Teams looking to improve on their all-time bowl records meet in the 2019 Liberty Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31, when the Kansas State Wildcats clash with the No. 23 Navy Midshipmen. The Wildcats (8-4), who have outscored their opponents 368-258, are 9-12 all-time in bowl games, while the Midshipmen (10-2), who have outscored their foes 463-273, are 11-11-1 in bowl games. Kickoff is slated for 3:45 p.m. ET from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tenn. Kansas State is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games, while Navy has covered the spread in 13 of its last 16 contests. 

The Midshipmen are favored by 1.5-points in the latest Navy vs. Kansas State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 53.5. Before making any Kansas State vs. Navy picks of your own, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $4,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 8-2 on all picks against the spread during Championship Week. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Navy vs. Kansas State. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it's also generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the college football odds and trends for Navy vs. Kansas State:

  • Navy vs. Kansas State spread: Navy -1.5
  • Navy vs. Kansas State over-under: 53.5 points
  • Navy vs. Kansas State money line: Navy -125, Kansas State +104
  • NAVY: Averaging 363.7 rushing yards per game
  • KSU: Allowing 21.5 points per game

Why Navy can cover

The model has taken into account that Navy enters the Liberty Bowl with a chance to set school records in a number of offensive categories, including rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, rushing yards per game, total offense per game and total offensive yards per attempt. The Midshipmen enter Tuesday's matchup with the top-ranked rushing offense in the country, averaging 363.7 yards per game on the ground.

Supplementing quarterback Malcolm Perry's offense is a pair of fullbacks in sophomore Jamale Carothers and junior Nelson Smith. Carothers has carried 98 times for 712 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Smith has rushed 115 times for 570 yards and seven touchdowns. Carothers had a monster game Nov. 30 at Houston, carrying 18 times for 188 yards and five touchdowns, while Smith's best game was in the season opener against Holy Cross when he rushed 15 times for 96 yards and three scores.

Why Kansas State can cover

But just because the Midshipmen are tough to stop on the ground, does not guarantee they will win or cover the Navy vs. Kansas State spread in the Liberty Bowl 2019.

Kansas State is one of just 22 teams in the nation to advance to at least nine bowl games this decade, including one of four in the Big 12 (Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State). Since the Big 12's inception in 1996, the Wildcats rank third in the league in wins with 118, trailing only Oklahoma (153) and Texas (133). Plus, Kansas State is 6-0 against the spread in its last six games after allowing fewer than 20 points in its previous contest.

Senior running back James Gilbert is the Wildcats' top back, rushing 133 times for 698 yards and six touchdowns. He's had three 100-plus rushing games this season, including a 13-carry, 105-yard, one touchdown performance against Oklahoma on Oct. 26. For his career, Gilbert has carried 736 times for 3,504 yards and 36 touchdowns.

So who wins Navy vs. Kansas State? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Navy vs. Kansas State spread to jump on Tuesday, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $4,000 on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.