Apparently NBA free agents didn't realize last weekend was a holiday weekend, because they kept right on agreeing to -- but not signing, Mark Cuban! -- deals throughout the weekend. Let's catch up on the latest big news and the Fantasy implications of them in the latest free agency roundup.
The Big Headlines
(Fantasy stars who changed teams)
LaMarcus Aldridge signs with Spurs
I am pessimistic about Aldridge's chances to sustain his elite Fantasy stock in his new home, though that isn't to say this isn't a good fit. It is self-evidently a great fit, as Aldridge gets to aim for a title while the Spurs hand the keys to the franchises future from Tim Duncan to him. For Fantasy, however, there isn't much to like about the move from Portland to San Antonio.
In Portland, Aldridge was the franchise. Though some will question whether he was worth all the trouble, there is no question that he pretty much had free reign on the floor with that team. Even while playing with his best supporting cast ever, Aldridge posted the highest usage rates of his career over the last two seasons, while attempting 2,838 field-goal attempts in 140 games; no other player was even within 100 attempts of Aldridge, despite missing 24 games in that time. You pretty much knew you could pencil Aldridge in for 20 or so field-goal attempts per game with the Blazers last season; he finished 38 games with at least that many.
Things probably won't be the same in San Antonio. The Spurs have famously led the charge when it comes to limiting minutes, and their pass-happy offense doesn't allow for the kind of high shot totals Aldridge enjoyed in Portland. Over the last two seasons, the Spurs have had just 20 individual performances that saw a player attempt at least 20 field-goals; Aldridge had 78 such games on his own. There is going to be an adjustment period here, and the Spurs will certainly be more willing to let Aldridge carry a heavy load than anyone else they have had in recent years, but it is still fair to assume he loses shots.
Aldridge isn't the most subtle player in the world. He bludgeons you with volume, finding efficiency out of inefficient spots on the floor. If he loses minutes and shots, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him fall closer to the 20 point per game. That might be enough to drop him down to the second round on Draft Day.
DeAndre Jordan signs with Mavericks
Because he can't put the ball on the floor or score on isolated post-ups, there is a widespread belief that DeAndre Jordan isn't a good offensive player. This probably isn't fair. Yes, Jordan is a limited offensive player, but he makes up for the narrowness of his skillset by being incredibly good at what he does. And he wasn't nearly as dependent on Chris Paul as you might think. In 381 minutes with Paul off the floor last season, Jordan still shot 69.6 percent from the field. Going back to the start of the 2013-14 season, a sample that includes 1,420 minutes, Jordan is shooting 65.2 percent with Paul off the floor.
The Mavericks' point guard situation is not inspiring, but it's not like Austin Rivers, Willie Green and Jamal Crawford are the best playmakers in the world either. When you can outleap everyone for lobs and offensive rebounds, you can actually create your own offense even when you don't have the ball. That isn't to say Jordan definitely won't see a drop-off, but it isn't as obvious as it might seem on the surface. And his rebounding numbers should only be helped by playing next to an ancient Dirk Nowitzki, who is basically a non-factor on the glass.
His free-throw shooting is still a killer, but Jordan is the best rebounder in basketball, and should be able to sustain the gains in scoring he made last season on a team that is likely to ask more from him. Add in the 3.3 combined blocks and steals he averaged last season, and there's enough here to make him one of the most productive centers in the league yet again.
Monta Ellis signs with Pacers
The Pacers wanted to get smaller and faster, after their attempt to bully the league by being bigger fell apart. Ellis should help quite a bit in this regard, though his skills are somewhat redundant on a roster that already has George Hill, Rodney Stuckey (more on him later) and Paul George. Still, we saw Lance Stephenson thrive playing next to Hill and George, and Ellis is a more dynamic off-the-dribble player than Stephenson ever was, so I'm not worried. He is who he is at this point, so expect more of the same 18-5-2 kind of lines from Hill, with the potential for an increase in steal production on what should still be a very good defensive squad.
Ellis and Hill should fit together pretty well, since neither is someone you want with the ball in his hands all game long. Their ability to spell each other should work out nicely, though I have to think Hill's Fantasy appeal takes a hit. He was a No. 2 Fantasy guard last season, so this is disappointing.
The Smaller News
(Fantasy starters who changed teams)
Rajon Rondo signs with Kings
This is kind of the Island of Misfit Toys section of this blog post, with Rondo followed up by Hibbert. Once considered unquestioned difference makers, both were cast off unceremoniously this offseason, with Rondo ending up signing a one-year make-good deal with the Kings. With his lack of shooting, Rondo is neither an idea fit next to DeMarcus Cousins nor in George Karl's system, but the Kings did move heaven and earth -- or at least Carl Landry and Jason Thompson -- to have the ability to sign him. We've seen Rondo be a Fantasy star in the past, and playing at a fast tempo with Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins could get him back there, but you can't draft him as anything more than a low-end starting Fantasy option with upside.
Roy Hibbert traded to Lakers
That thing about the Pacers wanting to get smaller and faster? That's why Hibbert is in Los Angeles. He won't get many shots on a team with D'Angelo Russell, Kobe Bryant, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle, but that's not really why you are interested in Hibbert; you're here for the block party. On a team that is going to have all kinds of problems slowing down penetration, Hibbert could have more opportunities to swat shots away than ever before. With little competition for playing time, Hibbert should get back to the 2.5 block range. As frustrating as he is, Hibbert has definite No. 2 center value in Roto leagues.
Robin Lopez signs with Knicks
Lopez took a small step back last season, averaging his lowest scoring numbers since 2011-12. On a Knicks team that desperately needs talent, he should bounce back nicely, assuming health. His upside is limited, but Lopez is a helpful contributor in percentage categories, and should add something close to a double-double with close to two blocks in his new home.
Wesley Matthews signs with Mavericks
A healthy Matthews could be a perfect fit for Dallas' high-tempo offense, but the injury he is coming back from is one of the toughest in sports. An Achilles injury usually takes a full season to return to full strength, so you probably have to discount Matthews on Draft Day. Still, he is probably worth targeting as a low-end starter even with concerns about the injury.
Lou Williams signs with Lakers
The Lakers just need talent, so the fit makes sense in that regard. However, Williams is a shoot-first guard on a team full of them. He will be competing for shots with the likes of the aforementioned Russell, Bryant and Clarkson, along with Nick Young if they don't trade him, so a return to last season's levels seems unlikely.
David West signs with Spurs
West fell off in a big way last season, as his scoring average dropped for the third straight season. He still finished the season averaging 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists, but he fell off across the board after the All-Star break. He turned down $12 million and a guaranteed starting spot in Indiana for the right to come off the bench in San Antonio -- with the potential of a championship ring as compensation -- so he is probably okay with the possibility of losing shots. You might still want to grab him as a reserve for Fantasy, but West might not be long for your roster after the first few weeks.
The Rest
Reggie Jackson returns to Pistons
Over the last month of the 2014-15 season, Jackson showed elite Fantasy ability, averaging 19.9 points, 10.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game from March 17 on. That isn't just an arbitrary endpoint; it coincides with Greg Monroe's absence from the lineup. With Monroe out of the picture for good this coming season and stretch-4's like Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris around to space the floor, there is reason to be very optimistic about Jackson's potential to be a high-end Fantasy option. Still, his shaky jumper and spotty track record mean he is not at all a sure thing. I might end up passing on Jackson on Draft Day if it requires paying for the dominant player he was over the last month of his Pistons debut.
Tobias Harris returns to Magic
There is almost certainly some recency bias at play here because I just finished watching Aaron Gordon dominate the Orlando Summer League, but I was hoping Harris would move on. The Magic have a lot of talented young pieces like Gordon and Harris, but so many of them overlap or don't quite fit together. What position does Harris play? He shot 36.4 percent from 3-point range last season en route to a career-best 17.1 points per game average, but he struggled with consistency yet again while also missing 14 games due to injury. Harris has given us tantalizing flashes of his potential before, but I think he has a better chance to live up to it somewhere that isn't Orlando. Still, he is a solid forward option if you can live with lackluster passing and defensive production.
Rodney Stuckey returns to Pacers
Stuckey was a useful Fantasy option once he got going last season, averaging 14.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game after the All-Star break. However, with the signing of Ellis and the return of George, his skill set is suddenly looking a lot more replaceable. If Stuckey's gains as a 3-point shooter last season stick, he can fit in three-guard lineups, but expect him to lose a big chunk of his minutes and shots. There is still some appeal here, but Stuckey looks like a reserve unless things drastically change.
