The East Region will be the first to send a team to the Final Four when No. 1 UConn faces No. 3 Illinois in an Elite Eight matchup on Saturday in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. UConn is already the first defending champion since Florida in 2007 to reach the Elite Eight, but it has its sights set on something even greater. The Huskies are 34-3 this season, claimed both the Big East regular season and tournament championships, and have won 10 straight. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are 29-8, won the Big Ten Tournament, and are riding a seven-game win streak.
The game will tip off at 6:09 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston. The Huskies are favored by 8.5 points in the latest UConn vs. Illinois odds, per SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points scored is 154.5. Before making any Illinois vs. UConn picks, you need to check out the college basketball analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 152-109 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It also has a strong 32-21 (+890) record on top-rated spread picks this season, and it called 13 Sweet 16 teams this year. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on UConn vs. Illinois and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and betting lines and trends for Illinois vs. UConn:
- UConn vs. Illinois spread: Huskies -8.5
- UConn vs. Illinois over/under: 154.5 points
- UConn vs. Illinois money line: Huskies -454, Fighting Illini +344
- UCONN: The Huskies rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage (49.7%).
- ILL: The Illini are ninth in the country in points per game (84.2).
- UConn vs. Illinois picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why UConn can cover
The Huskies have been utterly dominant for the second straight NCAA Tournament. They've trailed for a total of just 28 seconds over their first three games, and their 30-point victory over San Diego State on Thursday was the sixth-largest Sweet 16 margin of victory of all-time. Additionally, UConn's plus-86 point differential in March Madness 2024 is the second-largest in NCAA Tournament history for a defending champion through their first three games.
UConn leads the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, which is a big reason why it statistically has the most efficient offense in the nation. It is just as potent on the defensive end, as it allows the eighth-lowest field goal percentage in all of Division I. UConn is 8-2 against ranked teams this season, and it's posting an average margin of victory of 20.9 points over its current 10-game win streak. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why Illinois can cover
Two-time All-Big 10 first-team selection Terrence Shannon Jr. generates most of the offense for the Illini with 23.5 points per game, but Brad Underwood has a complete roster at his disposal. Marcus Domask is also a first-team selection and logged the 10th triple-double in NCAA Tournament history when he had 12 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in the first round versus Morehead State. Additionally, Coleman Hawkins fills up the box score for Illinois, leading the team in steals and blocks, ranking second in rebounds and assists, and ranking third in points.
Coleman's defensive prowess has spearheaded a turnaround on that end of the court for the Illini in March Madness. They've kept all three NCAA Tournament opponents under 70 points, after allowing an average of 82.1 ppg over their previous 10 games. That increased defensive effort could give the Huskies some trouble, especially considering that UConn has struggled from beyond the arc in the tournament. Connecticut is connecting on just 30.6% of its 3-pointers in the NCAA Tournament after making nearly 37% of attempts prior to March Madness. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make UConn vs. Illinois picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 153 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.
So who wins Illinois vs. UConn, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UConn vs. Illinois spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 152-109 roll on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.
