Only one first-round matchup in the 2021 NCAA Tournament features teams from the same state and that's the East Region contest between No. 3 Texas (19-7) and No. 14 Abilene Christian (23-4). Despite their proximity in the Lone Star State, these teams have never played each other. The Longhorns earned their No. 3 seed by finishing their season strong with five straight wins, including a 91-86 triumph over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game. The Wildcats are on a four-game winning streak that has been utterly dominant as they've won by an average margin of victory of 20.8 points and claimed the Southland Tournament Championship.
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will host the game with tip-off set for 9:50 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Longhorns are listed as eight-point favorites in the latest Texas vs. Abilene Christian odds per William Hill Sportsbook and the over-under is set at 139.5. Before making any Abilene Christian vs. Texas picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texas vs. Abilene Christian in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Abilene Christian vs. Texas:
- Texas vs. Abilene Christian spread: Texas -8
- Texas vs. Abilene Christian over-under: 139.5 points
- Texas vs. Abilene Christian money line: Texas -420, Abilene Christian +320
- UT: The Longhorns are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
- ACU: The Wildcats are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why Texas can cover
Texas is as loaded as any team in the nation with a roster littered with highly-ranked recruits, so Shaka Smart has plenty of options to turn to if a starter is not getting the job done. But everyone in a Longhorns uniform has been getting the job done, especially their top three scorers of Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG), Matt Coleman (13.3 PPG) and Courtney Ramey (12.6). Each of those players shoots over 80 percent from the free-throw line, thus giving Smart confidence to put the ball in the hands of any one of them in crunch time.
The Longhorns' starting five is similar to a well-oiled machine where every part has a job and performs it admirably. Jones leads the team in points while Coleman leads in assists and Ramey leads in 3-point percentage. Then there are the big men, Greg Brown and Jericho Sims, who protect the interior. Brown, who is the only freshman on the team, leads Texas in blocked shots and is second in rebounds, while Sims leads in rebounds and is second in blocks.
Why Abilene Christian can cover
Of the 347 Division I teams who competed this season, Abilene Christian reigned supreme in defensive rating. It held opponents to 83.5 points allowed per 100 possessions and also allowed just 60.5 points per game. In December Abilene Christian held Texas Tech to 51 points and that same Red Raiders team averaged 71 points in three games vs. the Longhorns. What makes the Wildcats' defense so stingy is that they limit offensive opportunities for their opponents as Abilene Christian leads the country with 20.3 forced turnovers per game.
It's not solely the defense that has Abilene Christian with a 23-4 record and in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. It also puts up nearly 78 points per game thanks to its deep roster in which 11 players get regular minutes. The fulcrum of their offense (and defense) is 7-footer Kolton Kohl (12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) who is a decent passer for a big man and also not a liability at the line as he knocks down 71 percent of his free throw attempts. Abilene Christian fits the profile of a double-digit seed who can shock some people and make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
How to make Texas vs. Abilene Christian picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 143 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Abilene Christian vs. Texas? And which side of the spread hit well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.
