Cincinnati vs. Memphis odds: AAC Tournament picks from expert on 10-6 college basketball run

Michael Rusk uses algorithms pooling with recency bias to produce college basketball picks

Cincinnati and Memphis meet in the American Athletic Conference semifinals Saturday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The Bearcats opened as 16.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 130.5.

Before picking either side, you need to read what SportsLine basketball expert and statistical analyst Michael Rusk, who has put together an impressive 10-6 run picking college basketball games, has to say.

On Thursday, Rusk made a strong pick involving Duke and Notre Dame, confidently taking the over (143.5). He wisely recognized that the line had been deflated by Vegas because the under had been on a monster run for both squads. The result: The Blue Devils and Irish both shot at least 44 percent from the field in a wild 88-70 Duke win, allowing Rusk to cash with more than a dozen points to spare.

Part of his success: Rusk uses algorithms pooling with recency bias to produce profitable picks. He trusts numbers above all else.

Now, he has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Cincinnati-Memphis and locked in his strong against-the-spread pick.

Rusk knows Cincinnati is 21-2 in its past 23 games, while Memphis has won seven of its past eight.

The Bearcats' best shot at covering the spread involves controlling the tempo. Memphis ranks in the bottom third nationwide in scoring, which does not bode well against the defensive-minded Bearcats, who yield 57.3 points per game -- second best in the country.

But the Tigers can cover the spread -- or win outright -- by stymieing Cincinnati's star guard Jacob Evans, who leads the team in both scoring and assists. Evans will likely draw Memphis' leading scorer, Jeremiah Martin, who nets nearly 19 points per game. Evans has active hands, averaging 1.3 steals.

Rusk has identified a second-level stat you're not even thinking about that determines which side of the spread prevails.

Will Memphis secure a much-needed win to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive, or does Cincinnati roll to a comfortable win, covering the 16.5-point spread with ease? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick, and see what high-level stat determines what happens, all from the expert who is on a 10-6 run picking college basketball games.