OK, College Football Playoff Selection Committee, it's now seemingly a pick 'em between Oklahoma and Ohio State for the fourth spot in the CFP. Complicating matters: Both teams did what they had to do in terms of last impressions. Too bad. It's decision time.
Oklahoma got revenge on its biggest rival, beating Texas, 39-27. Ohio State knocked off an outclassed Northwestern, 45-24. Both opponents were ranked. Both winners covered.
Now, what exactly are you going you do, committee?
It's fairly easy to slot the top three in the CFP field -- Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame. The choice is now between the only remaining one-loss teams in the country, unless you want to indulge the debate over two-loss Georgia. Let's take a look at their resumes.
Oklahoma is 12-1 and winners of seven in a row. The Sooners are 2-1 against ranked teams. Their only loss was by three at the gun to Texas on Oct. 6. OU's strength of schedule is 71st, and they have a 4-1 mark against teams with a winning record. We all know about the Sooners' offense: No. 1 in scoring, the highest-scoring offense nationally in five years. If it makes the field, OU's defense would be the worst (111th nationally) to play for a championship (since 1998 in the BCS era).
Ohio State is 12-1 and winners of five in a row after a significant black mark on its record -- that 29-point loss to Purdue on Oct. 20. The Buckeyes are 4-0 against ranked teams. OSU's strength of schedule is 49th, and they have a 4-0 mark against teams with a winning record. It finished in a flourish, at least offensively. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins threw 17 touchdowns in the final four games. In that sense, we at least know who the Buckeyes are as a team. That is, a lot like the Sooners.
Now the politics: If Ohio State doesn't make it, the Big Ten champion would be left out of the CFP for the third consecutive year. If Oklahoma makes it, the committee would have to consider a team heavily tilted toward offense. But what's the difference between last year and this year? The 2017 Oklahoma team was worthy but blew a 17-point first-half lead to Georgia in the Rose Bowl semifinal.
A late case was made for Georgia, 11-2, pretty much by Georgia. But the committee would have to swallow hard to include the Bulldogs. First, it would be placing two SEC teams in the bracket for the second consecutive year. The Dawgs would be the first two-loss team ever in the CFP. Sure, they were 4-2 against ranked teams. Their schedule strength prior to Saturday was No. 33.
Ohio State and Oklahoma have the edge by winning their conferences. "Championships won" are among those bullet points in the protocol considered by the committee. Georgia blew a two-touchdown lead in the second half in the SEC title game.
At the end of the day, this is the question: What teams make the playoff most credible? The committee is about tell us.
Here's how our College Football Playoff and bowls expert Jerry Palm has the top four projected. Palm has gone 16-for-16 predicting every CFP team in its correct slot through three years of the playoff.
College Football Playoff projection
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 7 | National Championship | 8 p.m. | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | 4/8 p.m. | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) Oklahoma |
Dec. 29 | Orange Bowl | 4/8 p.m. | Semifinal | (2) Clemson vs. (3) Notre Dame |
