round flier, and Jason Witten (six catches for 59 yards and a touchdown on nine targets) is a No. 2 tight end. Terrance Williams (four catches for 68 yards on six targets) is a free agent this offseason, and his Fantasy value will be determined by where he plays in 2017.
Steelers 18, Chiefs 16
There isn't a lot to break down with the Steelers right now since you know all about their three main stars. Ben Roethlisberger again struggled on the road at Kansas City with 224 passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception. Bell was dominant with 30 carries for 170 yards and two catches for minus-4 yards. And Antonio Brown had six catches for 108 yards on 11 targets.
We'll see if Roethlisberger can play well at New England, which would make this an exciting AFC Championship Game, but he'll be a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in 2017 regardless of what happens against the Patriots. And Bell and Brown are likely the No. 1 players at their respective positions heading into next season, especially if Bell can avoid an injury or suspension prior to August. Bell is the front-runner to be the No. 1 overall pick in all leagues.
The guys we want to see perform well against the Patriots are Eli Rogers, who had five catches for 27 yards on seven targets against the Chiefs, and Ladarius Green (concussion), if he's able to play. In his absence, Jesse James had five catches for 83 yards on six targets, but Green is the tight end Fantasy owners want to know about for next year.
Rogers, as of now, is just a late-round flier, especially if Martavis Bryant (suspension) is back. And on Tuesday, Bryant applied for reinstatement, which is great news for his Fantasy outlook in 2017. If he's back, Bryant is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.
Alex Smith is never going to become a reliable Fantasy quarterback, and he had a mediocre game against the Steelers with 172 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. He's a low-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback heading into next season.
We don't know what's going to happen in the Kansas City backfield next year with Jamaal Charles (knee) and Spencer Ware. Charles, who finished the season on injured reserve, would like to return in 2017, but he's 30 and the Chiefs might want to move on from him.
Ware, who had eight carries for 35 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh, might not be the guaranteed starter since he struggled in that role, and he finished as the No. 16 running back in standard leagues with 214 carries for 921 yards and three touchdowns and 33 catches for 447 yards and two touchdowns.
He had eight games with at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league in 2016, including the playoffs, but he only scored double digits in points just four times. If he's the starter, he's worth drafting in Round 4 in most leagues, but we'll see what happens with Charles.
Kelce (five catches for 77 yards on seven targets) has solidified himself as a top-three tight end in all leagues, and he's worth drafting in Round 4 or 5 in all formats. But he's the only consistent presence in this receiving corps.
Jeremy Maclin was a bust in 2016 with 44 catches for 536 yards and two touchdowns on 76 targets, and he only had two games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. Now, prior to this season, Maclin had consecutive years with at least 85 catches, 1,088 yards and eight touchdowns, so there's a potential for a rebound year in 2017. But he's only worth a late-round flier because Smith doesn't enhance his game.
Another reason Maclin struggled in 2016 was the emergence of rookie Tyreek Hill, who had three carries for 18 yards and four catches for 27 yards on six targets against the Steelers. The problem for Hill was his consistency since he had three of his final five games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league, but he went without a catch in two of those outings.
We'd like to see him more involved in the passing game and less of a gadget player, but his upside is hard to avoid. He's worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in 2017 with a mid-round pick.
