The top two seeds face off in the 2023 Big East Tournament final on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden. The No. 1 seed Marquette Golden Eagles advanced with a thrilling win over UConn on Friday, and Shaka Smart's team is red-hot. Marquette hasn't lost a home or neutral-court game since Dec. 3, and the Golden Eagles are 19-3 against the Big East. Marquette is 27-6 overall, with No. 2 seed Xavier entering at 25-8 overall and 17-5 in Big East action.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Golden Eagles as 2-point favorites for this 6:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 153.5 in the latest Xavier vs. Marquette odds. Before locking in any Marquette vs. Xavier picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has zeroed in on Marquette vs. Xavier and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Xavier vs. Marquette:
- Xavier vs. Marquette spread: Marquette -2
- Xavier vs. Marquette over/under: 153.5 points
- Xavier vs. Marquette money line: Marquette -135, Xavier +115
- Xavier: The Musketeers are 13-9 against the spread in Big East games
- Marquette: The Golden Eagles are 14-8 against the spread in Big East games
- Xavier vs. Marquette picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Xavier can cover
Xavier's highly-explosive offense is led by Souley Boum and Colby Jones. The duo combined for 37 points in the semifinal win over Creighton, and each averages more than 15 points per game this season. Xavier is in the top 10 of the country in both shooting efficiency and adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Musketeers are in the top five of the nation in making 40% of 3-point attempts. Xavier also leads the Big East in field goal percentage (49%) and leads the country with nearly 20 assists per game. The Musketeers are in the top four of the Big East in free throw rate and offensive rebound rate, and Marquette's defense is potentially vulnerable.
The Golden Eagles are in the bottom four of the conference in shooting efficiency allowed and defensive rebound rate, with Marquette posting the worst 2-point defense in the Big East. On the other end, Xavier has a huge edge on the glass, with the Musketeers ranking No. 2 in the Big East in defensive rebound rate and the Golden Eagles securing fewer than 27% of missed shots on the offensive glass.
Why Marquette can cover
Smart's team is rolling. Marquette is led by its offense, but the Golden Eagles also have elite metrics in one defensive area. The Golden Eagles create havoc at a sky-high level, leading the Big East in turnover creation rate (23%) and steal rate (14%) this season. That puts Marquette in a position for offensive success, and the Golden Eagles are in the top 10 of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and shooting efficiency.
No team scores more points per possession in the Big East than Marquette, and the Golden Eagles lead the country in making 59% of 2-point attempts this season. In addition to creating havoc on defense, Marquette avoids havoc on offense, leading the Big East in turnover rate (14%) and live-ball turnover rate (8%). With Marquette also averaging more than 17 assists per game, the foundation is strong for offensive potency.
How to make Xavier vs. Marquette picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 159 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Marquette vs. Xavier? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
