The No. 1 seed Tennessee Volunteers (24-7) will try to avenge a regular-season loss to the No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-12) when they meet in the 2024 SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday afternoon. Tennessee came up short in a 77-72 setback in Starkville at the beginning of January, but the Vols went 13-3 in their final 16 games to win the outright regular-season title in league play and earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi State picked up an important win over No. 8 seed LSU in the second round on Thursday, helping its cause for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs dropped their final four games of the regular season, including an overtime setback against then-No. 17 South Carolina last Saturday.
Tipoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Friday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. The Vols are favored by 10 points in the latest Tennessee vs. Mississippi State odds, while the over/under is 142 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Mississippi State vs. Tennessee picks, you'll want to see the NCAA Basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters 2024 conference championship week on a 145-104 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 28-18 (+820) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Tennessee. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the game:
- Tennessee vs. Mississippi State spread: Tennessee -10
- Tennessee vs. Mississippi State over/under: 142 points
- Tennessee vs. Mississippi State money line: Tennessee -580, Miss. State +420
- Tennessee vs. Mississippi State picks: See picks here
Why Tennessee can cover
Tennessee has plenty of reasons to be motivated for this game, as the Vols look to avenge their regular-season loss to the Bulldogs while also improve their chances of earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They are also trying to get back on track after a loss to Kentucky at home on senior day, despite a 40-point performance from SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht. Tennessee had previously won consecutive games against Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina, who were all top-25 teams.
Knecht is averaging 21.4 points per game and scored 28 in the first matchup with Mississippi State, while veteran point guard Zakai Zeigler had 26 points in that game. Junior forward Jonas Aidoo is also averaging double figures with 12.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. The Vols have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these teams, and Mississippi State is just 1-7 against the spread in its last eight games in March.
Why Mississippi State can cover
Mississippi State can erase any doubt about its NCAA Tournament chances with a win on Friday afternoon. The Bulldogs might've already punched their ticket with their 70-60 win over LSU on Thursday. Star freshman guard Josh Hubbard took over down the stretch, finishing with 24 points and going 9 of 10 from the charity stripe.
Hubbard poured in 25 points on 8 of 15 shooting off the bench in the regular-season win over Tennessee, while senior forward Tolu Smith had 23 points. The Bulldogs held the Vols to 8 of 29 (27.6%) shooting from 3-point range and 27 of 59 (45.8%) overall in that game. Tennessee has not played in six days, while Mississippi State was able to get back into a rhythm on Thursday. See which team to pick here.
How to make Tennessee vs. Mississippi State picks
The model has simulated Miss State vs. Tennessee 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Tennessee vs. Mississippi State, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 145-104 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.
