Back in May, following the 2016 NFL Draft, we took a look at some of the over-under lines around the NFL, trying to figure out what teams would fall short of their projected Las Vegas win total and what teams would improve on the number given to them by our friends in the desert.

For whatever reason, when we've done this in the past few years, we haven't revisited it as the season gets closer. With preseason action set to start on Thursday night (there are six games slated, check the schedule here), it makes sense to take another look and imagine how these teams will shake out.

The numbers for each team haven't changed dramatically, but the price (in parentheses) probably has -- if a team has a (-130) you need to bet $130 to win $100. Conversely, if a team has a (+110), if you bet $100 you would win $110. The price is almost as important as the number when it comes to the NFL, where a few games swing based on the random luck of fumbles.

On Wednesday we rolled out the AFC predictions, and now we get down to the NFC. There are two "Best Bets" noted for each conference as well.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

  • 10 Over (-140) / Under (+120)
  • May Win Total: 9.5

So much for a lack of respect for the Cardinals. Arizona's seen their win total creep up half a game over the past three months, with the price not getting any cheaper. It almost feels like this is the "all or nothing" tax -- after watching Arizona's franchise operate on Amazon's hit TV series, it's easy to get behind the idea they'll be good in 2016. Carson Palmer isn't recovering from a torn ACL this year and the offense is loaded with playmakers. Defensively they've improved the pass rush, the only thing that's really been holding them back. Have a feeling I'm not the only one who likes the Cardinals this year, which is a scary thought for everyone involved (bandwagons are usually bad in the NFL).

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER
  • *BEST BET

Los Angeles Rams

  • 7.5 Over (+140) / Under (-160)
  • May Win Total: 7.5

Essentially the same price for the Rams and why not? This team is what we think it is (R.I.P., Denny Green): they have a great defensive line, a great running game, a dangerous secondary capable of giving up big plays, no real help at wide receiver in a traditional sense and a major question mark at the quarterback position. Moving to Los Angeles, appearing on Hard Knocks and drafting Jared Goff doesn't change that. We just don't know how good or how bad the rookie can be. Preseason will help a little with that but the Rams are still a team expected to float around .500, primarily because of their division.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

San Francisco 49ers

  • 5.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)
  • May Win Total: 5.5

Nothing much has changed here, either. We don't know if Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick will be the starter for the 49ers and given Chip Kelly's history in selecting quarterbacks, we probably shouldn't expect to know until right up until the season begins. Still love Carlos Hyde and think his preseason play drives his hype way up before the season starts. This is still a team without a lot of talent, in a really tough division with a tough schedule. If anyone other than the Chipster was coaching, the under would feel like a really easy pick.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

Seattle Seahawks

  • 10.5 Over (-130) / Under (+110)
  • May Win Total: 10.5

Seattle's remained pretty constant at the current price, which is certainly not cheap if you think the Seahawks will be good this year. That 10.5 is a big number with a high price: taking the under is probably the prudent investment, but betting against Seattle is just silly. There are red flags, of course, especially with the running game. The offensive line is basically new, there's no more Marshawn Lynch and no one is entirely sure how healthy Thomas Rawls is (Pete Carroll thinks he's in great shape but he runs SO hard it's scary). The defense is going to be dominant and the schedule is great: Seattle starting out 3-2 would be a massive disappointment. A perfect 5-0 heading into Week 7 against the Cardinals is not unreasonable at all. If Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin find the same groove they had for a four-game stretch last season, they'll blow 11 wins out of the water.

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

  • 7.0 Over (-145) / Under (+125)
  • May Win Total: 7.5

It's wild what a difference in half a game means for the price here -- it's expensive if you think the Falcons will be a .500 team or better. Matt Ryan should be better during his second season with Kyle Shanahan's offense and Devonta Freeman is being unnecessarily discounted after a slow second half. Julio Jones is a destroyer of worlds. Dan Quinn will make this defense better in his second season, especially with an offseason to add more parts. Their schedule is BRUTAL though. Four of their first six games on the road, three of the first six are division games and three of their first six games are against playoff teams from last year (Panthers, Broncos, Seahawks, gulp). Two wins before hosting the Chargers and Packers in Weeks 6 and 7, respectively, would be good.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

Carolina Panthers

  • 10.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)
  • May Win Total: 10.5

My initial lean for the Panthers has been the under, because the team's win total is highly over-priced. And 10.5 wins is a lot for anyone -- it's tied for most in the NFL. Matchups against the NFC West don't really help matters, but I think ultimately the Panthers win total is won or lost in the first six weeks of the season. Three games specifically: opening night in Denver, Week 3 at home against the Vikings and Week 6 at the Saints. It's easy to say the Panthers are better than all three teams. They are! But they're not guaranteed to crush those teams. If they can manage 4-2 in those games then 11 looks like a reasonable number of wins, assuming no really bad luck. If they go 3-3 to open the season, it could very well end up being a 10-win year for Carolina, which wouldn't be all that bad. Cam Newton is a top-five NFL quarterback and I expect a big follow up to his MVP year, with improved statistics for that offense thanks to the return of Kelvin Benjamin and the maturation of Devin Funchess. The secondary is still a wild card but it will be better than people think. The win total didn't budge after Josh Norman left and it feels like, once again, people are selling the Panthers short. It's a recurring mistake I'm deciding not to make this year.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: OVER

New Orleans Saints

  • 7.0 Over (-135) / Under (+115)
  • May Win Total: 7.0

The price has gone up substantially for the Saints over (it was even in May), which indicates a little bit more belief in what they've got cooking in New Orleans. The idea of Drew Brees and Sean Payton always lingers as a positive and both guys should be motivated to improve on the last two seasons. There's no such as a "guaranteed win" in the NFL, but you look at the Saints schedule and there aren't many easy wins, because of how their schedule lines up. Look at their six games after the bye: they play the Panthers (home), Chiefs (road), Seahawks (home), 49ers (road), Broncos (road) and Panthers (road, short week). That's a murderer's row -- if the Saints get out to a slow start they're going to struggle. They'll score points and be competitive, but if the defense doesn't take a step it's hard to imagine them in playoff contention again.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • 7.0 Over (-125) / Under (+105)
  • May Win Total: 7.5

Surprising to see Vegas cool on the Bucs, who were a hot "sneaky playoff team" last year. As I wrote in May, everything hinges on the defense -- if they can produce an above-average unit after Lovie Smith was canned and sent back to the college game. There is ample talent on that side of the ball, starting with Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. With Doug Martin, Mike Evans, Charles Sims and Vincent Jackson along with a developing offensive line, Jameis Winston is a strong candidate for a breakout sophomore season. People are sleeping on Tampa and they're a solid pick for a strong season.

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER

NFC North

Chicago Bears

  • 7.5 Over (+120) / Under (-140)
  • May Win Total: 7.5

Same total but a vastly different price (over was -120 in May) for the Bears. Still like them as a sleeper team NO ONE is talking about, particularly with the success John Fox has had turning around teams quickly. Both the Panthers and Broncos took big steps in his second season, with Carolina winning 11 games and Denver winning 13 games in the second year after he took over. Adam Gase leaving for the Dolphins gig is the only thing that's scary, because of the Jay Cutler regression factor. The schedule is friendly, with games against the Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Colts and Jaguars to open. Any of those teams can beat the Bears, but they don't face a true NFC powerhouse until the Packers in Week 7. The back half of the schedule is friendly too: Bucs, Giants, Titans, 49ers, Lions and Redskins are all featured. Starting to love the Bears, especially with the bonus price tag.

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER
  • *BEST BET

Detroit Lions

  • 7.0 Over (-120) / Under (Even)
  • May Win Total: 7.0

There is plenty of optimism around the Lions (I think?) but I'm not entirely sure why. Matthew Stafford looked great down the stretch in Jim Bob Cooter's offense, but Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are far less intimidating without Calvin Johnson on the field. Ameer Abdullah could be a game-changing back, or he could be injured and fumble a lot. The offensive line better be good, with three first-round picks on it, in addition to Travis Swanson and Larry Warford. Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay are the two big faces of a defense that doesn't really have an identity.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

Green Bay Packers

  • 10.5 Over (-150) / Under (+130)
  • May Win Total: 10.5

It's gotten a little cheaper to take the over on the Packers, but that's a pretty prohibitive price tag when you're talking about a team with question marks. Is Eddie Lacy in shape and ready to dominant in the ground game? Is Jordy Nelson healthy? If the answers to those are "no" then it's a total leap of faith on Aaron Rodgers. Not a terrible player to leap on, but 11 wins is a lot. A Week 4 bye doesn't help matters, although if you're going to get hit with three-straight road games, you could do worse than Titans/Redskins/Eagles in terms of making some hay where you're not supposed to. They get the Seahawks at home, which is a big advantage for a tough game as well. I'll take the leap but wouldn't want to put as much coin as needed for the price. Rodgers is too good in Lambeau to bet against him not winning four road games.

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER

Minnesota Vikings

  • 9.5 Over (-130) / Under (+110)
  • May Win Total: 9.5

Not entirely sure why I didn't like the Vikings in May. Maybe it was buying on the Bears and the Packers previously? Ten games is asking a lot, but they're not getting much respect (even from me!) for having won the NFC North last year. The open with the Titans but Packers/Panthers/Giants/Texans before a Week 6 buy isn't a cakewalk. The thing is, all Teddy Bridgewater has to become is Alex Smith with a better deep ball and this team is going to be steady as all get out. The defense is primed to take a step into the elite category, because it's loaded with young talent, and Adrian Peterson can still carry the offensive load. Reversing course here.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: OVER

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

  • 9.0 Over (-110) / Under (-110)
  • May Win Total: 9.5

Full half a game shaved off the Cowboys win total in a few months, which is telling when it comes to their offseason. Everything about their offense screams "bounce back" -- if Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are healthy and Ezekiel Elliott plays a full season, they will be a dominant unit. But then you look at the defense. With suspensions to Rolando McClain, Randy Gregory and Demarcus Lawrence, this is a team without playmakers on that side of the ball. Who's rushing the passer? They can't magically stop everyone with their offense. Still like the over because I don't trust the division, but my goodness there are more concerns than there were before.

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER

New York Giants

  • 8.0 Over (-130) / Under (+110)
  • May Win Total: 8.0

I keep coming back to the idea that if another team in this division -- any other team, actually -- had made the moves the Giants made, we would be making fun of them for being the "offseason champs" and spending all of the free agency money when everyone knows that's not how you win in the NFL. But because the Giants get the benefit of the doubt, people are looking for a playoff run. We don't know how Ben McAdoo will function as a head coach, but we do know Tom Coughlin elevated a terrible team last year. Only thing that's scary is a massive year from Odell Beckham.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

Philadelphia Eagles

  • 7.0 Over (+120) / Under (-140)
  • May Win Total: 7.5

People are hammering the Eagles under apparently, because it dropped a full half a win since May and is basically the same price. And that's after Sam Bradford agreed to play the full season! There is a lot to like on the defensive end of things, including the underrated Fletcher Cox. The Eagles did the smart thing by shipping out bad contracts and signing quality players drafted by the club. But this quarterback thing weighs heavy, man. What if Bradford gets hurt (not unheard of)? Then Chase Daniel and Carson Wentz are going to take you to the playoffs? Or even eight wins? I don't think so.

  • Previously: Under
  • VERDICT: UNDER

Washington Redskins

  • 7.0 Over (-150) / Under (+130)
  • May Win Total: 7.5

Clearly Vegas is not buying into Kirk Cousins. How else can you explain the Redskins being the only playoff team from 2015 without a win total above eight? Seven wins is a slap in the face to a franchise that's actually been fairly patient and smart, which flies against everything you normally expect from the Redskins. Regression for the quarterback is coming, and the running back situation is a concern (Matt Jones/Chris Thompson/Keith Marshall are not guarantees for a feature back). The defense is better than you think and GM Scot McCloughan is building this roster the right way. Even if you think Washington will miss the playoffs and Josh Norman will struggle with really tough match ups, the over is the play.

  • Previously: Over
  • VERDICT: OVER