The NBA playoffs begin in a few days. The races are tightening, the seeds are being sorted out, the picture is slowly becoming clear. With that, hereâs a look at the current playoff picture, and what to know about each team thatâs in, or in the running for a spot.
Some quick notes:
- Golden State locked the No. 1 seed and home court throughout the playoffs. Most of the West is locked.
- The following series are locked in the Western Conference: (2) Spurs vs. (7) Grizzlies, (3) Rockets vs. (6) Thunder, (4/5) Jazz vs. (5/4) Clippers (home court TBD), (1) Golden State vs. (8) Portland.
- The Clippers and Jazz won Monday, so home court will go down to Wednesday night. A Clippers win or Jazz loss secures home court for L.A.
- The Raptors and Wizards are locked as the Nos. 3 and 4 in the Eastern Conference.
- The Cavaliers, in profoundly silly style, lost twice to Atlanta over the weekend and after resting players vs. Miami, now are one game back of the No. 1 seed.
- Boston controls its destiny for the top seed. Win, and the Celtics have home court throughout the East. They also get the first seed with a Cavs loss.
- The Eastern Conference ... is where things go nuts.
Eastern Conference scenarios
No. 1 vs. No. 2 seed
- If the Cavs win and Boston loses: The Cavs are the first seed.
- If the Cavs win and Boston wins: The Celtics are the first seed.
- If the Cavs lose: The Celtics are the first seed.
No. 3 seed goes to the Raptors (locked)
No. 4 seed goes to the Wizards (locked).
Nos. 5, 6 and 7
So Atlanta canât fall further than seventh. The Hawks have the tiebreaker over the Bucks, and play the Pacers in the final game Wednesday, series tied 2-2. Here are their scenarios. Their magic number for the fifth seed is one.
- If Atlanta goes 2-0: Atlanta is the fifth seed.
- If Atlanta goes 1-1: Atlanta is the fifth seed.
- If Atlanta goes 0-2 and the Bucks lose: Atlanta is the fifth seed.
- If Atlanta goes 0-2 Bucks win: Bucks are the fifth seed, Atlanta is the seventh seed.
The Bucks canât fall further than sixth, thanks to a tiebreaker over Indiana. Their scenarios:
- If Atlanta goes 2-0: Milwaukee is the sixth seed.
- If Atlanta goes 1-1: Milwaukee is the sixth seed.
- If Atlanta goes 0-2 and the Bucks lose: The Bucks are the sixth seed.
- If Atlanta goes 0-2 and the Bucks win: The Bucks are the fifth seed.
The Pacers can finish as high as sixth and as low as eighth. If they want to finish sixth, they need a Hawks loss to Charlotte on Tuesday. Their scenarios if they beat Atlanta:
- If the Hawks win one game and the Pacers win: The Pacers are the seventh seed.
- If the Hawks lose both games, the Bucks win, and the Pacers win: The Pacers are the sixth seed.
- If the Hawks lose both games, and the Bucks lose: The Pacers are the seventh seed by virtue of a 3-way tie.
Nos. 7 and 8
Now, if the Pacers lose, things go bonkers. The Heat and Bulls both have tiebreakers, and both win three-way ties. Here are the scenarios:
- If Pacers win, Bulls win, Heat win, Pacers 6/7, Bulls 8, Heat out.
- If Pacers win, Bulls win, Heat lose, Pacers 6/7, Bulls 8, Heat out.
- If Pacers win, Bulls lose, Heat lose, Pacers 6/7, Bulls 8, Heat out
- If Pacers win, Bulls lose, Heat win, Pacers 6/7, Heat 8, Bulls out.
- If Pacers lose, Bulls win, Heat win, Bulls 7, Heat 8, Pacers out.
- If Pacers lose, Bulls lose, Heat win, Heat 7, Pacers 8, Bulls out.
- if Pacers lose, Bulls lose, Heat lose, itâs Pacers 7, Bulls 8, Heat out.
- If Pacers lose, Bulls win, Heat lose, Itâs Bulls 7, Pacers 8, Heat out.
Thereâs only one scenario where Indiana is out, but itâs a plausible one. Does Indiana want to go for the sixth seed? If so it needs Charlotte to win Tuesday so the Pacers move into sixth with a win. But if Atlanta wins Tuesday, the Hawks have nothing to play for Wednesday, giving the Pacers a better chance at clinching a spot.
If youâre the Heat, you want the Pacers to lose no matter what. After that you want the Bulls to lose too. And of course, you have to beat Washington.
Simple, right?
If the playoffs started today ...
Seeding analysis and magic numbers
Curious as to why tiebreakers matter so much? The Nos. 3-6 seeds in the Western Conference were decided by a tiebreaker in 2015. The same thing happened in the Eastern Conference in 2016. Teams wind up clumping together at the end. Tiebreakers matter.
Note: âMagic numbersâ refers to combination of wins and losses by the competing team. Example: If the Cavaliers have a magic number of seven for a playoff spot, that means they need a combination of seven wins and losses by Miami (the team currently out of the playoffs with the fewest losses). âTragic numbersâ are the combination of a teamâs losses and competitorâs wins which would eliminate a team from a position.
Western Conference
The contenders
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and home court throughout the NBA playoffs, along with the Pacific Division.
- Remaining games: One: LAL
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the No. 1 seed, will play Portland first round.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a top-two seed, locked as the second seed.
- Remaining games: One: @UTA
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the No. 2 seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched home court in the first round and the third seed.
- Remaining games: One: MIN
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the No. 3 seed.
The dangerous second tier
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and a top-five seed. Magic number for the fourth seed is two.
- Remaining games: One: SAC
- Lead/trails and tiebreakers: Tied with Jazz, and own the tiebreaker. Can finish no worse than fifth, control destiny for fourth seed and home court. Need win vs. Sacramento or Utah loss to San Antonio on Wednesday to secure home court.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and a top-six seed. Locked at sixth, will face Rockets first round.
- Remaining games: Two: @MIN, DEN
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked as the sixth seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot, the Northwest Division, and no worse than fifth. Play for home court Wednesday.
- Remaining games: One: SA
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Tied with Clippers, Clippers have the tiebreaker. Cannot secure higher than fourth seed. Do not control destiny for the fourth seed and home court. Need a Clippers loss to Sacramento and a win vs. San Antonio for home court.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched the seventh seed. Will face San Antonio in the first round.
- Remaining games: One: DAL
- Lead/trail and tiebreakers: Locked at No. 7. Locked vs. Spurs first round.
Portland winds up the best of the mess
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched the eighth seed.
- Remaining games: One: NO
- Leads/trails and tiebreaker: Clinched the eighth seed, will face Golden State in the first round.
Eastern Conference
The champs continue to fade
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot, the Atlantic Division, a top-two seed and home court in the first two rounds.
- Remaining games: One: MIL
- Owns tiebreaker: Lead Cavs by one game, Cavs have the tiebreaker. Need a win Wednesday vs. Milwaukee or Cavs loss to Toronto to secure the No. 1 seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched playoff spot, Central Division, a top-two seed and home court in the first two rounds.
- Remaining games: One: TOR
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Celtics by one game, have the tiebreaker. Need a win vs. Toronto and a Celtics loss Wednesday for the No. 1 seed.
Eastern heirs
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and home court in the first round. Locked as the third seed.
- Remaining games: One: @CLE
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Locked as the third seed.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot, the Southeast Division and a top-four seed. Locked as the fourth seed.
- Remaining games: One: @MIA
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Locked as the fourth seed.
The messy middle
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot. Magic number for the fifth seed is one. Clinched no worse than seventh.
- Remaining games: One: @IND
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Lead Bucks by a half-game, have the tiebreaker. Lead Pacers by one game, tiebreaker yet to be decided.
- Clinched/magic number: Clinched a playoff spot and a top-six seed.
- Remaining games: One: @BOS
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Hawks by a half-game, Hawks have the tiebreaker. Lead Pacers by one game, have tiebreaker over Pacers. Beat Pacers in three-way tie with Atlanta.
- Clinched/magic number: Magic number is one.
- Remaining games: One: ATL
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Lead Bulls and Heat by a game, Bulls and Heat have the tiebreaker. Trail Atlanta by 1.5 games, can win tiebreaker Wednesday.
- Clinched/magic number: Magic number is one for a playoff spot.
- Remaining games: One: BKN
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Pacers by a game, tied with Heat, hold tiebreaker over both. Can only miss playoffs if Heat win and Bulls lose.
- Clinched/magic number: Tragic number is one.
- Remaining games: One: WAS
- Trails/leads and tiebreakers: Trail Pacers by a game, have tiebreaker. Trail Chicago by a game, Bulls have tiebreaker. Need a win and a loss by either Indiana or Chicago to secure playoff spot.
